I was going to make this next column about the dead man revival that is Jackie Bradley Jr.'s career, but then the Cavaliers stormed back in the NBA finals, blowing out he Warriors in Cleveland and potentially changing the landscape of NBA history, so there are more important things going on. With game seven tonight, let's jump into a preview, starting by looking at who has the most at stake going into the final game.
LeBron James
A win for the Cavs here, which doesn't happen without a killer LeBron performance, launches him into god status in Cleveland. As a side note, LeBron's been the most fun thing about these finals, both because he's fun to watch in general and because of his put-the-team-on-my-back mentality he played with the last two games. That was most evident after he barked at Curry after blocking is shot Thursday night. You may want to debate how effective trash talking is when the guy who's shot you blocked is six inches shorter than you, but the message was clear: The Cavs weren't losing, and LeBron was making sure of that.
Stephen Curry
If the Warriors lose this, then Curry will have been the best player on the greatest regular season team of all time, followed by a stunning finals loss, coming off of a championship the year before in which Curry didn't play as great as he usually does. It will be unfair, but it Dubs lose people will blame Curry.
Harrison Barnes
Outside of Curry, Barnes will shoulder the most blame if he keeps missing shots. I don't know why we would expect anyone else to receive more blame, considering Barnes has been getting blamed for things since he was at North Carolina.
Kevin Love
Tonight is Love's last chance to keep his time in Cleveland from being a total disaster. As much as I want to hate him for leaving the Timberwolves, I can't and not just because that trade worked out so well. Watching the finals, it's hard not to feel bad for him. He's been phased out of the offense and is now being used as a basic stretch 4. I would say Cleveland needs to utilize him more, but the way LeBron's playing it would be silly to do anything else at this point.
Those are the big ones, now let's run through some guys with some, but not quite as much at stake tonight.
Steve Kerr
Has the chance to become the first coach to win the finals in both of his first two years.
David Blatt
A Cavs win would validate his firing last winter, as bizarre as it was at the time.
Andre Iguodala
Looking for one more championship while hobbled, could end up as a great story.
Prediction
The LeBron and the Cavs have looked great, but teams in the NBA don't lose game sevens at home, and the Warriors don't lose in Oakland.
Warriors 107, Cavs 98
Kirby Puckett
Sunday, June 19, 2016
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
Machado vs. Harper vs. Trout
Manny Machado has unofficially joined the ranks of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout for top players in baseball. It's one of a lot of things that have happened so far in the season. So with that, I'm diving back in to break down who the best to build a team around is.
Age
Trout's the oldest of these guys, at 24. Harper and Machado are both 23, with the latter being about four months older than the former.
Edge: Harper
Big league resume
Harper and Machado both enjoyed mega-breakout seasons last year, launching them from pretty good players to superstars. However, Trout broke out in 2012 with maybe the greatest rookie season of all time, hitting .326/.399/.564 with 49 stolen bases, a campaign so great he nearly beat out the triple crown winning Miguel Cabrera for MVP. Trout may be a year older than Harper and Machado, but his body of work at still such a young age.
Edge: Trout
Hitting
This is the toughest category to decide. Harper had the highest batting average last year at .330, but he's still more of a brute power guy. After his first two years, Trout's been sticking around the .290-.310 range, right there with Machado. That said, Machado's swing couldn't be smoother, and unlike Harper's, which is a clearly that of a power hitter, his is one that has a good chance of winning a batting title some day.
Edge: Machado
Power
This one's easy. Harper's on the same level as Dave Kingman for power.
Edge: Harper
Fielding
We haven't seen anyone like Machado since A-Rod was in his prime, someone that tall and athletic who can play both third and short. Trout's been pretty good, saving five runs last year with his glove, according to fangraphs, but Machado is on a different planet, both in range and versatility.
Edge: Machado
Speed
One of the saddest developments in baseball over the last few years has been the erosion of Trout's speed on the basepaths. His rookie year he stole 49 bases, which, paired with his 30 homers made him look like an obvious candidate to join the 40-40 club eventually. Instead, his homers have increased each year, but his stolen bases have dropped, from 49 to 33 to 16 to 11. What was a big part of his game has been diminished, leaving him with one less dimension than he had before. That said, he has nine already this year, so it could be making a comback. Harper and Machado both steal a little bit but never have at the volume of Trout, even if it was a few years ago.
Edge: Trout
Overall
This is so close, I'd love to name it a three-way tie, but that would be a cop-out. Trout's the safest choice, since he has the largest body of work, but I'll give it to Harper because out of those three guys, he appears to have the most room for improvement, even though he had the best season of those three in 2015.
Edge: Harper
Age
Trout's the oldest of these guys, at 24. Harper and Machado are both 23, with the latter being about four months older than the former.
Edge: Harper
Big league resume
Harper and Machado both enjoyed mega-breakout seasons last year, launching them from pretty good players to superstars. However, Trout broke out in 2012 with maybe the greatest rookie season of all time, hitting .326/.399/.564 with 49 stolen bases, a campaign so great he nearly beat out the triple crown winning Miguel Cabrera for MVP. Trout may be a year older than Harper and Machado, but his body of work at still such a young age.
Edge: Trout
Hitting
This is the toughest category to decide. Harper had the highest batting average last year at .330, but he's still more of a brute power guy. After his first two years, Trout's been sticking around the .290-.310 range, right there with Machado. That said, Machado's swing couldn't be smoother, and unlike Harper's, which is a clearly that of a power hitter, his is one that has a good chance of winning a batting title some day.
Edge: Machado
Power
This one's easy. Harper's on the same level as Dave Kingman for power.
