Figuring Out Matt Kemp

      What if I told you that Matt Kemp was an MVP candidate, batting .313 with 17 homers through 99 games with the Los Angeles Dodgers? Follow-up question: what if I told you it isn't 2011? After four years split between San Diego and Atlanta, where he was more or less an average player, (.269/.310/470 and an OPS+ of 109) he's back in Dodger Stadium, at age 33, hitting like nothing's changed.

    Part of that can be explained somewhat easily. It's a little disappointing to point out, but Kemp's batting average on balls in play is higher this year than any other season of his career. At the moment, his BABIP is .369, above his career average. With that said, that career average is .340, so he's only 29 points above what might be expected of him. That may seem like a lot, but with all the mountains and valleys BABIP goes through, it's far less than lucky stretches others have had in just the last few years. A spike of over 50 points for a half isn't uncommon. To use a local example, Kurt Suzuki's average on balls in play was .328 in the first half of his all-star 2014 campaign. He is .273 for his career. Beyond that, Suzuki never had the same kind of track record that Kemp has had through his career before the last few years.

     Another trend that helps explain Kemp's season is his fly ball rate. Most of his career, it's hovered between 35 and 40 percent. Early in his career, that worked for him, but as he's gotten older things have been a little rockier. Following a solid 2014 campaign in Los Angeles, that rate held steady the next year in San Diego. But with Petco Park's notoriously cavernous outfield, his overall numbers dropped across the board. The next year was more of the same. Kemp hit .268/.304/.499 splitting the season between the Padres and Braves. In 2017, his only full year in Atlanta, Kemp got a few more hits (.276) and got on base slightly more often (.318) but his power numbers dwindled. Not coincidentally, that season his flyball rate was just 28 percent, his lowest in any full season of his career. 

     It was after that year the Braves dealt Kemp back to LA in what at the time was basically a salary dump for the Dodgers. They shed about $50 dollars worth of Adrian Gonzalez, Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir and at the time it looked like there was going to be a new home for Kemp as well, with rumors swirling around of him potentially landing in Milwaukee.  

     He didn't go there, and now he's right back where he was in his prime, both literally and figuratively. Aside from the hiccup in 2017, Kemp's largely been the same player his entire career. He hits lots of fly balls, few grounders and for most of his career that's worked for him. His game was perfect for Dodger Stadium his near-MVP season and it still is now. In San Diego he was the same player but couldn't adjust to the deeper dimensions. Now that he's back, it's just more of the same.

The Phillies? The Phillies!

     I can't believe I'm writing this. After the first week of the season, I was enjoying nothing more than watching the Phillies self-destruct before we even got into April. I was having fun predicting when Gabe Kapler would get fired, how many times Pedro Florimon would pitch, the specific date fans would begin throwing things on the field. Then something weird happened. The Phillies started winning. It wasn't gradual, it was like someone flipped a switch. Out of nowhere, Philadelphia fans were back to being as insufferable as they always are. Now, as we get into June, let's take a look at why the Phillies have been successful to the point that they're knocking on the door of the division lead.
     Odubel Herrera comes to mind. We'll get to him but he's not the biggest reason why Philadelphia is back. That would be the pitching. Gabe Kapler's doing the same thing with them as he was at the beginning of the year, pulling his starters an almost annoyingly early in the game- but now it's working. Number one starter Aaron Nola is fourth in baseball in innings pitched. To find another Phillie you need to travel all the way down to number 83 where Nick Pivetta sits. The strategy's paid off. Under the reduced workload the rotation has posted a collective ERA of 3.33, good for fourth best in the National League.
     With that strategy in place, it seems ironic that the most successful would be Nola, who carries the biggest workload of the group. Nola, in 84 innings pitched, has posted a 2.35 ERA while striking out 8.5 patters per nine innings. But when the other four starters are on the mound, the Phils go to their bullpen much more often. Edubray Ramos has been nothing short of dominant, pitching 22 innings with a miniscule 0.81 ERA.
     Of course, they've scored runs too, and leading the charge there is Odubel Herrera. His first couple years in the big leagues he was like the Eddie Rosario of the national league: oozing with potential, but strikeout-prone and too much of a swinger for his own good. In 2017, he swung at a whopping 40 percent of pitches that were outside of the strike zone. This year he's slashed that to 33. The patience has paid off. So far through Saturday, he's on pace for career highs in batting average (..305), on base percentage (.368), slugging percentage (.462) and OPS+ (127).
     The rest of the Phillies lineup is composed of players who would have been scoffed at in the pre-Moneyball era, but are valued assets now. Aside from Herrera, no one is hitting over .300, but half of the order has an on-base percentage above .340, with no one embodying that type of particular player more than Carlos Santana. The free agent signing from Cleveland has only hit .221 in his first year with the Phillies, but has been above-average in terms of OBP with a mark of .341. He fits right into the philosophy that Gabe Kapler's been teaching.
     It will be tough for the Phillies to make the playoffs this year, sharing a division with both the Nationals and the upstart Braves, but they've already exceeded expectations from both the beginning of the year and the first week of the season. And as more young players like J.P. Crawford and Mickey Moniak develop, things will only get better from here.

The Case For.. A Timberwolves Upset

     Let's get this first part out of the way before we start: I'm not particularly concerned with this upcoming Timberwolves-Rockets playoff series. I get that the Rockets are coming off of their best season since the Hakeem Olajuwon days and have a historically great offense. I know the Wolves are huge underdogs and an eight has only beaten a one three times since the turn of the century. I don't care about that. I used to go to Wolves games when the Target Center was so quiet you could hear the shoes squeaking off the floor and Dante Cunningham was in the starting lineup. Just to be playing in a best-of-seven is plenty for me. With that said, the Timberwolves do seem to be getting overlooked just a tad by the national media going into the series.
     Every April, the basketball writers at ESPN make their picks for each round of the playoffs. Of the 22 writers who made selections, all 22 had the Rockets winning. One had them winning in seven games. The other 21 had them in four or five. Again, I get that the Timberwolves have an uphill battle, but that seems extreme.
     For starters, the Wolves aren't a typical eight seed. When Jimmy Butler went down with a meniscus injury on February 23, they were 36-26 and one game behind the Spurs for third place in the conference. The Rockets would be favored against any other team in the West, but it's hard to picture them being considered a slam-dunk like they are now if this was a typical one-three matchup that would happen in the second round and would have been plausible if Minnesota had the roster they're using now for the entire season.
     Another thing to keep in mind: James Harden has never exactly been known as a killer in the playoffs. For his career, he averages three fewer points, one fewer assist and shoots at a roughly four percent clip worse in the playoffs than he does in the regular season. This doesn't mean that trend will automatically continue into this year, but it is something to watch for.
     The biggest key for the Wolves is Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins has taken a lot of heat this year for various reasons. He takes possessions off on defense, he plays too passively, he settles for jump shots. All that's true. But if the Andrew Wiggins that played against Denver in the regular season finale shows up to this series it will be competition. Offensively that night, Wiggins was patient but not passive on offense, shooting 5-for-9 and scoring 18 points. More importantly, his defense showed why he was considered a lockdown defender coming out of Kansas in 2014. He embraced his role on the team and did enough to contribute to the season-saving victory.
     Keeping the Rockets pick-and-roll game in check will be essential if the Wolves want any shot at keeping the series competitive. With Butler most likely guarding Harden Wiggins will need to provide some help defense to contain it.
     If I had wanted to keep this column shorter I could have only mentioned one reason the Wolves will be competitive and it would have been two words long: Jimmy Butler. Butler is capable of getting hot at any point and swinging a game by himself. We saw it in December against the Nuggets when he went for 39 including 12 in overtime. As good as the Rockets are they aren't a great defensive team. If Harden folds under the pressure of being the one seed, Wiggins plays well like he has at points this year and Butler goes off, there's no reason this series can't at least be interesting. Let's get this started.

MLB Preview 2018! NL Edition

East

Washington Nationals

It took awhile, but Stephen Strasberg is finally here. He posted a 2.52 ERA last year and looked just solid in his first start this year, giving up one earned run over six and a third innings. He's also not the best pitcher in Washington. That would be reigning Cy Young winner Max Scherzer. On the offensive side, Adam Eaton's back, just in case Bryce Harper and company needed any more help.

