Things are looking good as a Timberwolves fan. Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns have reinvigorated the franchise. Right now they're 7-8 after going 16-66 last year. Contrast that with the Philadelphia 76ers. At the moment they're 0-16. Last year they started off 0-17 en route to a 18-64 season. It's all because of GM Sam Presti's radical strategy of bottoming out for a high pick to potentially get a franchise player. It's a good strategy in theory, the more top picks you have the more likely you are to get a great player, but history says it just doesn't work.
The draft started in 1950, and since then the worst five teams were the '12 Bobcats, '73 Sixers, '93 Mavericks, '98 Nuggets and '87 Clippers. The Bobcats ended up with the number two overall pick and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. They've made the playoffs once since then as an eight seed in 2014 when they were swept by the Heat. The Sixers were rewarded for they're abysmal season in '73 with Doug Collins. 'Nuff said. They went on to make the playoffs four years later but mainly because they acquired Julius Erving. After the Mavericks went 11-71 in 1998 they didn't end up with Chris Webber, who went number one that year, but Jamal Mashburn. They would make the playoffs eight years later The Nuggets chose Raef LaFrentz, the Clippers took Reggie Williams. I could go on and on. My point is just being terrible doesn't work.
Need some more evidence? The top ten leaders in the NBA's average draft position is eighth overall. Yeah, it includes a few number one picks, most were outside the top five.
Obviously the ultimately goal for any franchise in any sport is to win a championship. If the Sixers are planning on doing that it will have been in a pretty uncommon way. Last year's champs, the Warriors best player was the seventh pick in his draft. (exactly one pick after Jonny Flynn. Damn you David Kahn) They took their second best player 11th. They took their third best player 35th. The finals MVP was an offseason acquisition. Before the Warriors the Spurs were champions. They had the first pick in 1997 when they took Tim Duncan and haven't picked in the lottery since then. Before that the Heat rode LeBron, Wade and Bosh to two straight Championships. Going back to 2011, the Mavericks beat the Heat. The Mavs hadn't drafted in the lottery in ten years. The two years before that the Lakers won with Kobe Bryant, who had been there since 1996 and Pau Gasol, who they had gotten in a lopsided trade with Memphis. If you want to go farther back than that, the Celtics won in 2008 after trading for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen.
In one paragraph I just went back to 2008, using a few minutes of sloppy research and a bunch of thoughts of the top of my head to point out how every champion was formed. They all had one thing in common: they were built on more than just drafting. So Sam Presti can keep dealing away every tangible asset for more picks, but the Sixers could have the most desolate future of anyone in the league.
Oh yeah, I forgot about you Brooklyn Nets.
Kirby Puckett
Saturday, November 28, 2015
Monday, November 16, 2015
Signing an Asian Prospect, Attempt Number Two
As you've likely heard by now, the Twins have won the rights to negotiate with Korean star Byung-ho Park with a bid of $12.85 million. This is the second time, the Twins have won the rights to an Asian player, the first being the infamous Tsuyoshi Nishioka. The Twins signed the highly touted Japanese middle infielder on December 16, 2010 and released him on September 28, 2012. Between those dates he hit .215/.267/.236. He also had a WAR of -2.4. In other words, you and I contributed more to the Twins than he did in that span. Go ahead and give yourself a pat on the back.
I spent the day researching Park and found out several things. 1. He flips his bat after almost every homer. This will irritate the crap out of Brian McCann when Park comes to the big leagues. Needless to say, this is a good thing.* 2. It is incredibly fun to watch someone hit homers and throw his bat as far as he can all while a very excited man screams in Korean in the background. 3. As for how he actually plays, it's hard to tell from just highlights, but there were several times he demonstrated the ability to hit the ball hard the other way. He can also field pretty well for someone his size (6'1", 236) so I wouldn't be surprised if Mauer played more DH this year.
*After I wrote that it came out that Park won't be flipping his bat in the majors. Disappointing.
A few days after getting the rights to Park the Twins traded Hicks to the Yankees. It was a fine deal for both teams, the Twins ended up with catcher John Ryan Murphy. Murphy should help the Twins' abysmal catching situation, with Kurt Suzuki batting .240/.296/314 last year. Murphy, a former second round draft pick, batted .277 last year in 67 games in 2015. Those two will likely begin the season platooning behind the plate but I could the job gradually becoming more and more Murphy's as the season progresses.
While I like that Terry Ryan's addressing the catching problem, I'm going to miss Hicks. All of last year I wanted to see the outfield combination of Rosario-Buxton-Hicks. All three of them can fly and have powerful arms. Now it's looking like Sano will be put in one of the corner outfield spots with Rosario filling the other and Buxton in center. That's not an awful idea, Sano's young and athletic enough that I think he can handle the outfield, I just have two major problems with it.