Edge: Harper
Fielding
We haven't seen anyone like Machado since A-Rod was in his prime, someone that tall and athletic who can play both third and short. Trout's been pretty good, saving five runs last year with his glove, according to fangraphs, but Machado is on a different planet, both in range and versatility.
Edge: Machado
Speed
One of the saddest developments in baseball over the last few years has been the erosion of Trout's speed on the basepaths. His rookie year he stole 49 bases, which, paired with his 30 homers made him look like an obvious candidate to join the 40-40 club eventually. Instead, his homers have increased each year, but his stolen bases have dropped, from 49 to 33 to 16 to 11. What was a big part of his game has been diminished, leaving him with one less dimension than he had before. That said, he has nine already this year, so it could be making a comback. Harper and Machado both steal a little bit but never have at the volume of Trout, even if it was a few years ago.
Edge: Trout
Overall
This is so close, I'd love to name it a three-way tie, but that would be a cop-out. Trout's the safest choice, since he has the largest body of work, but I'll give it to Harper because out of those three guys, he appears to have the most room for improvement, even though he had the best season of those three in 2015.
Edge: Harper
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
What's Wrong with the Twins and Other Storylines from the First week
As per tradition, I went into this season full of optimism and hope about the Twins, only to have them dashed less than a week in. But hope isn't completely lost, here's a look at what's going wrong and how it can improve.
Twins miserable start
Outside of the seven-nothing drubbing at the hands of the Royals on Saturday, the Twins haven't lost a game by more than three runs, including two that went into extra innings. Obviously there are a lot of issues here, but it's not all the roster's fault. One of those many issues is the anemic state of the offense. So far, they've scored an average of less than two runs per game. The Twins currently have two people in their normal, everyday lineup with batting averages above .200. Joe Mauer is hitting .400 and Eduardo Escobar is hitting .348. As for the rest of the lineup, Brian Dozier is hitting .182, Miguel Sano .158, Trevor Plouffe .150 and Byung-ho Park .167. Yes, I know the maximum number of at-bats anyone has is 23, but it's still concerning. At the very least it's a really rough coincidence that they're all in slumps at the same time. There aren't a lot of other areas you can look at to explain this slide. The rotation's been solid, with even Ricky Nolasco delivering his one good start of the season Sunday, pitching seven innings and allowing one run in a game subsequently blown by Perkins in the ninth. All we can do now is hope the offense improves.
Trevor Story
Not to sound like someone on ESPN who overreacts to everything, but I've never seen anything like this. That's because, well, nothing like this has ever happened. Story's set the record for both most homers in the first six games of a season and most homers in the first six games in a career- in the same week. At the moment he's on pace to hit 189 homers and drive in 324 runs. I won't insult you and tell you he isn't going to keep up that pace, but it should give you a good idea of how good he's been.
Injuries
We're barely over a week into the season and we've already seen two tough injuries to NL hopefuls. The first came before opening day, when A.J. Pollock fractured his elbow, putting him on the 60 day disabled list. Less than two weeks later, Cubs stud second year outfielder Kyle Schwarber tore his ACL in a collision with Dexter Fowler while going after a fly ball. He's out for the remainder of the season. As devastating as Schwarber's injury is for the Cubs, Pollock's creates an even worse outlook for the D-Backs. Even without Schwarber, the Cubs have a loaded roster with Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Addison Russell, and they're still favored in the NL. Meanwhile Pollock's injury kills any chance Arizona had of contending in a tough NL West. Paul Goldschmidt lost his protection, and it could be especially bad with Zack Greinke looking mortal, there's no chance of the Diamondbacks doing anything without Pollock.
Twins miserable start
Outside of the seven-nothing drubbing at the hands of the Royals on Saturday, the Twins haven't lost a game by more than three runs, including two that went into extra innings. Obviously there are a lot of issues here, but it's not all the roster's fault. One of those many issues is the anemic state of the offense. So far, they've scored an average of less than two runs per game. The Twins currently have two people in their normal, everyday lineup with batting averages above .200. Joe Mauer is hitting .400 and Eduardo Escobar is hitting .348. As for the rest of the lineup, Brian Dozier is hitting .182, Miguel Sano .158, Trevor Plouffe .150 and Byung-ho Park .167. Yes, I know the maximum number of at-bats anyone has is 23, but it's still concerning. At the very least it's a really rough coincidence that they're all in slumps at the same time. There aren't a lot of other areas you can look at to explain this slide. The rotation's been solid, with even Ricky Nolasco delivering his one good start of the season Sunday, pitching seven innings and allowing one run in a game subsequently blown by Perkins in the ninth. All we can do now is hope the offense improves.
Trevor Story
Not to sound like someone on ESPN who overreacts to everything, but I've never seen anything like this. That's because, well, nothing like this has ever happened. Story's set the record for both most homers in the first six games of a season and most homers in the first six games in a career- in the same week. At the moment he's on pace to hit 189 homers and drive in 324 runs. I won't insult you and tell you he isn't going to keep up that pace, but it should give you a good idea of how good he's been.
Injuries
We're barely over a week into the season and we've already seen two tough injuries to NL hopefuls. The first came before opening day, when A.J. Pollock fractured his elbow, putting him on the 60 day disabled list. Less than two weeks later, Cubs stud second year outfielder Kyle Schwarber tore his ACL in a collision with Dexter Fowler while going after a fly ball. He's out for the remainder of the season. As devastating as Schwarber's injury is for the Cubs, Pollock's creates an even worse outlook for the D-Backs. Even without Schwarber, the Cubs have a loaded roster with Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Addison Russell, and they're still favored in the NL. Meanwhile Pollock's injury kills any chance Arizona had of contending in a tough NL West. Paul Goldschmidt lost his protection, and it could be especially bad with Zack Greinke looking mortal, there's no chance of the Diamondbacks doing anything without Pollock.