New York Mets

I'm not quite as high on the Mets as some are. Noah Syndergaard and Yoenis Cespedes are both reliable mainstays, but I'm not sold on the rest of the roster. Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey need to prove that they can stay healthy. Their lineup is also surprisingly thin beyond Cespedes. Amed Rosario is intriguing, but if you're betting on prospects to bring you to the playoffs it's a losing battle.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves could surprise some people, especially after Ronald Acuna comes up. Dansby Swanson is only 24 years old and it's way too early to count him out. Meanwhile, Freddie Freeman has quietly emerged as one of the best first basemen in baseball. Since 2013 he's averaged 24 homers a year with a .299 batting average. With those three leading the way, if they can get a little help from the pitching staff they could be interesting.

Philadelphia Phillies

This is one of the advantages of writing these a week into the season. I made the predictions a before the season started, but I wouldn't have even mentioned Gabe Kapler. Now he's all I can talk about. Managers like him never succeed. Managers who try so hard to be innovative. It's the managers like Joe Torre or Joe Maddon who do well. They're not trying to hard, what they do is slightly more by-the-book and even natural. But for now I'll enjoy the Kapler experience for a few months. I'm sure the ever-logical Philadelphia fans will understand.

Miami Marlins

Please don't make me write about the Marlins.
Central

Chicago Cubs

It's weird to say this about a team that was considered up-and-coming just two years ago, but we pretty much know what the Cubs are at this point. They'll score a bunch of runs with a lineup led by Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, field well and the pitching is just a little shakier. That's the big question with Chicago: how long will the pitching hold up? Lester's 34 and not the pitcher he used be. They signed Yu Darvish, but he's 31. If there's a key player here it's Kyle Hendricks. He had a 3.03 ERA last season and will need to emerge as a number one if the Cubs are going to sustain this.

St. Louis Cardinals*

The Cards had a solid offseason, smartly pillaging the Marlins' sinking ship and coming out with Marcell Ozuna. That's a really good outfield they have along with Tommy Pham and Dexter Fowler. Now, if Carlos Martinez can emerge as a number one they could be looking very, very dangerous.

Milwaukee Brewers

For me, the Brewers are like the Mariners of the NL. Both teams are haven't made the playoffs in at least a few years, look like they potentially have the pieces, but I just can't quite justify picking them. Lorenzo Cain was a cagey signing, and so was trading for Christian Yelich, but Milwaukee's biggest issue last year was pitching and they didn't really address it. No one in their rotation had an ERA under 4.50 in 2017 and I just don't think they'll be able to keep up.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates are the early stages of rebuilding. McCutchen and Cole were the first to go, but soon enough Josh Harrison will be gone, quite possibly followed by Starling Marte, leaving the Bucs with the core of Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon and Gregory Polanco. You could build around worse players, but that's a group that isn't making the playoffs until 2020 at the earliest.

Cincinnati Reds

We're about three years past knowing the Reds need more than Joey Votto to compete, and now in the third year of the Reds' front office apparently not getting that memo. Billy Hamilton is always fun to watch and Adam Duvall has some power, but ultimately Cincinnati doesn't have... enough.

West

Los Angeles Dodgers

There isn't a lot to say about the Dodgers because they're bringing back the same team they brought out last year. Hopefully for them, Kershaw will stay healthy and Puig will have his head on straight. Other than that, this is the biggest slam-dunk in the league. 

Colorado Rockies*

This is a critical year for the Rockies. All the pieces are in place, everyone has another year of maturity. They need to take a step forward. Obviously Blackmon, Arenado and LeMahieu perform, but Trevor Story and the pitching staff are crucial. 

Arizona Diamondbacks

This is a very good team who wouldn't surprise me if they made a run. I think A.J. Pollock will take another step forward after his 2016 leg injury and the pitching staff is the same as it was last year. Their biggest issue is the bullpen and that's always easy to find solutions to at the trade deadline.

San Francisco Giants

I'm just not sold with the Giants. For the record, I made these predictions before Madison Bumgarner got injured because even with him there they don't have the pitching and Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria aren't going to change that. Even worse than their pitching last season was their fielding; according to Fangraphs their gloves cost the team 44 runs last year. McCutchen and Longoria won't help enough with that either.

San Diego Padres

They signed Eric Hosmer. Great. They still have a ton of problems and, as much as I like Hosmer, he's not Mike Trout and he and Wil Meyers can't do it by themselves. The roster as a whole just isn't very good. On the other hand, this paragraph is about three times longer than the one I wrote last year so... progress?

Awards

MVP: Nolan Arenado

He's the Manny Machado of the NL, the best fielding third baseman in the league by far and has developed into an excellent hitter. The only thing that can cost him is the annual Coors Field penalty, but I think he his all-around game will be enough to overcome it this year.

Cy Young: Noah Syndergaard

Why not? 2017 was just a speed bump in Thor's career path. He has everything you look for in a pitcher: size, an upper-90s fastball, wipeout slider and terrific hair. He's the full package.

Rookie of the Year: Ronald Acuna

This might be the easiest call in the entire column. Acuna raked in Spring Training and is only in Triple-A now because of service time nonsense. 

Playoffs

Wildcard: Rockies over Cardinals

NLDS: Nationals over Rockies, Dodgers over Cubs

NLCS: Nationals over Dodgers

World Series: Indians over Nationals

MLB Preview 2018! AL Edition

I'm a little late. Don't worry, I was late last year and the predictions sure as hell weren't any better than usual. Asterisk denotes wildcard.
East
New York Yankees
This is the worst. A season after I thought my Yankees hate had peaked they go out and get the best slugger in the game. I could see Stanton and Judge combining for 115 homers this year. Another prediction: Greg Bird has a breakout season. The starting rotation will be good enough. They can give up four runs in six innings before handing it off to Kahnle, Betances, Chapman and Robertson. Not that it will matter because the lineup will have already scored eight runs. This is going to suck.
Boston Red Sox*
J.D. Martinez was my favorite signing of the offseason. This was a quietly really good lineup all year and now they're getting better. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts both had mildly disappointing seasons last year, but they're both young and have shown the ability to play better than that, so I think they'll bounce back. The biggest question mark is pitching. Chris Sale will be great as usual, and Drew Pomeranz was a nice surprise, but David Price and Rick Porcello need to return to form for the Bosox to hang with the Yankees.
Toronto Blue Jays
The back end of the East is surprisingly weak this year. The Blue Jays have just run out of gas. Encarnacion and Bautista are gone, Donaldson and Tulowitzki aren't who they used to be. They had their shot in the 2015 ALCS and it's over now. If I'm Ross Atkins I'm getting rid of Donaldson, Russell Martin and Kendrys Morales, hanging on to Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar and Marcus Stroman and trying to go big in next year's free agent class.
Baltimore Orioles
Things the Orioles need to happen to surprise this year: Manny Machado has a career year (conceivable), Tim Beckham shows why he was a number one pick (also conceivable given his reworked swing. He's trying to follow J.D. Martinez and Josh Donaldson as guys who put the ball in the air more), Chance Sisco has a great rookie year (possible) and they get a little help from their starting pitching (not as likely).
Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Archer will be better than he was last year. I don't think he's ever returning to his 2015 form, but he'll be solid. But the most important part of the Rays is the outfield. The reunion we've been waiting for.. Denard Span and Carlos Gomez together again at last. Kevin Pillar between them, this could be a great- oh, never mind.
Central
Cleveland Indians
I don't know what happened against the Yankees in the ALDS. It might have been that this is a young team and the pressure and expectations got to them. I don't know if they just had the bad luck of their pitching failing them at the wrong time. I do know one thing: the Indians in the regular season were really good. Over the offseason they lost Jay Bruce but added Yonder Alonso. We'll see if Francisco Lindor can combine the power he showed last year with the average he had the previous two years. They're going to roll through the next six months.
Minnesota Twins*
Losing Jorge Polanco for the first 80 games is going to hurt. Polanco was great as the three hitter in August and September. Beyond that, I think this will be better than last season. It would be hard for the pitching to be worse, but if Odorizzi figures it out and the Gibson that showed up after the All-Star break isn't an illusion this could be a lot of fun.
Chicago White Sox
I kind of like this lineup. Avisail Garcia broke out last year and Yoan Moncada will be fun. I'm also a much bigger Nicky Delmonico fan than most. On the pitching side, Lucas Giolito is finally healthy. This isn't their year, but the White Sox could be fun down the road.
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City had a pretty strange 2017. They looked like the Bad News Bears in April, going 7-16 before turning it around and even making a brief push for a wildcard. But without Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez (for at least a month or two) they don't have much of a shot this season. They're bringing back enough guys from that mediocre team that they can be less than mediocre in a weak division.
Detroit Tigers
As ugly as this roster is, Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera are still on it, and even at a combined 157 years old they still scare the living daylights out of me in any big situation. Nick Castellanos has quietly become a solid third baseman, but there just isn't much on this team.
West
Houston Astros
Houston continues to do everything right. After writing the book of how to build a winner from the ground up last year they added a chapter titled "Don't be Complacent After Winning the World Series". Gerrit Cole is a bounce-back candidate. I think he'll benefit from a change of scenery. Everyone's returning from the lineup. The Astros will playing deep into October.
Los Angeles Angels
I was a big believer in Shohei Ohtani this winter. After seeing him in Spring Training, I am somewhat less of a believer. I don't have a ton to analyze other than to say he just hasn't looked that good. This will be an interesting subplot throughout the season. Most of my other Angels thoughts are here.
Seattle Mariners
I really want to pick the Mariners to make the playoffs. I love Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano and Dee Gordon. But ultimately, I don't trust James Paxton and the rest of the pitching staff to do enough to keep the Mariners competitive.
Texas Rangers
I'd be a lot more excited about the Rangers if it was five years ago. To make a run Elvis Andrus, Cole Hamels, Shin-Soo Choo and Doug Fister will all have to discover a time machine buried in an oil field or something. Willie Calhoun and Nomar Mazara could be fun, but that's about it.
Oakland Athletics
The A's have a few guys with some Todd Frazier potential. That's about it. This is the closest thing the AL has to the Marlins.
Awards
MVP: Mike Trout
This is something like the fifth year in a row I've chosen Trout. And you know what? I'm not stopping picking him. He's the best player in baseball and no one else is particularly close. He would have won last year if he hadn't gotten injured. There's no reason the expect anything else in 2018.
Cy Young: Chris Sale
The fact that he seems to fall off at the end of every year is a bit concerning, but I think this is finally the year he wins it.
Rookie of the Year: Shohei Ohtani
After Spring Training I'm not feeling great about this pick. But I figure he'll at least be good at one thing and that will be enough for him to win it.
Playoffs
Wildcard Game: Twins over Red Sox
ALDS: Astros over Twins, Indians over Yankees
ALCS: Indians over Astros

