The Twins lost out on Yu Darvish. And that's fine. I would have loved sign him as much as anyone but not for 126 million and definitely not for six years. Now that Darvish is off the board, the Twins are turning their focus to others like Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, and, more recently, Jake Odorizzi, who they acquired Saturday for minor league shortstop Jermaine Palacios.
A little background on Odorizzi: He's 27 years old and is under team control after the 2019 season. His best year came in 2015 when he posted a 3.35 ERA. His subsequent years haven't been as good, although they have been consistent. He pitched 187 innings in 2016 before injuries limited him to 143 innings last year. His ERA in both years was between 3.60 and 4.15. His ERA+ was 108 and 100 respectively. He was about as average as a pitcher can be.
An average pitcher is something the Twins could badly use. Only three members of the rotation topped 100 innings in 2017. One of those three (Kyle Gibson) had an ERA north of 5.00. Things got so bad that they had to sign Bartolo Colon in July. Adam Wilk, Nik Turley, Dietrich Enns and Nick Tepesch all started games. At minimum Odorizzi can be a stabilizing force who keeps things from going too far south between Santana and Berrios' starts.
One concerning thing with Odorizzi is that his numbers have gotten worse each year since his breakout. There isn't anything that jumps off the page, but his ERA, FIP, and walk rate have all steadily increased since 2015. His FIP has also been consistently higher than his ERA, indicating that's he's been luckier than average, but that might not be a huge issue in Minnesota. The Twins collectively saved 20 runs defensively last year and the Rosario-Buxton-Kepler outfield trio especially helps out fly ball pitchers like Odorizzi (48% fly ball rate last year).
His biggest issue last year was the long ball. His homer rate spiked to 15.5 from 12 in 2016, even as he gave up fewer hits per nine innings than he had his entire career. Again, the move to Minnesota could help that. Just in the last few years the Twins have seen improvements from pitchers who were plagued by homers in the past. Phil Hughes halved his rate when he arrived in 2014, and Ervin Santana's rate has remained consistent with the rest of his career despite arriving at Target Field at the beginning of the homerun boom in 2015.
The bottom line: Trading for Odorizzi is a low-risk move that could potentially pay off in a big way. The Twins are looking to take another step, and they can't do that without just some stability throughout the roster. Odorizzi isn't a flashy name, but he can provide that.