Monday, April 4, 2016
MLB Preview 2016! NL Edition
This is part two of my MLB preview, if you missed the AL predictions you can see that here.
Asterisk indicates wildcard prediction.
East
Washington Nationals
This was the toughest pick to make. I spent a long time trying to decide between the Mets and Nationals and eventually went with the Nats. Dusty Baker is a perfect fit here after micromanager Matt Williams left. This team was so disappointing last year but many of the reasons for that are bounce-back candidates. Anthony Rendon and Wilson Ramos will both likely have better seasons, and Daniel Murphy and most of all Ben Revere will help out the team a lot.
New York Mets*
Regardless of my second place projection, this is a dangerous team. Obviously the biggest reason for that is the rotation. It's hard to see them getting swept too often considering Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard will pitch in every series if they're all healthy. Outside of the playoffs Daniel Murphy was pretty mediocre last year, so replacing him with Neil Walker will help the offense. It's really tough for me to pick these guys to finish in second; it's going to be a dogfight down the stretch against the Nationals.
Miami Marlins
This is a pretty interesting team. Giancarlo Stanton, Macell Ozuna, and Christian Yelich comprise one of the top young outfields in the game, and Dee Gordon became one of the best second basemen last year. The X factor for Miami is Jose Fernandez. If he can put out a full season's worth of production the Marlins will contend. If not, it will be another long season for the Fish.
Atlanta Braves
This is a rebuilding year for the Braves, rebuilding for a future that will come much quicker after the pillaging they pulled off on the Diamondbacks to get Dansby Swanson among others for Shelby Miller. Right now obviously the roster isn't anywhere near the playoffs, but it is underrated. The lineup in particular is better than they appear with a top four of Inciarte-Aybar-Markakis-Freeman.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies only have one big contract left in Ryan Howard. After that they'll be all set to rebuild without any distractions. This year, Maikel Franco will be the only bright spot on a very untalented team.
Central
Pittsburgh Pirates
I wrote a column about why the Pirates will win the Central in January. That explains it better than I could in one paragraph.
Chicago Cubs*
On paper, this is the best team in baseball, no doubt. But, I'm a little skeptical for a few reasons. The first is Jake Arrieta. Arrieta will be good in 2016, but it's just unrealistic to expect him to perform at the superhuman level he was operating on last year. In the second half, he posted a 0.75 ERA, and opposing hitters hit just .148/.204/.205 off of him. Arrieta's a great pitcher but to consistently pitch that well is impossible. The other reason is that they're the Cubs. There's 108 years of baggage on the franchise, they disappoint every year. Why have we forgotten this?
St. Louis Cardinals
I have a feeling I'm going to regret this prediction just because the Cardinals have a history of making the playoffs even when appearing to be declining. However, it's a little risky to take a team to win the division just of reputation. I just don't trust this team. Yadier Molina's been slowing down for the past few years, Father Time will eventually catch up to Matt Holliday, and I'm just not sure anyone will step up.
Milwaukee Brewers
There is nothing remotely interesting about the Brewers. Ryan Braun will have a decent year. Jonathan Lucroy is their best player, but could be traded. That's all.
Cincinnati Reds
Billy Hamilton and Joey Votto will be enough of a reason to keep an eye on the Reds, but there isn't much else there. Brandon Phillips isn't the same player as he was a few years ago, batting a respectable but not fantastic .294/.328/.395. He and Jay Bruce are both likely getting traded midseason this year.
West
San Francisco Giants
Between a terrific offseason and the Dodgers becoming just weak enough, I like the Giants in the West. They play in a graveyard of a ballpark, ideal for Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to have bounce-back years in, and Denard Span will slide seamlessly into the outfield to replace Nori Aoki. Even without considering the moves they made, this is just a very professional, well-run club. Led by Hunter Pence and Buster Posey, the Giants will go roaring back into the playoffs.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The fact that I don't have the Dodgers making the playoffs is a testament to how tough the NL is this year. The Giants' improvement and the Dodgers losing Greinke was just enough to tilt the West in favor of San Francisco. Corey Seager's a stud, and Kershaw's still the best pitcher in the game, but they have too many players on the decline with Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier and possibly even Yasiel Puig.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Well that was... eventful. Arizona had one of the best moves of the offseason, locking up Zack Greinke for only six years, as opposed to the eight David Price got from Boston, and the worst move, trading Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, and Ender Inciarte for Shelby Miller. Miller is a very young, talented pitcher who will be a solid number two for Greinke, but Swanson is a former number one overall pick, a 22-year-old shortstop with superstar potential, and Inciarte is an underrated outfielder, batting .303/.338/.408 with 21 stolen bases last year. Paul Goldschmidt is an MVP candidate but the D-Backs just don't have enough to compete in a tough NL, especially after A.J. Pollock's injury.
San Diego Padres
A wild offseason going into the 2015 reminded baseball fans everywhere that the Padres existed. After the disappointment of going 74-88, along with James Shields and Matt Kemp having underwhelming seasons the Friars are right back to where they were before: largely unknown and slightly below average.
Colorado Rockies
There are three reasons to watch the Rockies this year: Nolan Arenado, D.J. LeMahieu and seeing what they get for Carlos Gonzalez. Other than that I don't know what you're doing.
MVP: Bryce Harper
Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
Yeah, those are the two easiest answers, but there's a pretty good reason for that. You could talk me into Paul Goldschmidt for MVP, but voters tend to be swayed by winning. Outside of that, these are the two best players in the NL, no need to overthink this.