In Defense of Eric Hosmer

Wrote this for The Sports Post. You can read it HERE.

The Odorizzi Trade

     The Twins lost out on Yu Darvish. And that's fine. I would have loved sign him as much as anyone but not for 126 million and definitely not for six years. Now that Darvish is off the board, the Twins are turning their focus to others like Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, and, more recently, Jake Odorizzi, who they acquired Saturday for minor league shortstop Jermaine Palacios.
     A little background on Odorizzi: He's 27 years old and is under team control after the 2019 season. His best year came in 2015 when he posted a 3.35 ERA. His subsequent years haven't been as good, although they have been consistent. He pitched 187 innings in 2016 before injuries limited him to 143 innings last year. His ERA in both years was between 3.60 and 4.15. His ERA+ was 108 and 100 respectively. He was about as average as a pitcher can be.
     An average pitcher is something the Twins could badly use. Only three members of the rotation topped 100 innings in 2017. One of those three (Kyle Gibson) had an ERA north of 5.00. Things got so bad that they had to sign Bartolo Colon in July. Adam Wilk, Nik Turley, Dietrich Enns and Nick Tepesch all started games. At minimum Odorizzi can be a stabilizing force who keeps things from going too far south between Santana and Berrios' starts.
     One concerning thing with Odorizzi is that his numbers have gotten worse each year since his breakout. There isn't anything that jumps off the page, but his ERA, FIP, and walk rate have all steadily increased since 2015. His FIP has also been consistently higher than his ERA, indicating that's he's been luckier than average, but that might not be a huge issue in Minnesota. The Twins collectively saved 20 runs defensively last year and the Rosario-Buxton-Kepler outfield trio especially helps out fly ball pitchers like Odorizzi (48% fly ball rate last year).
     His biggest issue last year was the long ball. His homer rate spiked to 15.5 from 12 in 2016, even as he gave up fewer hits per nine innings than he had his entire career. Again, the move to Minnesota could help that. Just in the last few years the Twins have seen improvements from pitchers who were plagued by homers in the past. Phil Hughes halved his rate when he arrived in 2014, and Ervin Santana's rate has remained consistent with the rest of his career despite arriving at Target Field at the beginning of the homerun boom in 2015.
     The bottom line: Trading for Odorizzi is a low-risk move that could potentially pay off in a big way. The Twins are looking to take another step, and they can't do that without just some stability throughout the roster. Odorizzi isn't a flashy name, but he can provide that.

The Angel Question

     On September 29, the Los Angeles Angels played the Seattle Mariners. Mike Trout had an excellent game, going 2-for-3 with a walk and two homers in an 6-5 Angel Victory. The only problem was that the game meant nothing. The White Sox had eliminated the Angels the night before on a walk-off shot from Nicky Delmonico. Days like that were nothing new for Los Angeles who, since Trout became a star in 2011, have appeared in the postseason once, in 2014 when they were swept in the ALDS by the Royals.
     Those years have been frustrating to watch, not even as an Angels fan but just as baseball fan, seeing a front office bungle their opportunities with a generational talent. The stretch began before Trout was a part of the plans in the offseason of 2011, when they signed Albert Pujols to a 10-year, 240 million dollar deal. This was a fine move at the time; Pujols was the undisputed best player in baseball and even if it was too many years, that's the kind of thing you need to do for the best. In 2012, behind Trout and a still very good Pujols, they went 89-and-73 but missed the playoffs, finishing behind the A's and Rangers in a tough AL West.
     That offseason they signed what they thought would be the missing piece: star outfielder Josh Hamilton. The front office hoped Hamilton would help compensate for a shaky pitching staff that had benefitted from trading for the now-Dodger by this point Zack Greinke at the previous deadline. He did not. Hamilton dropped off in every statistical category from the previous year, while the staff posted a collective 4.24 ERA and gave up the third most homers in baseball.
     It was at this point the even bigger problems began manifesting. Los Angeles had lost their first round draft picks as compensation when they signed Pujols and Hamilton. They also traded three of their top prospects to Milwaukee for Greinke earlier that year. In short, their farm system was bare. At ESPN, Keith Law placed their system dead last in his annual rankings. Yes, I did just cite Keith Law in a column. This is weird. Let's move on.
     The Halos finally broke through in 2014 thanks to some (finally) decent pitching. However, that core didn't even last through the season. Garrett Richards had emerged as a legitimate ace, going 13-and-4 with a 2.61 ERA until ending his season with an ugly knee injury in August. Elsewhere on the staff, Hector Santiago had a solid season, but his underlying numbers showed a somewhat lucky pitcher with a FIP almost half a run higher than his ERA. The team ended up stumbling down the stretch, going 5-9 to end the regular season and getting swept by the Orioles in the ALDS.
     They missed the playoffs 2015, due in large part to the pitching regressing.
     The Angels finally started showing signs of life last year. Andrelton Simmons came around to provide enough pop at shortstop to be a formidable hitter as well as the best fielder in the league. Trout had his characteristically great season, even though he missed a month with an injury. General Manager Billy Eppler followed that up with a masterful offseason, re-signing trade deadline aquisition Justin Upton, trading for Ian Kinsler, signing Zack Cozart and, of course, signing Shohei Ohtani. The way Upton finished 2017 combined with Cozart and Ohtani's power can create a devastating middle of the order combination along with Trout. The only question mark here is- stop me if you've heard this one before- the pitching.
     Notice I didn't say it was bad. I said it was a question mark. Ohtani is suppose to be a stud (I'm a believer) but foreign prospects are always risky. Parker Bridwell had a solid 2017, posting a 3.65 ERA, but there's little to suggest he'll keep that going; He had a low strikeout and groundball rate coupled with a high fly ball rate tends to cause trouble. Richards hasn't ever completely recovered from that knee injury. He's hoping this will finally be the year he puts it behind him. Matt Shoemaker is another guy who's dealt with some injuries and hasn't shown his full potential. The Angles will put up plenty of runs and are certainly intriguing, but if the pitching doesn't come around, it will be just like every other year.