The first is how much the outfield defense will suffer replacing Hicks with Sano. I mentioned above how much ground the Rosario-Buxton-Hicks trio could cover, and the Royals have taught us how underrated it is having three good fielders in the grass. More importantly, Hanley Ramirez and the Red Sox have taught us how miserable it can be having an inept corner outfielder. While Sano will almost certainly be better than Hanley, we won't know for sure if he can make the adjustment until the season starts.
My second issue is that who they traded. After the Twins acquired the rights to Park, it became clear Hicks, Plouffe, or Rosario would have to go. I love Trevor Plouffe, he's a fine player and has turned himself into a reliable hitter and decent fielder in the last few years, but this is the best we're going to see from Plouffe. He's been in the league for five years and he 29 years old. The Twins had a nice surprise year last season but they're still a few years from contending. And Plouffe will never be anything but solid, hitting around .240 with homerun numbers in the low 20s and a lot of doubles.
Meanwhile Hicks is only 25 years old and had a breakout season last year, hitting .256/.323/.398 and a red-hot stretch in July when he hit .346/.424/.577. More importantly, Hicks has two elite skills that Plouffe lacks. One is fielding. Plouffe has improved at third base throughout his career but he'll never be Manny Machado there. Hicks on the other had has always been a terrific fielder, posting a UZR of 2.4 last year. The other skill Hicks has is speed, last year he was 13-16 on stolen bases. Plouffe has less than 13 stolen bases in his career.
The Twins made one good move, which lead to an extremely questionable one. We'll see how this plays out.
I spent the day researching Park and found out several things. 1. He flips his bat after almost every homer. This will irritate the crap out of Brian McCann when Park comes to the big leagues. Needless to say, this is a good thing.* 2. It is incredibly fun to watch someone hit homers and throw his bat as far as he can all while a very excited man screams in Korean in the background. 3. As for how he actually plays, it's hard to tell from just highlights, but there were several times he demonstrated the ability to hit the ball hard the other way. He can also field pretty well for someone his size (6'1", 236) so I wouldn't be surprised if Mauer played more DH this year.
*After I wrote that it came out that Park won't be flipping his bat in the majors. Disappointing.
A few days after getting the rights to Park the Twins traded Hicks to the Yankees. It was a fine deal for both teams, the Twins ended up with catcher John Ryan Murphy. Murphy should help the Twins' abysmal catching situation, with Kurt Suzuki batting .240/.296/314 last year. Murphy, a former second round draft pick, batted .277 last year in 67 games in 2015. Those two will likely begin the season platooning behind the plate but I could the job gradually becoming more and more Murphy's as the season progresses.
While I like that Terry Ryan's addressing the catching problem, I'm going to miss Hicks. All of last year I wanted to see the outfield combination of Rosario-Buxton-Hicks. All three of them can fly and have powerful arms. Now it's looking like Sano will be put in one of the corner outfield spots with Rosario filling the other and Buxton in center. That's not an awful idea, Sano's young and athletic enough that I think he can handle the outfield, I just have two major problems with it.
The first is how much the outfield defense will suffer replacing Hicks with Sano. I mentioned above how much ground the Rosario-Buxton-Hicks trio could cover, and the Royals have taught us how underrated it is having three good fielders in the grass. More importantly, Hanley Ramirez and the Red Sox have taught us how miserable it can be having an inept corner outfielder. While Sano will almost certainly be better than Hanley, we won't know for sure if he can make the adjustment until the season starts.
My second issue is that who they traded. After the Twins acquired the rights to Park, it became clear Hicks, Plouffe, or Rosario would have to go. I love Trevor Plouffe, he's a fine player and has turned himself into a reliable hitter and decent fielder in the last few years, but this is the best we're going to see from Plouffe. He's been in the league for five years and he 29 years old. The Twins had a nice surprise year last season but they're still a few years from contending. And Plouffe will never be anything but solid, hitting around .240 with homerun numbers in the low 20s and a lot of doubles.
Meanwhile Hicks is only 25 years old and had a breakout season last year, hitting .256/.323/.398 and a red-hot stretch in July when he hit .346/.424/.577. More importantly, Hicks has two elite skills that Plouffe lacks. One is fielding. Plouffe has improved at third base throughout his career but he'll never be Manny Machado there. Hicks on the other had has always been a terrific fielder, posting a UZR of 2.4 last year. The other skill Hicks has is speed, last year he was 13-16 on stolen bases. Plouffe has less than 13 stolen bases in his career.
The Twins made one good move, which lead to an extremely questionable one. We'll see how this plays out.