Rookie of the Year: Steven Matz
This race will come down between Matz and Corey Seager. I think Matz is a slightly safer choice than Seager, as he's a little older and we got a better look at Matz late last year
Asterisk indicates wildcard prediction.
East
Washington Nationals
This was the toughest pick to make. I spent a long time trying to decide between the Mets and Nationals and eventually went with the Nats. Dusty Baker is a perfect fit here after micromanager Matt Williams left. This team was so disappointing last year but many of the reasons for that are bounce-back candidates. Anthony Rendon and Wilson Ramos will both likely have better seasons, and Daniel Murphy and most of all Ben Revere will help out the team a lot.
New York Mets*
Regardless of my second place projection, this is a dangerous team. Obviously the biggest reason for that is the rotation. It's hard to see them getting swept too often considering Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard will pitch in every series if they're all healthy. Outside of the playoffs Daniel Murphy was pretty mediocre last year, so replacing him with Neil Walker will help the offense. It's really tough for me to pick these guys to finish in second; it's going to be a dogfight down the stretch against the Nationals.
Miami Marlins
This is a pretty interesting team. Giancarlo Stanton, Macell Ozuna, and Christian Yelich comprise one of the top young outfields in the game, and Dee Gordon became one of the best second basemen last year. The X factor for Miami is Jose Fernandez. If he can put out a full season's worth of production the Marlins will contend. If not, it will be another long season for the Fish.
Atlanta Braves
This is a rebuilding year for the Braves, rebuilding for a future that will come much quicker after the pillaging they pulled off on the Diamondbacks to get Dansby Swanson among others for Shelby Miller. Right now obviously the roster isn't anywhere near the playoffs, but it is underrated. The lineup in particular is better than they appear with a top four of Inciarte-Aybar-Markakis-Freeman.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies only have one big contract left in Ryan Howard. After that they'll be all set to rebuild without any distractions. This year, Maikel Franco will be the only bright spot on a very untalented team.
Central
Pittsburgh Pirates
I wrote a column about why the Pirates will win the Central in January. That explains it better than I could in one paragraph.
Chicago Cubs*
On paper, this is the best team in baseball, no doubt. But, I'm a little skeptical for a few reasons. The first is Jake Arrieta. Arrieta will be good in 2016, but it's just unrealistic to expect him to perform at the superhuman level he was operating on last year. In the second half, he posted a 0.75 ERA, and opposing hitters hit just .148/.204/.205 off of him. Arrieta's a great pitcher but to consistently pitch that well is impossible. The other reason is that they're the Cubs. There's 108 years of baggage on the franchise, they disappoint every year. Why have we forgotten this?
St. Louis Cardinals
I have a feeling I'm going to regret this prediction just because the Cardinals have a history of making the playoffs even when appearing to be declining. However, it's a little risky to take a team to win the division just of reputation. I just don't trust this team. Yadier Molina's been slowing down for the past few years, Father Time will eventually catch up to Matt Holliday, and I'm just not sure anyone will step up.
Milwaukee Brewers
There is nothing remotely interesting about the Brewers. Ryan Braun will have a decent year. Jonathan Lucroy is their best player, but could be traded. That's all.
Cincinnati Reds
Billy Hamilton and Joey Votto will be enough of a reason to keep an eye on the Reds, but there isn't much else there. Brandon Phillips isn't the same player as he was a few years ago, batting a respectable but not fantastic .294/.328/.395. He and Jay Bruce are both likely getting traded midseason this year.
West
San Francisco Giants
Between a terrific offseason and the Dodgers becoming just weak enough, I like the Giants in the West. They play in a graveyard of a ballpark, ideal for Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to have bounce-back years in, and Denard Span will slide seamlessly into the outfield to replace Nori Aoki. Even without considering the moves they made, this is just a very professional, well-run club. Led by Hunter Pence and Buster Posey, the Giants will go roaring back into the playoffs.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The fact that I don't have the Dodgers making the playoffs is a testament to how tough the NL is this year. The Giants' improvement and the Dodgers losing Greinke was just enough to tilt the West in favor of San Francisco. Corey Seager's a stud, and Kershaw's still the best pitcher in the game, but they have too many players on the decline with Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier and possibly even Yasiel Puig.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Well that was... eventful. Arizona had one of the best moves of the offseason, locking up Zack Greinke for only six years, as opposed to the eight David Price got from Boston, and the worst move, trading Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, and Ender Inciarte for Shelby Miller. Miller is a very young, talented pitcher who will be a solid number two for Greinke, but Swanson is a former number one overall pick, a 22-year-old shortstop with superstar potential, and Inciarte is an underrated outfielder, batting .303/.338/.408 with 21 stolen bases last year. Paul Goldschmidt is an MVP candidate but the D-Backs just don't have enough to compete in a tough NL, especially after A.J. Pollock's injury.
San Diego Padres
A wild offseason going into the 2015 reminded baseball fans everywhere that the Padres existed. After the disappointment of going 74-88, along with James Shields and Matt Kemp having underwhelming seasons the Friars are right back to where they were before: largely unknown and slightly below average.
Colorado Rockies
There are three reasons to watch the Rockies this year: Nolan Arenado, D.J. LeMahieu and seeing what they get for Carlos Gonzalez. Other than that I don't know what you're doing.
MVP: Bryce Harper
Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
Yeah, those are the two easiest answers, but there's a pretty good reason for that. You could talk me into Paul Goldschmidt for MVP, but voters tend to be swayed by winning. Outside of that, these are the two best players in the NL, no need to overthink this.
Rookie of the Year: Steven Matz
This race will come down between Matz and Corey Seager. I think Matz is a slightly safer choice than Seager, as he's a little older and we got a better look at Matz late last year
Sunday, April 3, 2016
MLB Preview 2016! AL Edition
It's baseball season. You all know what that means. Let's get started.