Same Movie, Different Ending

     I could see the montage that would play the next time the Vikings were in the playoffs. They'd be in a wildcard round game against the Rams or somebody when Fox would show all the heartbreaks the team endured over the course of some-twenty years. We'd see Gary Anderson's kick sail wide left, Favre force a ball over the middle and get intercepted by Tracey Porter, Blair Walsh miss a comically short field goal and then something from this game. I didn't know what it would be, maybe the blocked punt, maybe the coming field goal. All I knew for sure as the Drew Brees pass settled into Willy Snead's hands to convert a backbreaking fourth-and-ten with 37 seconds left was that there would be something.
     Twelve game seconds later Wil Lutz kicked what looked like a game-winning field goal and the game was over. When they started the drive off with a terrible false start penalty on over half the offensive line I didn't even care. The game was over. I had seen too many Vikings playoff heartbreaks to imagine the Vikings pulling this off. Then Keenum hit Diggs for 19, bringing the ball to the 39. The next two plays saw the line not holding up, and we were still at the 39 with ten seconds left. I was thinking there was a maybe five percent shot at a throw to the sidelines to get out of bounds, setting up an agonizing Kai Forbath field goal attempt. My point is, the possibility of a touchdown never crossed my mind.
     Keenum took the snap, dropped back and seemed the ball seemed to float toward the bottom right part of the TV screen. As Diggs came down with the ball, my friend Andy yelled, "get out of bounds!" I was thinking the same thing. Again, it was the only possibility in my mind. But then he didn't get out of bounds. He started running. And no one else was on the screen. It was at this point I began having an out-of-body experience. I wasn't watching Diggs sprint down the sidelines. I was watching myself watch Diggs. I think I may have been standing up and jumping, but I'm not sure. I didn't regain consciousness until Diggs was triumphantly throwing his helmet off to the side.
     The four friends I was with and I spent a few minutes celebrating like someone had just hit a walk-off homer. We hugged, jumped up and down, someone got tackled into the couch. Eventually things calmed down and we just ended up sitting on that couch, happily stunned. Every few seconds someone would say something like, "I can't believe that happened" or just let out a laugh.
     As a Vikings fan, even as I was reflecting six hours later, I just couldn't believe how it all worked out. Keenum put the throw exactly where he needed. Diggs made the catch, didn't get hit or step out of bounds. There were no dumb penalties on the play. For once we weren't team walking off in shocked disappointment. For once, we came out on top in a weird, back and forth playoff game. For once, the Vikings had shocked the world.

Twins Offseason Update

The offseason is in full swing, and the Twins are looking unusually aggressive. Here's a look at some moves they've made, and a few others they might.
Signing Michael Pineda
Sure, why not? Pineda is probably out all next year after having Tommy John surgery in July, but he was a solid starter when healthy, and he's a pretty low-risk high-reward guy for 2019. He had a 4.39 ERA last year in 96 innings while pitching in the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium. He gives up a relatively high percentage of fly balls (30.6% last year) so he's much suited to both Target Field and the Twins outfielders rather than Yankee Stadium.
Signing Fernando Rodney
The Twins bullpen was so shaky last year that I would have been happy with anyone joining, whether it was Brandon Kintzler again, Steve Cishek or this 40-year-old with a 4.23 ERA last season. That figure isn't as bad as it seems when you look at his breakdown by months from last year. In April he pitched 10 innings and allowed 14 earned runs. After that he settled down for the remainder of the year, posting a 2.42 ERA. Still, I'm not that comfortable relying on a someone who will turn 41 in March to be a consistent closer all year. But if he works out he's another cheap depth reliever any team can use. Again, we have a low-risk high-reward guy. That's becoming a staple of the Falvey-Levine administration. Last year they picked up Castro and Giminez, who were both respectable in their positions and based on what was expected of them last season. We're getting two more of them this year. All this is allowing them to bide time until they make a big move like...
Sign Yu Darvish?
It's easy to get really excited about this, but allow me to be the naysayer for a few minutes: Darvish has a history of injuries, having missed the entire 2015 season and part of 2016 after having Tommy John surgery. While signing pitchers to long-term deals there's always a huge risk even when they don't have a history (see: Johan Santana, C.C. Sabathia). Even more importantly than that, Darvish isn't in that top tier of pitchers and Cy Young contenders anymore. He had a respectable but not spectacular 3.86 ERA in 2017. Now, that still would have been the second best mark among Twins starters, and even more valuable in the second half when Ervin wasn't as dominant. I'll make this ultimatum as my hypothetical rule as Twins GM: If Darvish is willing to sign for under four years, I'd go for it. If not I'd let him go elsewhere and go after Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn.
One Suggestion for Mr. Falvey
Chris Giminez was a fine stopgap as a backup catcher, but Mitch Garver proved he's ready to have a full time big league roster spot down the stretch last year. It's time to let Giminez go and had the backup keys to Garver, who was more reliable both offensively and defensively last September. It's a small move, but one that could pay off over the course of a season. How many days until pitchers and catchers?

Who Will Land Ohtani?

     After spending way too much time discussing whether the Nippon Baseball League will allow him to leave, how the posting rules should work, and who can offer the most money, we've finally gotten through the red tape and Japanese jack of all trades Shohei Ohtani is officially eligible to sign with a team.
     The Rangers and Yankees can offer the most, although not by much because of the complex international signing rules. All of his offers will be under about 3.5 million dollars. I'm not sure how important any of that is anyway because if getting a ton of money was that important to Otani he would have waited another few years until he was 25 so he could get above the rookie pool.
     With the amount of money being more or less a nonfactor, this race is as wide open for an international free agent has ever been. If I had to guess, I'd say teams in the AL have a better shot at signing him because they could use him as a DH to rest his arm between starts. Other than that, it's up in the air. Ohtani's made it clear he wants to be a two-way player, so how teams respond to the written proposal Ohtani's agent is making them write could very well likely be the most important thing.
      Another reason being in a big market won't be important in this race: The Sixty Minutes story on Ohtani. If there's one thing I learned about him there it's that the dude cares about almost nothing but baseball. Look at these excerpts.
"No. I mean he doesn’t really do anything. He just, mellow kid, just goes back to the dorms."
 "Ohtani confirmed to us that he seldom leaves the facility. Not that it keeps fans from waiting for him outside."
     Does that sound like a guy who wants to go to New York? Shohei Ohtani wants to pitch, and he wants to hit. He's going to choose a team who will allow him to do both. That's the biggest difference between him and Hunter Greene and Brendan McKay. The Reds and Rays can decide what Greene and McKay will do. Ohtani can dictate his own terms.
     With this in mind, there is only one completely logical place for Otani to land, and that's in Minnesota. I may sound like a huge homer, but hear me out. In the aforementioned written pitch, Falvey and Levine could say something like this: We're a young, contending team that could be in the playoffs for the next several seasons to come. Come to Minnesota and you can DH on the days you don't pitch. If that satisfies his requirements I think that at least gets the Twins into consideration.
     From a logistical standpoint, throwing Ohtani into the mix doesn't complicate Molitor's job too much. I'm thinking Ohtani slides into the rotation and pitches every five days, plays DH three days and gets the day off the game before he pitches. The two days he's not in the lineup, Sano will DH and Escobar will play third.
     The Twins luck in the Asian market hasn't been good. Tsuyoshi Nishioka was a complete disaster. Byung-ho Park is still technically ongoing and has been somewhat less of a disaster. But that run has to end eventually, and the possibility of a Santana-Berrios-Otani rotation is too good to not make an attempt at. Coming off of the first playoff appearance since 2010 and having a young core, this is the perfect time to take a big swing. Let's make this happen Falvine.