Monday, November 9, 2015
Free Agency Preview
Zack Greinke
David Price
There isn't a ton to say about these guys. They're both great, and they're both going to get a ton of money this offseason. For Price, all signs are pointing to him signing with the Cubs. As for Greinke, I would be very surprised if he did anything but the stay with the Dodgers. For the most part, I'm against giving pitchers big contracts. They almost always end badly. That said, if they sign with the Cubs and Dodgers respectively, it won't be too bad because those are both teams who have chances to make the playoffs during their time there. Bottom line: If you have a roster with a chance to go all the way soon, go ahead and sign him, if not, don't. It will end badly.
Johnny Cueto
Cueto self-destructed during the last half of the season, but because of two good starts in the playoffs, he's going to get paid like none of that happened. As ridiculous as that sounds, it's still a good gamble. He's only 29 and his time with the Royals could have been just a hiccup. As I mentioned, above, it's rarely a good idea to sign a pitcher to a long contract, but teams may have no choice for him. He'll get a big deal from someone contending.
Mike Pelfrey
His performance the last few years makes him an ideal fit for the Yomuri Giants of the Nippon Baseball League in Japan.
Jordan Zimmermann
Much like everyone else on the Nats, Zimmermann had an underwhelming season last year, going 13-10 with a 3.66 ERA. That said, even if he never comes back to his 2014 form, he's a reliable number two or three starter for any team looking for a starter but doesn't want to spend a ton of money, like Baltimore.
Matt Wieters
Wieters will never fulfill the expectations people had for him as a rookie, but he's a solid bat from the catching position if he's healthy, batting a career .258/.320/.422. The Twins have been rumored to be interested in getting him, needing somebody after Kurt Suzuki's disastrous season. Wieters excels in Suzuki's biggest weakness (and there are a lot of them) which is throwing out runners. Wieters threw out 31% last year, which would've been eighth in the league if he had qualified. I wouldn't be surprised if he got around three years for 31 million.
Chris Davis
After and unprecedented 53 homer season in 2013 and the follow up year from hell, we have a pretty good idea of who he is. He'll give you power, walks and not a lot else.
Yoenis Cespedes
The second half MVP is drawing interest from the Giants and Angels among others. He's a candidate to get 200 million.
Denard Span
Span was on of the reasons the Nationals disappointed so much last year, injuries forced him to play just 61 games. He was steady in those, however, batting .301/.365/.431. The Mets are supposedly interested in him. If he goes there he'll likely get something like the 4 year $60 Million deal they gave Curtis Granderson.
Dexter Fowler
Fowler is an interesting case. Along with having one of the best names in the league, he's flown under the radar for several years now, as a leadoff hitter and speed threat for several horrible Rockies and one Astros team. That changed this year when he was the catalyst for the power-hitting Cubs. He'll be 30 next year, so he should be good for the next few years.
Jason Heyward
Heyward's been in the league so long it's easy to forget he's only 26. Up until last year he was underperforming, always playing solid, but being capable of doing so much more. Last year he received whatever treatment the Cardinals give all of their players and became the guy he's been teasing us with since 2010: The statistician's best friend who draws a ton of walks, steal bases and cover a ton of ground in center field. I'd argue that he has the most value of anyone in this class.
Justin Upton
If I were a GM, there would be several rules I'd have for myself which I would make sure never to break. These are things like "don't sign a pitcher for longer than four years unless you absolutely have to" and "Don't give up on your prospects too soon". I mention this because another one of them would be "never sign or trade for a member of the Upton family under any circumstances". The are unrelentingly inconsistent, sign them and they will disappoint. Some sucker will give Justin 100 million. I'm betting on the Nationals. After a season from hell last year, Mike Rizzo is going to be making some big move this offseason, and they've got the money for it.
David Price
There isn't a ton to say about these guys. They're both great, and they're both going to get a ton of money this offseason. For Price, all signs are pointing to him signing with the Cubs. As for Greinke, I would be very surprised if he did anything but the stay with the Dodgers. For the most part, I'm against giving pitchers big contracts. They almost always end badly. That said, if they sign with the Cubs and Dodgers respectively, it won't be too bad because those are both teams who have chances to make the playoffs during their time there. Bottom line: If you have a roster with a chance to go all the way soon, go ahead and sign him, if not, don't. It will end badly.
Johnny Cueto
Cueto self-destructed during the last half of the season, but because of two good starts in the playoffs, he's going to get paid like none of that happened. As ridiculous as that sounds, it's still a good gamble. He's only 29 and his time with the Royals could have been just a hiccup. As I mentioned, above, it's rarely a good idea to sign a pitcher to a long contract, but teams may have no choice for him. He'll get a big deal from someone contending.