Asterisk indicates wildcard prediction.
East
Toronto Blue Jays
Coming off of a season where they made their first playoff appearance since 1993, the Blue Jays are returning with almost the same roster. David Price is their only major loss going into the season, but their offense will improve with Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo struggled last year after moving across the border, hitting .239/.317/.380 for the Jays. He's just too good of a player to continue being that bad.
New York Yankees
I'm done getting deceived by the Yankees. Every year they put out a roster that looks destined for 72 wins and every year they overachieve. That's why I don't care how unimposing everything about this team looks, I'm still picking them as a wildcard team. As for actual analysis, the Evil Empire doesn't have anyone in their lineup who will keep opposing pitchers up at night but no one who's Drew Butera levels of terrible. If Aaron Hicks gets a shot I could see him having a breakout year, he's going to excel with those short fences. And with the Betances-Miller-Chapman combination in the late innings, as long as their rotation is mediocre, they'll do well.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays aren't going to give up many runs, boasting a strong, young rotation led by Chris Archer. Their problem will be scoring runs. Last year, the Rays ranked 25th in the league in runs scored. They have some intriguing prospects on their way, but this is going to be another rebuilding year for the Rays.
Boston Red Sox
Am I missing something here? Why do people think the BoSox are going to be good? They gave David Price way too many years in free agency, and there's just too many holes here. They don't have any starting pitching behind Price, especially if they're relying on Joe Kelly to be anything better than terrible. (The right hander went 10-6 with a 4.82 ERA last year) The rest of the rotation is average at best. On offense, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, and Pablo Sandoval are all on the decline, Jackie Bradley is going to be 26 years old on April 19 and is a career .213 hitter and Rusney Castillo was a complete disaster last year. Mookie Betts is a reason to be optimistic, but there aren't too many others.
Baltimore Orioles
If there was a baseball version of the Monstars from Space Jam, this would be it. They're big, slow, and I wouldn't be surprised to find out one of them has eaten a person before. Between Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, and Pedro Alvarez, they're going to hit a lot of homers and strike out a ton. Unfortunately, those guys along with Manny Machado and Adam Jones won't be enough for a team with a rotation that lacks a true number one and was 26th in the league last year in FIP.
Central
Kansas City Royals
The defending champs are coming into 2015 with an almost identical roster to last year, losing only midseason acquisitions Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist over the winter. Projection systems hate them again, but that's because they have a very particular brand of baseball that can't be quantified. They play an old school style, concentrating on making contact and advancing runners, the exact thing advanced stats say doesn't work. But it clearly works for them, and their grip on the AL Central seems pretty secure.
Detroit Tigers*
The Tigers reign atop the AL central officially came to a close last year, and it won't get any easier in 2016. They'll improve assuming they have Miguel Cabrera for a full season. He only played in 119 games last year. Justin Upton will also help an aging offense. The pitching staff is decent with the exception of Mike Pelfrey, who I'm guessing the Tigers had never seen pitch before they signed him. Overall, this team is good enough to stay in the race, but this might be their last year.
Chicago White Sox
If you're looking for a potential sleeper playoff team, here it is. Chris Sale has quietly dominated for the last four years, posting a 2.95 ERA since 2012. The combination of acquiring Austin Jackson and being able to move Melky Cabrera to DH will improve a defense that ranked third to last in the league last year in defensive runs saved, and Todd Frazier will create an intimidating middle of the lineup duo with Jose Abreu. Ultimately, I don't think this team has the arms in their rotation behind Sale to make the playoffs, but this is an intriguing team.
Cleveland Indians
Advanced stats and mainstream media guys love the Indians. Last year Sports Illustrated picked them to win the World Series. Several months into the season, when it was clear they weren't as good an they thought, everyone at ESPN refused to admit they were wrong, considering them contenders up until the day they were eliminated. This year it's more of the same, with Cleveland projected to do well despite a mediocre roster.
Minnesota Twins
I'm saving my Twins thoughts for an extended column about them later, so I won't say too much here. Just know that I'm more optimistic than this fifth place prediction implies.
West
Houston Astros
The Astros are just the Cubs of the American league. They haven't won anything in a really long time but now have a hopeful future with some young, hyped prospects. While Carlos Correa will only continue to get better, I think George Springer is the most important player in Houston this year. In parts of two years in the big leagues, he's shown a rare combination of the ability to get on base along with elite power. Springer's been effective but hampered by injuries the last two years, so this is his big shot to prove he can be productive over a full season.
Texas Rangers*
This is just a really good, well balanced team. You can't poke holes anywhere in there roster because they're just solid all-around. Rougned Odor was very underrated last year, providing some pop from second base, especially in the second half of the season. Also, Joey Gallo could potentially make a pretty good lineup terrifying for pitchers if he's ready this season.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels have the best player of the of the 2000s, the guy who will likely go on to be the best player for the next 10 to 12 years, and the best defensive shortstop in the game. Their problem is the rest of the roster. Garrett Richards was serviceable last year but nowhere near the Cy Young contender he was in 2014. Andrelton Simmons will help on defense, but he hasn't proven that he can hit and was their only major offseason acquisition. This is just an overall mediocre roster, in danger of wasting Mike Trout.
Seattle Mariners
This is an interesting team. Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, and Nelson Cruz will all keep opposing pitchers up at night, and Nori Aoki has been one of the most underrated players in the league since he joined, batting .287/.353/.380 in San Francisco last year. This is another sleeper.