Wildcard Preview

It's the game we've been waiting for, and of course it's against the Yankees. Of course the Twins and Yankees got good again at the same time. Of course the Twins have to play the team that's knocked them out of three of their last four postseasons. "There is no better way to exorcise demons than by going through them", is something I'm sure someone once said. So let's do this thing.
In this corner
Are the New York Yankees, universally hated, owned by the Steinbrenner family, led by their 6'7" behemoth of an outfielder with a roster filled out by egomaniacs who want Mickey Mantle's number, domestic abusers, and guys who punch people while they're on the ground in fights. They're fun for the whole family.
And in this corner
Are the scrappy Minnesota Twins! A year after losing 103 games, nobody gave them any chance. Even after a decent start, the front office gave up on them, selling at the trade deadline. Down the stretch, likeable young players like Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and Eduardo Escobar, as well as the continued presence of veteran leaders Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier.
Alright, now that the propaganda is done, let's break this down.
Starting Pitching matchup
Ervin Santana vs. Luis Severino
I actually like this matchup for the Twins. Severino's been really good, even dominant at times this year, but he's still only 23-years-old and has no big game experience. Meanwhile Santana's been the Twins' rock all season, posting a 3.36 ERA and generally just being a steady force every five days. I can say this much: with Santana on the mound I'm confident the Twins won't get blown out, at least until the bullpen comes in. My biggest concern here is Severino's repertoire. He throws a fastball that hovers around 97 miles per hour and a slider in the high 80s. The Twins have struggled against flamethrowers like that all season.
     If he doesn't do well, Joe Girardi will no doubt have a very shot leash with him. Even if he's on his game he'll be hard-pressed to go six with Girardi eager to use the bullpen. The Twins can't afford to do that with Santana. He might have to grit out some innings tomorrow because there will be four trustworthy relievers in that pen at the most.
     Berrios out of the bullpen will be interesting to see. I'm definitely in favor of it. I'd rather see Berrios in any tight spot than anyone in the bullpen. Berrios averages about 94 MPH on his fastball while starting, it'll be faster out of the pen when he doesn't have to conserve as much. With that in mind, I think ideally the plan is this: Santana for six innings, followed by either Hildenberger or Berrios in the seventh depending on where they are in the Yankees' order. Berrios will get the middle if it's there. Whoever doesn't get the seventh pitches the eighth with Belisle closing it out. As a side note, we're less than 24 hours away from the Twins playing a playoff game with Belisle as their closer and Jorge Polanco as their three hitter. I don't think anything represents the weirdness of this season better than that.
Key Player
Miguel Sano
Earlier, I was holding out hope that Sano could start. It's looking like that's not going to happen. I'm not sure what to think after this last weekend because while he looked pretty bad in a few at bats, Looking bad is nothing new to Sano, and I don't know whether this was because of his shin or if they were just regular awful-looking two-strike Sano swings. With that said, if he can't start I see him pinch-hitting for Kepler against Chapman, in a power-on-power at bat that just might end in an explosion.
Key Factor
Keep Gardner and Ellsbury off the bases
It was a little concerning how easily those two ran off of Santana and Castro the last time the Twins were in the Bronx, they were on a combined six times and stole two bags apiece. Keeping them off the basepaths will be crucial with Sanchez and Judge batting behind them. Last time Ervin pitched the Twins were fortunate, neither of them had hits with runners in scoring position. They can't count on that happening again.
Final Thoughts
I want the Twins to win this game if for nothing else but so that I don't have to read one more article about how much the Yankees own the Twins in the playoffs. That's all irrelevant now. Mauer was the only Twin on the team last time this happened in 2010. Nobody from either team was there in 2004. If there was a Twins team in the last ten years to beat the Yankees when all numbers say they shouldn't, this is it. It's one game. Anything can happen. I'll take the Twins 3, Yankees 2.

Some Notes Going into Game Two in New York

We're heading into the home stretch of the season, things are getting stressful, and the Twins are a game into maybe the most important series in the last five years. Here are some notes and observations before tonight's Berrios-Sabathia duel.

• Three separate Jaime Garcia moments made me want to put my fist through a wall last night: The first being when I realized the Twins lineup is so inconsistent they're somehow making him look like Corey Kluber. The second was when I realized the Twins wouldn't have had to face him if they had held on to him. I then remembered he's been terrible in New York which briefly gave me some solace before I realized that means it makes even less sense that he would be pitching so well tonight, ultimately leading to moment number three.
• In all seriousness, the biggest reason for Garcia's success last night was getting strike one. Of the 20 batters he faced last night, he got a first pitch strike twelve times. It's really difficult to consistently hit from behind, and that's what the Twins were doing. Getting ahead allowed Garcia to then expand the strike zone with two strikes, something he used to exploit the youth and lack of experience of Rosario and Buxton multiple times last night. In the second inning, Polanco jumped on a first pitch fastball and ripped it to right for a double. The Twins need to do more of that tonight if Sabathia comes out as aggressive as Garcia.
• Long standing belief I've had: Under no circumstances should Joe Mauer strike out looking. If Mauer doesn't swing at a pitch with two strikes, it probably wasn't a strike. Umpires should call games with this in mind.
• One thing I wasn't expecting to happen was the Yankees to run like crazy. I know Santana is notorious for having a slow delivery but Gardner and Ellsbury even stole off of Duffy and Hildenberger. More on this in a second.
• Gardner and Ellsbury were on a combined six times last night. Of course they're the two guys who can do the biggest damage on the basepaths for the Yankees. It's especially frustrating considering the Twins' staff did a pretty good job with the scariest part of the lineup. Judge had the homer in the first inning but he went hitless for the rest of the game. Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius both went 0-for-4.
• The best part about this week's slate of games is that the Angels are playing the Indians. It's plausible that the Twins could lose two of three without messing up their playoff chances too badly.
• These Twins are so weird and unpredictable I wouldn't be surprised if they put up 20 runs tonight. I also wouldn't be surprised if they got no-hit.
• Prediction: I think the good Berrios shows up tonight and the bats rebound at least a little bit. Dozier picks up his 31st homer in a 5-1 victory.

The Buxton Resurgence

    When Byron Buxton made his Major League debut in 2015 I was maybe more nervous than I've ever been before a meaningless June game in all of my fandom. In a way, it was more fun with Buxton as a mythical figure in the minor leagues. Before he played a game for the Twins, he had no faults, he was the perfect ballplayer. Now that he was on the big league club, stats would be counted and we would see if he was really worth the hype. Things hit a snag at the beginning when he struck out in his first at-bat. They continued to snag when he hit .209 his rookie year. And then .225 in 2016. Or when he started his junior campaign by going 4-for-49. Gradually, things turned around. The turning around became less gradual in July and August. Here's a look at why.
     Early in the season, Buxton's name was synonymous with strikeouts. In April he struck out in over a third of his at-bats, at a 37% clip. Compare that to now, he struck out 22.9% of the time in July and is on a similar pace this month at 23.3%. A lot of this credit goes to hitting coach James Rowson. Rowson's helped Buxton simplify his approach at the plate and he looks much more comfortable as a result. Check out his swing in his first career AB in 2015 and compare it to how it looked in June of 2016 and his RBI single yesterday. His swing's gotten shorter and quicker in the last two seasons. The changes have paid off. Buxton's barreling up the ball with much more regularity, increasing his line drive percentage from 16 in April to almost 30 this month. 
     No matter how much his hitting improves, Buxton's biggest asset always has and always will be his speed, which is why it was frustrating to see him wasting much of it in 2015 and 2016. In those two years. He hit fly balls roughly 43 percent of the time. On top of that, he struck out at a rate between 30 and 35 percent. So that's over 70 percent of the time he wasn't able to utilize the most dangerous aspect of his game. There's quite a difference this season. He's fly balls 35 percent of the time total, and in August that number's dropped to 30.
     By putting the ball on the ground more often, Buxton's helping the team in ways he doesn't get credit with in the box score. With Buxton running, any bobble on a grounder means he gets on base. Sometimes a fielder will try to move too quickly and make an error just because of Buxton's speed.
     It's been tough to watch Buxton play the last two years, but it looks like he's finally putting it all together. He might not be Mike Trout, he's not winning any MVPs at age 23, but he's getting there. At the very least, he's Jason Heyward, a great fielder who can't quite hit well enough. But if these last two months are any indication, he's turned a corner and the sky's the limit.

