What's the biggest storyline?
Kentucky's quest for a perfect season. The most surprising part of this is the fact that people don't seem to be making a big deal out of this. Sure, they played a relatively easy schedule, (four other SEC teams made it, Arkansas is the only other one above a nine seed) but there's a reason no teams have gone undefeated since 1976. You have to be ready to play every game, if you're flat once it's over. I was the number one Wichita State defender last year, and regardless of what happens in the tournament, Kentucky's a great team. That said, I'm rooting for the Wildcats to lose. I don't want Coach Cal's strategy to work, it's much more fun to watch and root for someone like Wisconsin. Everyone there's staying all four years and with that comes a bond with the players and students. In Wisconsin, the players go to the same classes, go to the same parties, maybe even live in the same dorms. They're one of them. In Kentucky there's a joylessness about the whole process. For most of the players, they're just there until they can go to the NBA, after the tournament they'll probably stop going to classes and if they don't win it all they'll just be forgotten by all the spoiled fans, who will patiently wait until the next crop of McDonald's All Americans come in. Sounds like a blast.
What's a possible upset?
Kansas has a history of gagging in March. Wichita State has a history of knocking big names out. You know what to do. Beyond history, I'm not sold of this Kansas team. They can get too passive at times, Ellis's knee concerns me, and there's no telling what will happen with Cliff Alexander. Teams like that don't tend to last long in the tournament.
Who's a sleeper Final Four team?
I'm going to say Utah for two reasons. On Thursday they survived a Stephen F Austin team showing a lot of upset potential with their best player, Delon Wright going 2-7 from the field. Wright's too good to play like that the entire tournament and Jacob Poetel played very well, posting an 18-9 with five blocks. Another reason is their region. Iowa State's out, I don't completely trust Gonzaga and Duke is one of the most overrated teams in the country, completely undeserving of a number one seed. They lost to Notre Dame not once but twice during the regular season. There's also a serious depth issue with Duke. They only have eight players. What happens if Okafor gets into foul trouble? Marshall Plumlee is the only other center on the team. There's just too much that can go wrong.
Who can take down Kentucky?
Plenty of teams can, but there are two that have a much better chance than anyone else: Virginia and Arizona. We'll start with Arizona. The Wildcats are the only team in the country who can match up with Kentucky. Stanley Johnson matches up well with either of the Harrison twin, and Rondae Hollis Jefferson can slow down Karl-Anthony Towns. T.J. McConnell is one of the better point guards in the country, if everything goes right, they can pull it out.
Arizona has the personnel to beat Kentucky, but Virginia has the system. You beat Kentucky by slowing it down and grinding it out, which is exactly how you beat Kentucky. With all the attention Kentucky's gotten, Virginia might have the best D in the country. It's a defensive struggle, the Hoo's pack line defense limits Kentucky's fast break opportunities before Justin Anderson makes some big shots and ends the Wildcats' quest at perfection. That's not inconceivable, right? Please?
Kirby Puckett
Saturday, March 21, 2015
Saturday, March 7, 2015
Twins Preview
Was Torii Hunter a good signing?
I'm going to say yes. Obviously he has his flaws, (fielding, getting on base) but the biggest complaint I've heard about him is that he'll take up space and keep younger players from getting opportunities. My response to that: Who cares? We had a freaking shortstop in center field last year. The only big outfield prospect who will need a lot of time this year is Aaron Hicks, and he'll get that chance. Meanwhile, Hunter is already injecting life into what had become a disconcertingly dull clubhouse in the last few years through his constant chatter and leadership.
What about Evrin Santana?
This one I'm not so sure about. The Twins just gave four years to a guy who had a 3.95 ERA last year in the National league. To be fair, his FIP was much smaller at 3.39, but I'm still not a huge fan of this.
Who's the fifth starter?
Our options are May, Meyer and Pelfrey. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being Pelfrey just because Ryan seems to have a man crush on him. Remember, he gave him a two year extension after 2013 when he had gone 5-13 with a 5.19 ERA. He might give him one of those captains C's Jason Varitek wore. I wouldn't rule anything out at this point.
It should be May though. He's already 25 and this is probably either his last or second to last chance. He needs the experience.
What's up with those new jerseys?
Beats me. I thought the Twins' old duds were looking a little stale, but I'm going to miss the pinstripes for sure. I like them attempting to put gold into the color scheme, it adds some pop but it doesn't make sense unless they put it other places too. We'll see.
Will Aaron Hicks put it together this season?
I won't say he puts it together, but I can see him definitely taking a major step forward. I've written this before, but Hicks is a fantastic player everywhere in the hitting aspect. He's a good fielder, base runner and his best quality is his plate discipline, posting an above league average .341 on base percentage last year. He also swung at just 19% of pitches outside the strike zone, good for 12th lowest in the majors so he doesn't need to have an incredibly high batting average to be effective, like Brian Dozier. Most of his struggles have been against lefties, (.178/.300/.212 last year vs. .278/.410/.382 against righties) so I'd like to see him and Arcia (.198/.261/.313 vs. righties last year) platoon in right sometime in the future.