Mike Pelfrey
His performance the last few years makes him an ideal fit for the Yomuri Giants of the Nippon Baseball League in Japan.
Jordan Zimmermann
Much like everyone else on the Nats, Zimmermann had an underwhelming season last year, going 13-10 with a 3.66 ERA. That said, even if he never comes back to his 2014 form, he's a reliable number two or three starter for any team looking for a starter but doesn't want to spend a ton of money, like Baltimore.
Matt Wieters
Wieters will never fulfill the expectations people had for him as a rookie, but he's a solid bat from the catching position if he's healthy, batting a career .258/.320/.422. The Twins have been rumored to be interested in getting him, needing somebody after Kurt Suzuki's disastrous season. Wieters excels in Suzuki's biggest weakness (and there are a lot of them) which is throwing out runners. Wieters threw out 31% last year, which would've been eighth in the league if he had qualified. I wouldn't be surprised if he got around three years for 31 million.
Chris Davis
After and unprecedented 53 homer season in 2013 and the follow up year from hell, we have a pretty good idea of who he is. He'll give you power, walks and not a lot else.
Yoenis Cespedes
The second half MVP is drawing interest from the Giants and Angels among others. He's a candidate to get 200 million.
Denard Span
Span was on of the reasons the Nationals disappointed so much last year, injuries forced him to play just 61 games. He was steady in those, however, batting .301/.365/.431. The Mets are supposedly interested in him. If he goes there he'll likely get something like the 4 year $60 Million deal they gave Curtis Granderson.
Dexter Fowler
Fowler is an interesting case. Along with having one of the best names in the league, he's flown under the radar for several years now, as a leadoff hitter and speed threat for several horrible Rockies and one Astros team. That changed this year when he was the catalyst for the power-hitting Cubs. He'll be 30 next year, so he should be good for the next few years.
Jason Heyward
Heyward's been in the league so long it's easy to forget he's only 26. Up until last year he was underperforming, always playing solid, but being capable of doing so much more. Last year he received whatever treatment the Cardinals give all of their players and became the guy he's been teasing us with since 2010: The statistician's best friend who draws a ton of walks, steal bases and cover a ton of ground in center field. I'd argue that he has the most value of anyone in this class.
Justin Upton
If I were a GM, there would be several rules I'd have for myself which I would make sure never to break. These are things like "don't sign a pitcher for longer than four years unless you absolutely have to" and "Don't give up on your prospects too soon". I mention this because another one of them would be "never sign or trade for a member of the Upton family under any circumstances". The are unrelentingly inconsistent, sign them and they will disappoint. Some sucker will give Justin 100 million. I'm betting on the Nationals. After a season from hell last year, Mike Rizzo is going to be making some big move this offseason, and they've got the money for it.
Saturday, October 31, 2015
Observations Before Game Four
The Mets have looked overwhelmed
Last night's victory notwithstanding, the Royals have just overpowered the Mets so far. It's weird to say that considering the Mets are an Alex Gordon homer from being up 2-1 right now, but game two showed exactly why the Royals are up in this series. They saw 142 pitches and swung and missed six of them, they went 5-12 with runners in scoring position and Johnny Cueto, who's been pitching more like Mike Pelfrey than the guy he was on the Reds, gave up just two Lucas Duda singles en route the first World Series complete game since Jack Morris on 1991. I've been saying Royals in five since the beginning, and I'm sticking with that.
The Royals are the standard of how to build a contender
I mean, not counting the 20 or so years of futility before they got good. I mean going back to 2006, when Dayton Moore got the job as GM in Kansas City. Part of the reason this team is so good is because Moore knew what type of team to construct and stuck to the plan. KC had already taken Alex Gordon with the second overall pick the year before.
After whiffing on Luke Hochevar with the number one overall in 2006. Moore chose Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer numbers two and three in 2007 and 2008 respectively. In 2009, Zack Greinke had an ERA of 2.16 and won the Cy Young. Unfortunately, the Royals were still terrible and after the 2010 campaign he requested a trade. Moore dealt him to the Brewers for a group of players including Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain. Then he laid low and let everyone develop until this year, when he traded for Cueto and Ben Zobrist. Now they're two games from being champions. Well done, Mr. Moore.
Bartolo Colon pitching makes the world a better place
But you already knew that.
The power outage in game one was actually great
After there was a power outage in Fox's truck, we were sent to MLB International's feed of the game, with Matt Vasgersian and John Smoltz as the announcers. That inning and a half was terrific. They were a lot more relaxed than the Fox guys, Vasgersian just said what was happening, while Smoltz gave some pretty good analysis. Then Fox decided their viewers couldn't go fifteen minutes without hearing Joe Buck and Harold Reynolds and moved them into the MLB International area.