Breaking Down the Trade Deadline

The trade deadline wasn't quite as hectic as it's been in previous years, but that's no reason not to take a look at the deals. We'll begin with the two Twins trades.
Twins-Yankees
Twins get: Dietrich Enns, Zack Littell
Yankees get: Jaime Garcia
Garcia's illustrious Twins career came to a close Sunday with this move to the east coast. It's a solid trade for the Yankees; Garcia's by no means a star or even the pitcher he used to be, but he's a reliable back of the rotation starter for the stretch run. On the Twins' end this is looking pretty good. Enns in a long shot, 26 years old and has yet to make it to the majors. Littell on the other hand, is an interesting situation. In 115 innings between Single and Double-A, the 21-year-old has a 1.87 ERA. While his fastball only tops out in the low 90s, his command and curveball project him to be at least a big league reliever. How he progresses from there depends on the development of his changeup.
Twins-Nationals
Twins get: Tyler Watson
Nationals get: Brandon Kintzler
I like this deal for the Twins. If you're out of the race it's always a good idea to flip your relievers for anything you can get. There's always a market there; contenders are always looking to boost their bullpens for the stretch run, especially since the 2015 Royals showed how valuable an impenetrable, deep bullpen can be. The other reason is that any reliever having a good year can be a closer. Exhibit A? Brandon Kintzler himself. Anyway, the Nats were in desperate need to relief to compete with the Astros and Dodgers for best teams in baseball and Kintzler can provide some of that, even though he doesn't strike guys out like a typical reliever.  For the Twins, Watson is an intriguing young lefty. He only turned 20 last May and has a ton of upside at 6' 5". Like Littell, he throws in the low 90s with an above-average curve.
Rangers-Dodgers
Rangers get: Willie Calhoun, A.J. Alexy, Brendon Davis
Dodgers get: Yu Darvish
This is a tough one to analyze. Darvish is in the midst of his worst career, sporting a 4.01 ERA this season, and an abominable 7.20 in the month of July. Things will only get tougher for him moving into Dodger Stadium, a hitters' park. Until he actually suits up for LA, it's impossible to know whether he just went through a rough month or if this is who he is now. No matter what the answer is to that, he's definitely no longer an ace, but the Dodgers don't need that, they just need a solid back end starter. Yeah, they made the Rangers a deal like he's still an ace, but if they win the World Series, a scenario that's looking more likely every day, it won't matter. Coming to Texas are a pair of high-upside infielders in Calhoun and Davis. Alexy is a young starting pitcher who's been solid in low-A ball this season, but he's a ways away from the majors.
A's-Yankees
A's get: James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, Dustin Fowler
Yankees get: Sonny Gray
The Yankees ended up with the most coveted arm available at the deadline because of course they did. Gray's 27, has a 3.34 ERA, and won't be a free agent until 2020 at the earliest. The Yankees even managed to do it without giving up any of their top prospects. It's hard to believe this is the best deal the A's could get for Gray. Kaprielian had to have Tommy John surgery in the spring, so he's done for this season and possibly more. Meanwhile Fowler brings solid defense in the outfield and speed to the table but isn't expected to be a star by any means. Mateo is the most interesting of this trio. He's a notoriously streaky hitter but has shown some power this year, and his athleticism gives him the opportunity to be the rare shortstop who makes a difference with his glove and hits homers.
Before we go, let's do a quick run-through of some earlier deals.
Jose Quintana to the Cubs
I though this deal was overrated when it first happened. Quintana hadn't been particularly effective this year, sporting a 4.49 ERA on the south side of Chicago. The White Sox atrocious fielding had something to do with that, but he still had a FIP above 4. Naturally he's only given up five runs in 19 innings with the Cubs, who are back in first place.
Eduardo Nunez to the Red Sox
Nunez has gotten off to a hot start in Boston, hitting two homers in his debut and going 8-for-17 out of the gate. At the very least he's an improvement over the Sox third basemen this year, Pablo Sandoval and Devin Marrero both hitting .212 during their time at the hot corner. Even if he wasn't, it's always fun to have Eduardo Nunez around anyway,

Midseason Awards

AL
MVP: Aaron Judge
After Trout got injured this became Judge's award to lose. Beyond single-handedly making the Yankees about 70% less hateable he's having one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time. Don't believe me? In 2012 Trout hit .326/.399/.564 with 30 homers. Judge is hitting .329/.448/.691 with 30 homers through 84 games. Obviously he won't sustain his .426 batting average on balls in play but there probably won't be a big of a drop off as one might expect because he's third in baseball in hard hit percentage,* barreling up almost half of the balls he hits. At any rate, Judge is the easy choice in a surprisingly sparse AL field.
*Behind Miguel Cabrera and Nick Castellanos for some reason
Runner-up: Carlos Correa
I have Correa here, but the amazing part about the Astros' season is that you could make the argument that he's only been the third most valuable player behind Jose Altuve and George Springer. They have their own cases but let's take a look at Correa right now. He's hitting .325 with a .420 on base along with 20 homers. Outside of the batters' box he's been an above average fielding shortstop. Also, he's 22 years old. I don't think his solid all-around game is enough to compete with the offensive Monstar season of Judge, but it's been an excellent breakout after his relatively disappointing sophomore campaign.
Cy Young: Chris Sale
It's about damn time. Sale's been one of if not the best pitcher in the AL for the last six years and has no hardware to show for it. In that time he's posted an ERA of 3.01, and ERA+ of 136 and averaged 218 strikeouts a year. This season he's leading the AL in strikeouts, FIP, WHIP, innings pitched and has allowed the fewest number of hits per nine innings. I don't know what more he can do to win this year.
Runner-up: Corey Kluber
So far, Kluber's having his best season since his Cy Young winning 2014. His 2.80 ERA is the lowest it's been since then, and his WHIP is the lowest it's been in his entire career; for the first time he's allowing less than one baserunner per inning.
Rookie of the Year: Judge
Obviously.
Runner-up: Andrew Benintendi
Coming in with massive expectations, Benintendi's been steady in the Bosox lineup. So far he's hit .279/.357/.446 with 12 homers. That's nothing to sneeze at, especially for someone who just turned 22 last week.
LVP: Manny Machado
I really hate to have Machado because he's so much fun to watch but he's been a disaster this year. His OBP (.296) is barely higher than his 2016 batting average (.294). Meanwhile the Orioles have struggled, sitting in fourth place in the East. Going into this year without an ace or even a particularly good rotation, Baltimore needed a high-powered offense to keep pace in a tough division, with the 24-year-old Machado being the linchpin. As it's worked out, Machado's struggled and so has the team, sporting a sub-.500 record at the break.
Player to watch in the second half: Eric Hosmer
Hosmer was the third overall pick in 2008 draft and has had massive expectations following him since then. Even after the Royals' World Series victory in 2015 and his All-Star appearance the next season he hasn't quite lived up to what was expected of him. Now, in his contract season, he's putting together his best year as a pro so far, posting a line of .318/.374/.492 while continuing to be one of the top defensive first basemen in baseball. He and Salvador Perez have been driving this Royals resurgence, who are 44-43 after starting out 7-16. With the trade deadline less than three weeks away, the Royals will have to decide whether to buy or sell.
NL
MVP: Bryce Harper
Runner-up: Paul Goldschmidt
Choosing between Harper and Goldschmidt made me think way too hard about who I should award a theoretical midseason MVP trophy to. Harper has slight advantages in batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage, but Goldschmidt is a better fielder. Ultimately I gave it to Harper because of the "Valuable" part of Most Valuable Player. Harper's Nationals are sitting on top of the East at 52-36. While Arizona's been a lot better than expected this season, they're still nowhere near Washington and when the race is this close you need to go by degrees.
Cy Young: Max Scherzer
It's funny that in this season defined by historic home run numbers and offensive production we have two of the best pitchers of the decade having personal best seasons with Sale and Scherzer. Even better, neither of them are in the AL Central while having said seasons. Just like Sale, this was a pretty easy call because Scherzer is leading the NL in just about every meaningful pitching stat: ERA, WHIP, FIP, and strikeouts.
Runner-up: Clayton Kershaw
On the other coast, we have the best pitcher of the decade, who just quietly continues to dominate without much fanfare in LA of all places. This year serves as a pretty good microcosm for his career. Dominance despite being overshadowed by things much more interesting to a national crowd. This year it's Cody Bellinger, previously it's been Yasiel Puig, the Adrian Gonzalez/Carl Crawford/Nick Punto trade from Boston and the McCourt fiasco. That's all fine. It doesn't matter that, unlike Scherzer and Sale this isn't his best year. A 2.18 ERA is providing plenty, especially on this juggernaut of a Dodgers team.
Rookie of the Year: Cody Bellinger
Speaking of juggernautesque Dodgers, how about Cody Bellinger? The Judge comparison is easy to make, but not quite accurate. Judge is in the midst of a historic rookie season. Bellinger is fun, but just doesn't quite stack up. Regardless, this is another really easy choice. Bellinger is hitting .261 with 25 homers in a difficult park for hitters while contributing to the best team in the NL. He's also the youngest player to get an at bat this year. Don't worry if he's not Judge.
Runner-up: Ian Happ
The one bright spot to the Cubs season is Happ, the versatile slugger who's hit 13 homers in 51 games. Whatever. I doubt there are any Cubs fans taking solace in that. I don't feel bad for them. They got their World Series. See you in 108 years. Before that, meet me in the next section to make even more fun of the Cubs.
LVP: Kyle Schwarber
Obviously it had to be a Cub. I considered going with Arrieta and Lester and Co-LVPs, but no one represents the disappointment of the Cubs than Schwarber: He happened to come alive at the perfect time for Chicago last season, the future was bright with him, and he hasn't produced this season. Actually, "hasn't produced" is a nice way of putting it. To say it a little more bluntly: He was terrible. In addition to being the ugliest player in the league (but he's had that title since 2015) he hit .178/.300/.394 in 277 plate appearances before being sent to Triple-A. Also like the Cubs, he's incredibly young and talented and it's absolutely a possibility to see him turning it around and having a productive second half.
Player to watch in the second half: Kyle Freeland
The Colorado righty has gone 9-and-7 with a 3.77 ERA, which is especially good when you consider he's playing half of this games in Coors Field. With Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon doing plenty for an excellent offensive team, Freeland and the rest of the pitching staff will be especially crucial in the stretch run while fighting for a wild card spot.