Oakland Athletics
Historians will look back on the A's of this era as one of the greatest wasted opportunities in the sport. In 2014 they had Josh Donaldson, Jeff Samardzija, Jon Lester and Sonny Gray and somehow botched it worse than Phil Cuzzi botched the call on Joe Mauer's would-be double in the 2009 playoffs. By Opening Day 2015, Lester had left via free agency, they traded Donaldson to Toronto for peanuts monkeys eat at the circus, Samardzija to the White Sox for poop monkeys fling at each other and poor Gray was stuck as the last decent player in Oakland. Then, just in case they hadn't already made enough stupid moves, they traded their best shortstop prospect, Daniel Robertson to Tampa Bay for Ben Zobrist... who they traded to the Cubs at the trade deadline for considerably less a few months later. Now they're stuck in baseball purgatory, just waiting for enough prospects to come up to improve.
Awards
MVP: Mike Trout
I know the national media has a collective man crush on Carlos Correa, but he just hasn't proved that he can play on an MVP level yet. Trout's the best player on the planet, and there don't seem to be too many contenders this year.
Cy Young: Chris Sale
See what I said about Sale in the paragraph about the Sox. He's been a great pitcher for a long time, I picked him last year, it's finally his turn.
Rookie of the Year: Byung Ho Park
ROY is always the toughest category to pick simply because there are so many candidates who we don't even know are going to see time in the big leagues this year. I ultimately chose Park because he's one of the few rookies we know will get an opportunity this year.
NL Coming Tomorrow!
Asterisk indicates wildcard prediction.
East
Toronto Blue Jays
Coming off of a season where they made their first playoff appearance since 1993, the Blue Jays are returning with almost the same roster. David Price is their only major loss going into the season, but their offense will improve with Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo struggled last year after moving across the border, hitting .239/.317/.380 for the Jays. He's just too good of a player to continue being that bad.
New York Yankees
I'm done getting deceived by the Yankees. Every year they put out a roster that looks destined for 72 wins and every year they overachieve. That's why I don't care how unimposing everything about this team looks, I'm still picking them as a wildcard team. As for actual analysis, the Evil Empire doesn't have anyone in their lineup who will keep opposing pitchers up at night but no one who's Drew Butera levels of terrible. If Aaron Hicks gets a shot I could see him having a breakout year, he's going to excel with those short fences. And with the Betances-Miller-Chapman combination in the late innings, as long as their rotation is mediocre, they'll do well.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays aren't going to give up many runs, boasting a strong, young rotation led by Chris Archer. Their problem will be scoring runs. Last year, the Rays ranked 25th in the league in runs scored. They have some intriguing prospects on their way, but this is going to be another rebuilding year for the Rays.
Boston Red Sox
Am I missing something here? Why do people think the BoSox are going to be good? They gave David Price way too many years in free agency, and there's just too many holes here. They don't have any starting pitching behind Price, especially if they're relying on Joe Kelly to be anything better than terrible. (The right hander went 10-6 with a 4.82 ERA last year) The rest of the rotation is average at best. On offense, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, and Pablo Sandoval are all on the decline, Jackie Bradley is going to be 26 years old on April 19 and is a career .213 hitter and Rusney Castillo was a complete disaster last year. Mookie Betts is a reason to be optimistic, but there aren't too many others.
Baltimore Orioles
If there was a baseball version of the Monstars from Space Jam, this would be it. They're big, slow, and I wouldn't be surprised to find out one of them has eaten a person before. Between Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, and Pedro Alvarez, they're going to hit a lot of homers and strike out a ton. Unfortunately, those guys along with Manny Machado and Adam Jones won't be enough for a team with a rotation that lacks a true number one and was 26th in the league last year in FIP.
Central
Kansas City Royals
The defending champs are coming into 2015 with an almost identical roster to last year, losing only midseason acquisitions Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist over the winter. Projection systems hate them again, but that's because they have a very particular brand of baseball that can't be quantified. They play an old school style, concentrating on making contact and advancing runners, the exact thing advanced stats say doesn't work. But it clearly works for them, and their grip on the AL Central seems pretty secure.
Detroit Tigers*
The Tigers reign atop the AL central officially came to a close last year, and it won't get any easier in 2016. They'll improve assuming they have Miguel Cabrera for a full season. He only played in 119 games last year. Justin Upton will also help an aging offense. The pitching staff is decent with the exception of Mike Pelfrey, who I'm guessing the Tigers had never seen pitch before they signed him. Overall, this team is good enough to stay in the race, but this might be their last year.
Chicago White Sox
If you're looking for a potential sleeper playoff team, here it is. Chris Sale has quietly dominated for the last four years, posting a 2.95 ERA since 2012. The combination of acquiring Austin Jackson and being able to move Melky Cabrera to DH will improve a defense that ranked third to last in the league last year in defensive runs saved, and Todd Frazier will create an intimidating middle of the lineup duo with Jose Abreu. Ultimately, I don't think this team has the arms in their rotation behind Sale to make the playoffs, but this is an intriguing team.
Cleveland Indians
Advanced stats and mainstream media guys love the Indians. Last year Sports Illustrated picked them to win the World Series. Several months into the season, when it was clear they weren't as good an they thought, everyone at ESPN refused to admit they were wrong, considering them contenders up until the day they were eliminated. This year it's more of the same, with Cleveland projected to do well despite a mediocre roster.
Minnesota Twins
I'm saving my Twins thoughts for an extended column about them later, so I won't say too much here. Just know that I'm more optimistic than this fifth place prediction implies.
West
Houston Astros
The Astros are just the Cubs of the American league. They haven't won anything in a really long time but now have a hopeful future with some young, hyped prospects. While Carlos Correa will only continue to get better, I think George Springer is the most important player in Houston this year. In parts of two years in the big leagues, he's shown a rare combination of the ability to get on base along with elite power. Springer's been effective but hampered by injuries the last two years, so this is his big shot to prove he can be productive over a full season.