That was annoying. For as long as I can remember, Joe Buck has irritated the crap out of me. From the holier than thou reaction to Randy Moss mooning the Lambeau Field crowd to going out of his way to mention it when a pitcher has a no-hitter going to him not even attempting to be objective when his beloved Cardinals are playing. Reynolds is a good choice for a color guy in theory, he's charismatic and funny. Until he starts analyzing and says absolutely nothing of value. That leaves Tom Verducci. He's good, but can rarely get a word in with Reynolds saying the first thing that crosses his mind after every pitch.
David Wright deserves this
In a lot of ways he's the Met's version of Joe Mauer. Wright had his breakout year in 2005 when he was 22, Mauer a year later as a 23-year-old. They both had rough, injury filled years in 2011but still looked like easy future hall-of-famers before their production sloped downward quickly in 2014. They've both dealt with some unfair criticism from the over expecting local media. But last night, when Wright launched that homer into the left field seats, none of that mattered. He had been the face of the franchise for ten years and he had finally proved himself.
Last night's victory notwithstanding, the Royals have just overpowered the Mets so far. It's weird to say that considering the Mets are an Alex Gordon homer from being up 2-1 right now, but game two showed exactly why the Royals are up in this series. They saw 142 pitches and swung and missed six of them, they went 5-12 with runners in scoring position and Johnny Cueto, who's been pitching more like Mike Pelfrey than the guy he was on the Reds, gave up just two Lucas Duda singles en route the first World Series complete game since Jack Morris on 1991. I've been saying Royals in five since the beginning, and I'm sticking with that.
The Royals are the standard of how to build a contender
I mean, not counting the 20 or so years of futility before they got good. I mean going back to 2006, when Dayton Moore got the job as GM in Kansas City. Part of the reason this team is so good is because Moore knew what type of team to construct and stuck to the plan. KC had already taken Alex Gordon with the second overall pick the year before.
After whiffing on Luke Hochevar with the number one overall in 2006. Moore chose Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer numbers two and three in 2007 and 2008 respectively. In 2009, Zack Greinke had an ERA of 2.16 and won the Cy Young. Unfortunately, the Royals were still terrible and after the 2010 campaign he requested a trade. Moore dealt him to the Brewers for a group of players including Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain. Then he laid low and let everyone develop until this year, when he traded for Cueto and Ben Zobrist. Now they're two games from being champions. Well done, Mr. Moore.
Bartolo Colon pitching makes the world a better place
But you already knew that.
The power outage in game one was actually great
After there was a power outage in Fox's truck, we were sent to MLB International's feed of the game, with Matt Vasgersian and John Smoltz as the announcers. That inning and a half was terrific. They were a lot more relaxed than the Fox guys, Vasgersian just said what was happening, while Smoltz gave some pretty good analysis. Then Fox decided their viewers couldn't go fifteen minutes without hearing Joe Buck and Harold Reynolds and moved them into the MLB International area.
That was annoying. For as long as I can remember, Joe Buck has irritated the crap out of me. From the holier than thou reaction to Randy Moss mooning the Lambeau Field crowd to going out of his way to mention it when a pitcher has a no-hitter going to him not even attempting to be objective when his beloved Cardinals are playing. Reynolds is a good choice for a color guy in theory, he's charismatic and funny. Until he starts analyzing and says absolutely nothing of value. That leaves Tom Verducci. He's good, but can rarely get a word in with Reynolds saying the first thing that crosses his mind after every pitch.
David Wright deserves this
In a lot of ways he's the Met's version of Joe Mauer. Wright had his breakout year in 2005 when he was 22, Mauer a year later as a 23-year-old. They both had rough, injury filled years in 2011but still looked like easy future hall-of-famers before their production sloped downward quickly in 2014. They've both dealt with some unfair criticism from the over expecting local media. But last night, when Wright launched that homer into the left field seats, none of that mattered. He had been the face of the franchise for ten years and he had finally proved himself.
Friday, October 23, 2015
Thoughts on the Royals and Blue Jays, But Mostly the Royals
Tonight is the most important game in the playoffs so far. It may seem weird to say that when three of the four divisional series went the maximum five games, but this feels like a game seven. No team has even allowed the other to tie up the series at 3-3 after being up 3-1 and gone on to win game seven. Regardless of your opinions of whether momentum exists, that's just what's happened.
Besides, there' more at stake here than just a game. This is David Price's chance to prove that he can pitch in the postseason, John Gibbons quest to break the record for most pointless pitching changes in one series and the Royals chance to thumb their collective noses at all stat nerds all around the country.