The Astros Return to the Top of the West

     It's been a weird few years for the Houston Astros. Between 2011 and 2013 they had one of the worst three year stretches in baseball history, going 162-324, winning fewer than 60 games each year. 2014 was better; they went 70-92 and fired manager Bo Porter in September because apparently they were expecting to be better or something. With these miserable seasons they had accumulated quite a farm system, even though of their number one picks, Brady Aiken didn't sign and Mark Appel was a disappointment before being traded to the Phillies in a deal for Ken Giles. Still, Carlos Correa was clearly the real deal and Lance McCullers was on his way up. In 2015 they made the playoffs for the first time since 2005 behind strong seasons from Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa among others and a Cy Young season from Dallas Keuchel. However, after a blazing 18-7 start, they cooled off for the rest of the season, going 68-71 through September. 2016 they went 84-78, missing the playoffs, with Keuchel having a massively underwhelming season, seeing his ERA balloon to 4.55. Finally, that brings us to this year. The 'Stros have the best record in baseball, at 52-26. Here's a look at what they did to jump another level.
Improving their weaknesses
This may sound a little dumb and obvious, but Houston's front office was exceptional at improving the areas where they struggled last year. Their 2016 catcher was Jason Castro. Castro's biggest strength is his defense, but it's still difficult to contend with a catcher who hits .210/.307/.377. This offseason they traded a pair of minor leaguers for Brian McCann who (along with being the protector of all things sacred and holy about baseball) is hitting .261/.343/.463. In left and center field, they replaced Colby Rasmus and Carlos Gomez, who last year hit .206 and .210 for the Astros respectively with Nori Aoki who despite his shortcomings in power and drawing walks is certainly an upgrade and Josh Reddick, who is enjoying the best season of his career, hitting .297 with an OPS+ of 132. Like I said, improving the weaknesses of a team seems obvious, it's what a front office is there for, but look at how many teams haven't done it. At the end of 2016, the Mets were in a similar situation, having had an excellent 2015 and a not quite as good 2016 with a tough division rival they needed to keep up with. Like the Astros, they had a weakness at catcher, with Travis d'Arnaud hitting a paltry.247/.307/.323 and providing defense behind the plate that's mediocre at best. Flash forward a year and d'Arnaud is hitting .226 in the seven car collision that is the Mets season. To be clear: Not improving at catcher definitely isn't why the Mets are bad this year, but it shows that front offices aren't always as proactive in improving as the Astros' was this offseason.
The Keuchel Resurgence
The Astros rotation has been led by the one-two punch of Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers, who have combined to go 16-1 with ERAs of 1.67 and 2.53. Let's take a look at Keuchel because McCullers' success isn't too surprising given that he's 23 and has stuff so nasty it was only a matter of time until he figured it out. Keuchel's different. After his Cy Young season he took a step back in 2016 partially because of his drop in velocity. His fastball, cutter, and slider all saw drops of around a mile per hour. In 2016 he also used his fastball and changeup less often (59% of the time) and relied on his breaking stuff more, as if to compensate for his drop in velocity, but this year before going on the DL, he's back up to the ratio he used to success in 2015, throwing his fastball and changeup 67% of the time, closer to the 69% mark in 2015.
     This is the best Astros team since 2005. All the prospects are here. The bullpen's been solid, and if they can pick up another arm at the deadline to go with Keuchel and McCullers they'll be built for the playoffs. That would fit in with what they've been doing recently; just continuing to improve.

Thoughts from the First Month or Two of the Season

The Yankees are really good
And they're likeable to boot! I'm having so much trouble trying to decide how I feel about the Yankees. On one hand, they're the Yankees; they've knocked the Twins out of the playoffs three times this century. They're famous for buying championships. On the other hand, it's fun watching Aaron Judge hit homers, I'm excited about Gary Sanchez, not as a Twins fan or Yankee hater, but just as a baseball fan. Luckily, that won't be a problem when they sign Harper and Machado and forget about the youth in a few years. As for right now, they've been doing all of this with a relatively shaky starting rotation. Assuming they're still good in July, they're going to deal for pitching and be a very dangerous team.
The Cubs are... not really good
They're just not getting the production they got last year. In retrospect, other than Schwarber's injury, nothing major went wrong for the Cubs in 2016, and it would have been unrealistic to expect that again this year. Despite their youthful lineup, the age in their pitching staff is beginning to show a bit. Jon Lester is 33, Jake Arrieta is 31 and neither are performing as well as their expectations, particularly Arrieta, whose velocity has dropped on every pitch this season and has seen in ERA swell as a result. Kyle Schwarber and Anthony Rizzo are too talented to keep hitting .222 and .184 respectively, but the pitching could be a serious problem moving forward.
The Royals are just terrible
I chose the Royals to finish second in the Central at the beginning of the year, and it took me approximately 24 hours to regret that decision. I was impressed that they managed to get Jorge Soler for Wade Davis and never really considered that they really needed Davis. Their bullpen has the sixth worst ERA in baseball at 4.95. Of their eight active relievers, six have ERAs above 4.50, five have ERAs above 6.00. The hitting isn't much better. Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar, and Alex Gordon all have sub-.300 on base percentages. Things could be worse though: Eric Hosmer has gotten his numbers up to respectability with a solid May following a miserable April. With Hosmer, Moustakas, Jason Vargas (one of the few bright spots this year) and Lorenzo Cain set to be free agents this winter, blowing it up seems like the obvious option. With that said, they have just enough  talent that if they wanted to try to add some pieces for a 2018 run, they have could potentially do it if they get some bullpen help this offseason and add a middle infielder or two.
Can we shut up about how terrible baseball is?
In the past year, fans have been told by the national media that baseball is too slow and that extra innings are going extinct. Pompous assholes like Keith Law are publishing books referring to what's "ruining the game" and the "right way to think about baseball", and that's just in the title. So here's my own idea of how to fix baseball: Chill. Baseball is a great game, why do we spend so much time looking at its faults? As for pace of play, why should us true fans suffer with stupid rule changes that bastardize the game to appeal to a generation that doesn't have the attention span to appreciate it the way it is? (Yes, I know the answer is always "money", just stick with me here.) Why do we like this game in the first place? Why can't we just enjoy baseball for what it is?