Texas Rangers*
This is just a really good, well balanced team. You can't poke holes anywhere in there roster because they're just solid all-around. Rougned Odor was very underrated last year, providing some pop from second base, especially in the second half of the season. Also, Joey Gallo could potentially make a pretty good lineup terrifying for pitchers if he's ready this season.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels have the best player of the of the 2000s, the guy who will likely go on to be the best player for the next 10 to 12 years, and the best defensive shortstop in the game. Their problem is the rest of the roster. Garrett Richards was serviceable last year but nowhere near the Cy Young contender he was in 2014. Andrelton Simmons will help on defense, but he hasn't proven that he can hit and was their only major offseason acquisition. This is just an overall mediocre roster, in danger of wasting Mike Trout.
Seattle Mariners
This is an interesting team. Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, and Nelson Cruz will all keep opposing pitchers up at night, and Nori Aoki has been one of the most underrated players in the league since he joined, batting .287/.353/.380 in San Francisco last year. This is another sleeper.
Oakland Athletics
Historians will look back on the A's of this era as one of the greatest wasted opportunities in the sport. In 2014 they had Josh Donaldson, Jeff Samardzija, Jon Lester and Sonny Gray and somehow botched it worse than Phil Cuzzi botched the call on Joe Mauer's would-be double in the 2009 playoffs. By Opening Day 2015, Lester had left via free agency, they traded Donaldson to Toronto for peanuts monkeys eat at the circus, Samardzija to the White Sox for poop monkeys fling at each other and poor Gray was stuck as the last decent player in Oakland. Then, just in case they hadn't already made enough stupid moves, they traded their best shortstop prospect, Daniel Robertson to Tampa Bay for Ben Zobrist... who they traded to the Cubs at the trade deadline for considerably less a few months later. Now they're stuck in baseball purgatory, just waiting for enough prospects to come up to improve.
Awards
MVP: Mike Trout
I know the national media has a collective man crush on Carlos Correa, but he just hasn't proved that he can play on an MVP level yet. Trout's the best player on the planet, and there don't seem to be too many contenders this year.
Cy Young: Chris Sale
See what I said about Sale in the paragraph about the Sox. He's been a great pitcher for a long time, I picked him last year, it's finally his turn.
Rookie of the Year: Byung Ho Park
ROY is always the toughest category to pick simply because there are so many candidates who we don't even know are going to see time in the big leagues this year. I ultimately chose Park because he's one of the few rookies we know will get an opportunity this year.
NL Coming Tomorrow!
Sunday, March 27, 2016
Francisco Lindor
I'll never forget the first time I watched Francisco Lindor play. It was the summer of 2010, and he was on an under-18 all-American team. They were touring the country and had come to my hometown to play against the local town ball team. I went with a couple friends because we had heard that Bryce Harper would be there. It turned out that Scott Boras had convinced him to leave the team because he was getting close to being drafted. Just one more reason to hate Scott Boras. Anyway, that was disappointing but it was clear from the beginning there were quite a few future big leaguers on the team. Lindor popped out to me right a way for a couple reasons. The first was his obvious charisma. He had an easygoing nature about him, appearing relaxed and having fun. After every pitch, he and the second baseman had to run up the middle to back up the throw from the catcher, even with no one on base. Every time they went there they high-fived. He just seemed to be enjoying himself. He also stood out because of the way the P.A. announcer tried way too hard to get the accent right with his name: "Now batting, Fran-CEE-sco LEEN-dor."
Five years later, Lindor enjoyed an excellent rookie campaign for the Indians, batting .313/.352/.482 en route to getting robbed by the voters in Rookie of the Year voting. (Carlos Correa hit .282/.346/.496 with far worse defense than Lindor.) While his calling card continues to be his terrific fielding at shortstop, saving 10 runs there in 2015 while playing just 98 games, he showed an advanced approach at the plate last year; he took almost 30% of all of his balls in play to the opposite field.
Projections haven't been kind to Lindor going into next season. Most people who think he'll regress cite his .348 batting average on balls in play. And while he won't repeat that in 2016, there are reasons to believe it won't go down as much as some think. For starters, there's the aforementioned 30% of balls to the opposite field stat. In lots of situations the people riding BABIP are getting lucky. However, the fact that Lindor can take so many balls the other way seem to demonstrate that he knows how to hit it where they ain't, which will keep opponents from using any shifts on him.
Also, typically it's a cause for alarm when somebody's BABIP makes a sudden jump in one season. Kurt Suzuki in 2014 is the perfect example of that. His entire career he had never had a BABIP higher than .269, and it was often lower than that. Then suddenly in 2014, it ballooned to .328 in the first half. There was no precedent, it just happened and ultimately suckered the Twins into giving him a two year extension. But last season wasn't like that for Lindor, all throughout his career in the minors, his batting average on balls in play has been consistently high, including hitting .328 in that area in 2015 before coming to Cleveland.
In the midst of the national media's love affair with Carlos Correa this offseason, many have forgotten about Lindor, considering him a great fielding shortstop with no chance of repeating his 2015 BABIP-fueled hitting season. And that's fine. He can keep a low profile playing in Cleveland his whole career it won't matter after he has another terrific season.
Five years later, Lindor enjoyed an excellent rookie campaign for the Indians, batting .313/.352/.482 en route to getting robbed by the voters in Rookie of the Year voting. (Carlos Correa hit .282/.346/.496 with far worse defense than Lindor.) While his calling card continues to be his terrific fielding at shortstop, saving 10 runs there in 2015 while playing just 98 games, he showed an advanced approach at the plate last year; he took almost 30% of all of his balls in play to the opposite field.