That last point is why I like Kansas City so much. They don't hit a lot of homers, they don't walk very often, their pitchers don't strike guys out, yet they pull games out with the same formula every time: score a few runs early by hitting singles and stealing as many bases as possible. Then play great defense until they can hand it off to the bullpen in the seventh inning. They're the only team except for maybe the Cardinals who could have gone through the debacle that was Johnny Cueto while barely allowing it to affect their season after the trade deadline this year.
The Blue Jays are the polar opposite in styles of play. They're built on guys hitting bombs, leading the league with 232 homers this year. While the Royals win by outlasting their opponent, the Jays crush, pillage and destroy their opponents with both their lineup and dominant starting rotation. And that's why this series is so much fun. The contrasting styles make anything possible.
Back to the Royals. What I mentioned in two paragraphs ago all goes into the Cardinals-esque way they've been playing this year. I'm still bitter about how Kendrys Morales looked six levels beyond washed-up last year with the Twins and suddenly he's getting clutch playoff hits with the Royals this year. There is never a situation where they're out of a game.
In fact, the eighth inning in game four against the Astros was the best representative of their season. Down 6-2 with Will Harris pitching and the following happens: Rios singles, Escobar singles, Zobrist singles, Cain singles, driving in Rios, Hosmer singles, Zobrist, Morales reaches on a tough error by Carlos Correa and two more score. Suddenly in the matter of about 15 minutes the game's tied.
But it was what happened next that was the most amazing. After a Moustakas strikeout, Drew Butera came up. Butera is the definition of an all-field no-hit catcher. He started his career on the Twins and was basically that kid in little league who struck out every time he came to the plate. His career batting line is .185/.245/.266. He has 22 more career strikeouts than hits. What I'm trying to say is that he's really horrible.
Watching the game, I was expecting what I'm guessing lots of Twins fans were. A three pitch strikeout. But something weird happened. He took three balls and fouled off about nine more before drawing a tough, demoralizing walk. It turned out to be important, too as the next batter, Gordon grounded out, scoring Hosmer.
That's what's weird about the Royals, and that's why I'm taking them tonight to go to the World Series.
Besides, there' more at stake here than just a game. This is David Price's chance to prove that he can pitch in the postseason, John Gibbons quest to break the record for most pointless pitching changes in one series and the Royals chance to thumb their collective noses at all stat nerds all around the country.
That last point is why I like Kansas City so much. They don't hit a lot of homers, they don't walk very often, their pitchers don't strike guys out, yet they pull games out with the same formula every time: score a few runs early by hitting singles and stealing as many bases as possible. Then play great defense until they can hand it off to the bullpen in the seventh inning. They're the only team except for maybe the Cardinals who could have gone through the debacle that was Johnny Cueto while barely allowing it to affect their season after the trade deadline this year.
The Blue Jays are the polar opposite in styles of play. They're built on guys hitting bombs, leading the league with 232 homers this year. While the Royals win by outlasting their opponent, the Jays crush, pillage and destroy their opponents with both their lineup and dominant starting rotation. And that's why this series is so much fun. The contrasting styles make anything possible.
Back to the Royals. What I mentioned in two paragraphs ago all goes into the Cardinals-esque way they've been playing this year. I'm still bitter about how Kendrys Morales looked six levels beyond washed-up last year with the Twins and suddenly he's getting clutch playoff hits with the Royals this year. There is never a situation where they're out of a game.
In fact, the eighth inning in game four against the Astros was the best representative of their season. Down 6-2 with Will Harris pitching and the following happens: Rios singles, Escobar singles, Zobrist singles, Cain singles, driving in Rios, Hosmer singles, Zobrist, Morales reaches on a tough error by Carlos Correa and two more score. Suddenly in the matter of about 15 minutes the game's tied.
But it was what happened next that was the most amazing. After a Moustakas strikeout, Drew Butera came up. Butera is the definition of an all-field no-hit catcher. He started his career on the Twins and was basically that kid in little league who struck out every time he came to the plate. His career batting line is .185/.245/.266. He has 22 more career strikeouts than hits. What I'm trying to say is that he's really horrible.
Watching the game, I was expecting what I'm guessing lots of Twins fans were. A three pitch strikeout. But something weird happened. He took three balls and fouled off about nine more before drawing a tough, demoralizing walk. It turned out to be important, too as the next batter, Gordon grounded out, scoring Hosmer.
That's what's weird about the Royals, and that's why I'm taking them tonight to go to the World Series.