How Sano Turned the Corner

     This season has been better than the average year for the Twins. It hasn't been amazing, they probably won't go to the playoffs, but it's been better. Ervin Santana is pitching like he's trying to become the best Johan Santana in Twins history, Max Kepler is barreling up balls left and right, Jorge Polanco has been steady, and since this is an optimistic column let's just not bring up Byron Buxton. But perhaps the most encouraging sign this season has been the clear improvement of Miguel Sano. In addition to rocking some tremendous new braids, the young corner infielder has come out of the gate hot, hitting .297/.435/.649 with six homers. After an excellent rookie season, Sano took a minor step back in 2016 with his batting average dropping 33 points. Let's take a look at what he's doing differently this year.
     The most obvious difference is that Sano's drawing more walks this year. Last season, in 495 plate appearances, he got 54 free passes. This year, he already has 18 in just 92 plate appearances. To put that into percentages, he's nearly doubling his walk rate, jumping from 10.9 percent to 19.6 percent.  Despite those walks, he's being more aggressive within the strike zone. When he's gotten a pitch in the strike zone, he's swung at it 71.3 percent of the time. These better decisions have lead to him barreling up more balls than any other time in his career. According to Fangraphs, he's hit the ball hard 52 percent of the time, compared to his 40 percent mark from last year. Similarly, his percentage of balls that are softly hit have dropped, from 10 to four percent. His strikeout rate is still too high, at 32 percent, but that's still a slight decline from the last two years.
     Now that we're done with the boring analytical stuff, let's discuss the important part: watching him. He hasn't been chasing after the low breaking balls that tend to plague young hitters (see: Oswaldo Arcia). He also appears to be more comfortable taking the ball the other way, putting pitches on the outside corner into the right field gap, one of which went for a triple earlier this year.
     As far as defense goes, it will never be Sano's strength. But he's made some clear improvements. After settling back into third base after the ill-fated right field experiment, he hasn't been terrible. So far he's made several great bare-handed plays like this. Statistically, his fielding percentage is up to .958 from .896 from last year, even if the range isn't quite there. Just getting up to adequate in the field would be a big bonus.
     Being a Twins fan takes an incredible amount of patience. Since 2010 we've had to do a lot of waiting. For Buxton, for Sano, for Berrios, for a more modern front office. And while we're still waiting for a lot, Sano becoming a star might be one thing we can stop waiting for.

MLB Preview 2017! NL Edition

My NL preview is a litttle late. Sue me. Here are the predictions.
East
1. Washington Nationals
I broke down the Nationals last week. You can see most of my thoughts on them here.
2. New York Mets
This is a solid overall team, with a potentially elite rotation if everyone stays healthy. That said, I'm just not sure they have enough to take down the Nationals. They'll need a MVP-caliber season from Cespedes, some production from Curtis Granderson and Jose Reyes in addition to everyone staying healthy.
3. Atlanta Braves
If I had to choose a team to surprise people, I'd go with the Braves. Dansby Swanson has the potential to be right up there with Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor for top young shortstops in baseball. From there, Freddie Freeman quietly had a monster season last year, hitting .304/.400/.569 with 34 homers and Ender Inciarte is one of the most underrated players in the league, hitting .281 last year and saving 15 runs with his glove. The biggest question is pitching. Beyond Julio Teheran, they're going to need R.A. Dickey to turn back the clock and Bartolo Colon to be consistent at age 43.
4. Miami Marlins
This isn't a bad lineup, especially with the 3-4-5 combination of Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna. That said, the staff was already thin before the death of Jose Fernandez, and when Edinson Volquez and Wei-Yin Chen are your top starters you're going to have problems.
5. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are like the Twins of the NL: They have a few exciting players that'll be fun to watch this year, that said, very few of them are pitchers and contention is out of the question until they shore up the rotation. Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco will be enjoyable, but if they're not up feel free to change the channel.
Central
1. Chicago Cubs
I don't even have anything to say about the Cubs. They're bringing back everyone from last years team except Dexter Fowler, who they're replacing with a full year of Kyle Schwarber. If everyone stays healthy I don't see any scenario where they don't make the World Series again.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
The Redbirds savvily added Dexter Fowler, both bringing in the leadoff hitter they need while also taking away a key contributor from their biggest rival. Overall, this roster isn't quite as strong as some recent Cardinal teams, particularly beyond Carlos Martinez in the rotation but this is the St. Louis Cardinals were talking about. They find a way to win infuriatingly often and with unknown players.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
If I trusted Josh Bell a tiny bit more I would have taken the Pirates over the Cardinals. First base is a gaping hole in Pittsburgh and I'm just not sure he'll be able to put together an entire productive season at the plate. Andrew McCutchen wasn't quite as bad as it seemed last season, but I think he is better this year regardless; he had a career low BABIP last season.
4. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds ahve the potential to be good in a year or two. Joey Votto continues to be one of the best hitters in the league, and Devin Mesoraco is a solid backstop. Billy Hamilton made strides last year, to the point that he's no longer a complete liability with the bat. As with many teams, the problem is in pitching. Robert Stephenson and Brandon Finnegan both have the potential to be good, but to expect that this year is too much, especially in this division.
5. Milwaukee Brewers
This most important of the Brewers' season will be what that they can get for Ryan Braun at the trade deadline. Needless to say, that isn't a good thing. Other important parts of the Brewers season, in descending order: Orlando Arcia's development, Jonathan Villar continuing to hit, Bernie Brewer's mustache, and their fans not breaking too many things before the Packer season starts.
West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
I currently have an irrational hatred for the Dodgers for refusing to budge and give up any more than Jose De Leon in a potential Dozier trade this offseason. Dozier would have joined a potent lineup with Justin Turner and Corey Seager. Instead, Los Angeles cashed that De Leon trade chip in on Logan Forsythe, who isn't as good as Dozier but hit .268 with a .333 on base percentage and adequate defense in Tampa Bay.
2. San Francisco Giants
Their even year magic ended last season, but this is still a pretty good team. They added Mark Melancon to remedy their biggest problem: blowing leads. There's no reason to think he's meltdown on opening day is an indicator for the rest of the season. Beyond him. this is a pretty steady and balanced roster that should contend for a playoff spot.
3. Colorado Rockies
The lineup is good. Obviously. This is Denver. D.J. LeMahieu is one of the most underrated second basemen in the league, hitting .348 last year and posting a miniscule 12.4% strikeout rate, very valuable given today's strikeout crazy time. The biggest question mark is the pitching. Both Tyler Anderson and Jon Gray posted better fielding-independent numbers than their ERAs would suggest but the key here will be rookies Jeff Hoffman and Kyle Freeland. Hoffman, the centerpiece of the Troy Tulowitzki trade, is starting the year in the minors but figures to be up eventually. Freeland is a former first rounder who was solid in the minors. If they play to their potential Colorado could be dangerous.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
I actually kind of like this roster. Paul Goldschmidt keeps quietly putting up huge numbers and being one of the best overall players in the league. Speaking of underrated, A.J. Pollock's back after being injured for most of last season. Still, Zack Greinke doesn't seem to be coming back anytime soon, and beyond Goldschmidt and Pollock, the lineup is pretty thin.
5. San Diego Padres
The Friars have a starting lineup that will be good in 2019 and a pitching rotation that would have been good in 2013. They also have someone named Kevin Quackenbush. So that's fun.
Awards
MVP: Starling Marte
I'm going with a bit of a surprise for MVP, but Marte has been one of the best outfielders in baseball for the last few years. Last season he hit .311/.362/.456, stole 47 bases and was arguably the best defensive outfielder in the NL. I predict he takes another step forward in 2017, bringing a little more power like he did in 2015 when he hit 19 homers and takes home the award in a pretty wide open NL field.
Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
I'm taking Kershaw for the same reason I chose Mike Trout to win MVP in the AL: He is so indisputably better than everyone else I'm taking him every year until someone proves to be better than him.
Rookie of the Year: Dansby Swanson
I was really surprised when I saw Swanson didn't lose his eligibility last year. As one of the few rookies with an impressive big league resume already, he's the obvious choice.
Playoffs
Wild card game: Giants over Cardinals
NLDS: Cubs over Cardinals, Dodgers over Nationals
NLCS: Cubs over Dodgers
World Series: Indians over Cubs