Projections haven't been kind to Lindor going into next season. Most people who think he'll regress cite his .348 batting average on balls in play. And while he won't repeat that in 2016, there are reasons to believe it won't go down as much as some think. For starters, there's the aforementioned 30% of balls to the opposite field stat. In lots of situations the people riding BABIP are getting lucky. However, the fact that Lindor can take so many balls the other way seem to demonstrate that he knows how to hit it where they ain't, which will keep opponents from using any shifts on him.
Also, typically it's a cause for alarm when somebody's BABIP makes a sudden jump in one season. Kurt Suzuki in 2014 is the perfect example of that. His entire career he had never had a BABIP higher than .269, and it was often lower than that. Then suddenly in 2014, it ballooned to .328 in the first half. There was no precedent, it just happened and ultimately suckered the Twins into giving him a two year extension. But last season wasn't like that for Lindor, all throughout his career in the minors, his batting average on balls in play has been consistently high, including hitting .328 in that area in 2015 before coming to Cleveland.
In the midst of the national media's love affair with Carlos Correa this offseason, many have forgotten about Lindor, considering him a great fielding shortstop with no chance of repeating his 2015 BABIP-fueled hitting season. And that's fine. He can keep a low profile playing in Cleveland his whole career it won't matter after he has another terrific season.
Friday, February 26, 2016
Evolution of Strategy
It's late February, and that can only mean one thing: Spring training's beginning. That also means something: the Red Sox are now favored to win a wide open AL East after spending way too much money on one or multiple players during the offseason. After slowly becoming more and more like the Yankees since their World Series victory in 2004 by treating free agency like a monkey throwing whatever he can get his hands on at a dartboard, they need to face the reality. And that reality is the fact that their strategy doesn't work.
In 2015 the Sox underperformed, going 78-84 after signing Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez the previous winter for a combined $183 million. I hate to sound like a jerk here, but the moves made no sense. They already had a shortstop in Xander Bogaerts, and Sandoval couldn't play anywhere but third, so they had to move Hanley to left field; we all know how that worked out. Two years earlier, in 2013, they won the World Series. The previous offseason, the only moves they made were smaller, but filled a specific need: aquiring Jonny Gomes, David Ross, Stephen Drew, Shane Victorino Koji Uehara. The two years before, they missed the playoffs, despite having signed Carl Crawford and traded for Adrian Gonzalez. My point is, the Red Sox have proven that they know how to win, and it's the opposite of what they've been doing lately.
Compare the Red Sox to the Giants. Being in San Francisco, you can't call the Giants "small market", but they're run like one. Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Duffy, Joe Panik, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford are all home-grown talent. The players they didn't draft all have relatively small contracts and filled a hole on the team, like Hunter Pence or Tim Hudson. And that strategy's worked for them, winning three World Series this decade.
In fact, the Red Sox are one of the few teams who have stuck with the strategy of handing out big contracts as their primary manner of business. Look at the most recent World Series winners. The Royals, aforementioned Giants and Red Sox and Cardinals were all built from the ground up.
Even the Yankees, once considered the epitome of big spending have slowly begun to ease up on the contracts. Since 2010, they've only signed four guys to contracts longer than four years, a C.C. Sabathia extension in 2012, a seven year deal to Jacoby Ellsbury, seven years for Masahiro Tanaka and a five year contract to Mr. God's Gift to Baseball Brian McCann all in the offseason of 2014. In the past two years, they've been gradually getting younger. Dellin Betances has done terrifically since his rookie season in 2014, and Rob Refsnyder and Greg Bird both made their debuts in 2015. By 2018, New York will only have three undesirable contracts on the books. They'll be getting more fiscally responsible, younger and reliant on their farm system, much like the rest of the league.
In 2015 the Sox underperformed, going 78-84 after signing Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez the previous winter for a combined $183 million. I hate to sound like a jerk here, but the moves made no sense. They already had a shortstop in Xander Bogaerts, and Sandoval couldn't play anywhere but third, so they had to move Hanley to left field; we all know how that worked out. Two years earlier, in 2013, they won the World Series. The previous offseason, the only moves they made were smaller, but filled a specific need: aquiring Jonny Gomes, David Ross, Stephen Drew, Shane Victorino Koji Uehara. The two years before, they missed the playoffs, despite having signed Carl Crawford and traded for Adrian Gonzalez. My point is, the Red Sox have proven that they know how to win, and it's the opposite of what they've been doing lately.
Compare the Red Sox to the Giants. Being in San Francisco, you can't call the Giants "small market", but they're run like one. Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Duffy, Joe Panik, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford are all home-grown talent. The players they didn't draft all have relatively small contracts and filled a hole on the team, like Hunter Pence or Tim Hudson. And that strategy's worked for them, winning three World Series this decade.
In fact, the Red Sox are one of the few teams who have stuck with the strategy of handing out big contracts as their primary manner of business. Look at the most recent World Series winners. The Royals, aforementioned Giants and Red Sox and Cardinals were all built from the ground up.
Even the Yankees, once considered the epitome of big spending have slowly begun to ease up on the contracts. Since 2010, they've only signed four guys to contracts longer than four years, a C.C. Sabathia extension in 2012, a seven year deal to Jacoby Ellsbury, seven years for Masahiro Tanaka and a five year contract to Mr. God's Gift to Baseball Brian McCann all in the offseason of 2014. In the past two years, they've been gradually getting younger. Dellin Betances has done terrifically since his rookie season in 2014, and Rob Refsnyder and Greg Bird both made their debuts in 2015. By 2018, New York will only have three undesirable contracts on the books. They'll be getting more fiscally responsible, younger and reliant on their farm system, much like the rest of the league.
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