Saturday, October 10, 2015
Beginning of the Playoffs
Observations from the First Few Days
Jake Arrieta isn't human
But we already knew that. The wildcard dominance just reaffirmed it. In the second half, hitters hit .184/.204/.205 off of him scoring 12 runs. In 107.3 innings. That comes out to one run for every nine innings he pitched. If you're looking for someone to pull a Madison Baumgarner this year, he's the odds on favorite, and no one else is close.
Managers getting too cute
This isn't really specific to these playoffs but managers just seem to be trying too every year in the postseason, mainly while managing their bullpen. Last year Ned Yost inexplicably decided to put Yordano Ventura in the seventh inning of the wildcard playoff against the A's in 2014. This year, in game one of the Blue Jays-Rangers series Jeff Bannister pulled Yovani Gallardo after five innings in which he gave up two runs on 79 pitches. Yeah, you read that right. While Gallardo wasn't exactly cruising there's no reason to pull him just because he had given up one run the inning before. While it makes sense to be more careful in October, all the pitchers could be working for three weeks. It's just a nonsensical strategy.
Someone needs to give everyone on the Pirates a hug
Three years, three one game crapshoots in the playoffs and two frustrating exits. To put it bluntly: the playoff system is stupid. there is no reason for a one game playoff in a sport with as long of a season as baseball other than to make money and get some cheap excitement. This isn't fair to the Pirates, who have averaged 93 wins a season and deserve better than some gimmicky cry for attention from the MLB. That's been the rant. Now back to the regularly scheduled column.
Injury Report
Carlos Gomez: A strained intercostal has relegated Gomez to pinch running duties the first two games of the ALDS. He's been just as entertaining as usual, getting picked off in game two and drawing multiple throws in the first game. The Astros are being pretty noncommittal about his status but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the lineup in game three.
Adrian Beltre: After straining his back, Beltre missed half of game one of the Rangers-Blue Jays series and all of the second game. The Rangers are saying he's day-to-day, so with the day off my guess is that he plays in game three.
Players to watch
In two sentences or less
George Springer
He's 6'3" 215 pounds and goes all-out on every pitch, like Bryce Harper of a few years ago.
Yoenis Cespedes
Could become a god in Queens if he leads the Mets to the World Series.
Clayton Kershaw
Kershaw is under arguably more pressure this October than any other player. He's melted down in the postseason two straight years and needs to do well to shed the reputation as a choker.
UPDATE: Kershaw wasn't dominant, but pitched decently, going 6 and 2/3 innings and allowing three runs, although he ran into some trouble in the seventh inning in the Dodgers loss to the Mets on last night. The jury's still out.
Jake Arrieta isn't human
But we already knew that. The wildcard dominance just reaffirmed it. In the second half, hitters hit .184/.204/.205 off of him scoring 12 runs. In 107.3 innings. That comes out to one run for every nine innings he pitched. If you're looking for someone to pull a Madison Baumgarner this year, he's the odds on favorite, and no one else is close.
Managers getting too cute
This isn't really specific to these playoffs but managers just seem to be trying too every year in the postseason, mainly while managing their bullpen. Last year Ned Yost inexplicably decided to put Yordano Ventura in the seventh inning of the wildcard playoff against the A's in 2014. This year, in game one of the Blue Jays-Rangers series Jeff Bannister pulled Yovani Gallardo after five innings in which he gave up two runs on 79 pitches. Yeah, you read that right. While Gallardo wasn't exactly cruising there's no reason to pull him just because he had given up one run the inning before. While it makes sense to be more careful in October, all the pitchers could be working for three weeks. It's just a nonsensical strategy.
Someone needs to give everyone on the Pirates a hug
Three years, three one game crapshoots in the playoffs and two frustrating exits. To put it bluntly: the playoff system is stupid. there is no reason for a one game playoff in a sport with as long of a season as baseball other than to make money and get some cheap excitement. This isn't fair to the Pirates, who have averaged 93 wins a season and deserve better than some gimmicky cry for attention from the MLB. That's been the rant. Now back to the regularly scheduled column.
Injury Report
Carlos Gomez: A strained intercostal has relegated Gomez to pinch running duties the first two games of the ALDS. He's been just as entertaining as usual, getting picked off in game two and drawing multiple throws in the first game. The Astros are being pretty noncommittal about his status but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the lineup in game three.
Adrian Beltre: After straining his back, Beltre missed half of game one of the Rangers-Blue Jays series and all of the second game. The Rangers are saying he's day-to-day, so with the day off my guess is that he plays in game three.
Players to watch
In two sentences or less
George Springer
He's 6'3" 215 pounds and goes all-out on every pitch, like Bryce Harper of a few years ago.
Yoenis Cespedes
Could become a god in Queens if he leads the Mets to the World Series.
Clayton Kershaw
Kershaw is under arguably more pressure this October than any other player. He's melted down in the postseason two straight years and needs to do well to shed the reputation as a choker.
UPDATE: Kershaw wasn't dominant, but pitched decently, going 6 and 2/3 innings and allowing three runs, although he ran into some trouble in the seventh inning in the Dodgers loss to the Mets on last night. The jury's still out.
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
Breaking Down the Wildcard Race
The race for the second AL wildcard is coming down to the wire. Right now the Astros are clinging to a two game lead over and Twins and two and a half over the Angels. Here's a full breakdown of who will win.
Starting pitching
Its Gibson-Hughes-Santana-Duffy-Pelfrey for the Twins (and eventually Milone in for one of those guys when he comes back) vs. Richards-Shoemaker-Weaver-Heaney-Santiago with the Angels and Keuchel-McCullers-Kazmir-McHugh-Hernandez for Houston. We can rule the Twins out right away, although Gibson's having an underrated season and Duffy's been solid so far. I'll go with the Astros. Starters 3-5 are pretty similar for both teams, but Keuchel and McCullers are way better than anything the Angels can throw at you.
Edge: Astros
Lineup
The Astros have a brand of baseball unlike any other team in the league: hit the ball as far as you can and don't worry about anything else. They have hit the second most homers in the league at 209, behind only the Blue Jays and are also second in strikeout percentage, whiffing 23% of the time. Obviously Mike Trout gives the Halos a massive boost, but they have no chance against a deep Houston lineup.
Edge: Astros
Bullpen
Once again, the most obvious answer here is "not the Twins". The Astros, on the other hand have been no less than dominant. Led by Pat Neshek, Will Harris and Luke Gregerson, they've struck out over nine batters per nine innings, en route to a 3.20 ERA, good for third in the American league.
Edge: Astros
Defense
Even with Jose Altuve and Carlos Gomez, the Astros have no chance here because of their style of play. The Twins have the potential to be Royals-esque in the outfield with Hicks, Buxton and Rosario, but right now with Hunter in right field it's the Angels. Trout moves like a gazelle in center field, and David Freese is a solid fielding third baseman.
Edge: Angels
Bench
This one's a push. None of the teams can anyone who can make a real difference from behind the plate. Although the Twins can use Buxton as a pinch runner or defensive sub late in the game.
Edge: Twins
Overall
It should be the Astros. On paper, they're the best. They have the most talent, they've been the best all year, and yet somehow, they're not. Why that is is a column for later, but they're just faltering for whatever reason. I feel like the Twins are still a year away, so that leaves the Angels. They're red-hot right now during a perfect part of their schedule, it's theirs for the taking.
Edge: Angels
Starting pitching
Its Gibson-Hughes-Santana-Duffy-Pelfrey for the Twins (and eventually Milone in for one of those guys when he comes back) vs. Richards-Shoemaker-Weaver-Heaney-Santiago with the Angels and Keuchel-McCullers-Kazmir-McHugh-Hernandez for Houston. We can rule the Twins out right away, although Gibson's having an underrated season and Duffy's been solid so far. I'll go with the Astros. Starters 3-5 are pretty similar for both teams, but Keuchel and McCullers are way better than anything the Angels can throw at you.
Edge: Astros
Lineup
The Astros have a brand of baseball unlike any other team in the league: hit the ball as far as you can and don't worry about anything else. They have hit the second most homers in the league at 209, behind only the Blue Jays and are also second in strikeout percentage, whiffing 23% of the time. Obviously Mike Trout gives the Halos a massive boost, but they have no chance against a deep Houston lineup.
Edge: Astros
Bullpen
Once again, the most obvious answer here is "not the Twins". The Astros, on the other hand have been no less than dominant. Led by Pat Neshek, Will Harris and Luke Gregerson, they've struck out over nine batters per nine innings, en route to a 3.20 ERA, good for third in the American league.
Edge: Astros
Defense
Even with Jose Altuve and Carlos Gomez, the Astros have no chance here because of their style of play. The Twins have the potential to be Royals-esque in the outfield with Hicks, Buxton and Rosario, but right now with Hunter in right field it's the Angels. Trout moves like a gazelle in center field, and David Freese is a solid fielding third baseman.
Edge: Angels
Bench
This one's a push. None of the teams can anyone who can make a real difference from behind the plate. Although the Twins can use Buxton as a pinch runner or defensive sub late in the game.
Edge: Twins
Overall
It should be the Astros. On paper, they're the best. They have the most talent, they've been the best all year, and yet somehow, they're not. Why that is is a column for later, but they're just faltering for whatever reason. I feel like the Twins are still a year away, so that leaves the Angels. They're red-hot right now during a perfect part of their schedule, it's theirs for the taking.
Edge: Angels
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