What prospects could we see this year?
We're definitely seeing the two big pitchers, Jose Berrios and Alex Meyer. Berrios got rocked in his brief time in AAA last year, but he has too good of stuff for that to continue, boasting a decent command and excellent curveball. Meyer is different, relying on a fastball that often reaches the upper 90s but still needs to work on his control. He also has spent time in AAA but played well, posting an ERA of 3.52. Then there's Sano. He was supposed to be up late last season before Tommy John surgery derailed his season. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes up in September this season, possibly earlier if he plays really well.
Can Nolasco be as bad as he was last year?
Unfortunately yes. As hard as it would be to recreate a 5.38 ERA and being such a petulant a-hole that all the fans hate you. In an earlier draft of this I had a long and complicated theory of why he didn't do well last year. But then I realized there was a bigger question: Are we sure Nolasco was ever even very good? After 2008 he had exactly one season with an ERA+ over 100. That was 2013 when it was 101. And even that season he had the advantage of spending part of it in the graveyard of a ballpark of Dodger Stadium. He's still under contract until 2018. I just threw up in my mouth a little.
How many games do the Twins win this year?
I'll say 80. The offense isn't a question. With Dozier, Mauer, Arcia and Plouffe they'll score more than enough runs. As I mentioned above, I'm not as high on Ervin Santana as some are, but he'll be better than he was last year, he'll adjust to not being the same physically as he was a few years ago, Hughes will be Hughes, even if he gets the fifth starter job out of spring training, Pelfrey will probably only have it for a month or less. Overall this adds up to a decent team, which considering the last few years is a huge step forward.
I'm going to say yes. Obviously he has his flaws, (fielding, getting on base) but the biggest complaint I've heard about him is that he'll take up space and keep younger players from getting opportunities. My response to that: Who cares? We had a freaking shortstop in center field last year. The only big outfield prospect who will need a lot of time this year is Aaron Hicks, and he'll get that chance. Meanwhile, Hunter is already injecting life into what had become a disconcertingly dull clubhouse in the last few years through his constant chatter and leadership.
What about Evrin Santana?
This one I'm not so sure about. The Twins just gave four years to a guy who had a 3.95 ERA last year in the National league. To be fair, his FIP was much smaller at 3.39, but I'm still not a huge fan of this.
Who's the fifth starter?
Our options are May, Meyer and Pelfrey. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being Pelfrey just because Ryan seems to have a man crush on him. Remember, he gave him a two year extension after 2013 when he had gone 5-13 with a 5.19 ERA. He might give him one of those captains C's Jason Varitek wore. I wouldn't rule anything out at this point.
It should be May though. He's already 25 and this is probably either his last or second to last chance. He needs the experience.
What's up with those new jerseys?
Beats me. I thought the Twins' old duds were looking a little stale, but I'm going to miss the pinstripes for sure. I like them attempting to put gold into the color scheme, it adds some pop but it doesn't make sense unless they put it other places too. We'll see.
Will Aaron Hicks put it together this season?
I won't say he puts it together, but I can see him definitely taking a major step forward. I've written this before, but Hicks is a fantastic player everywhere in the hitting aspect. He's a good fielder, base runner and his best quality is his plate discipline, posting an above league average .341 on base percentage last year. He also swung at just 19% of pitches outside the strike zone, good for 12th lowest in the majors so he doesn't need to have an incredibly high batting average to be effective, like Brian Dozier. Most of his struggles have been against lefties, (.178/.300/.212 last year vs. .278/.410/.382 against righties) so I'd like to see him and Arcia (.198/.261/.313 vs. righties last year) platoon in right sometime in the future.
What prospects could we see this year?
We're definitely seeing the two big pitchers, Jose Berrios and Alex Meyer. Berrios got rocked in his brief time in AAA last year, but he has too good of stuff for that to continue, boasting a decent command and excellent curveball. Meyer is different, relying on a fastball that often reaches the upper 90s but still needs to work on his control. He also has spent time in AAA but played well, posting an ERA of 3.52. Then there's Sano. He was supposed to be up late last season before Tommy John surgery derailed his season. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes up in September this season, possibly earlier if he plays really well.
Can Nolasco be as bad as he was last year?
Unfortunately yes. As hard as it would be to recreate a 5.38 ERA and being such a petulant a-hole that all the fans hate you. In an earlier draft of this I had a long and complicated theory of why he didn't do well last year. But then I realized there was a bigger question: Are we sure Nolasco was ever even very good? After 2008 he had exactly one season with an ERA+ over 100. That was 2013 when it was 101. And even that season he had the advantage of spending part of it in the graveyard of a ballpark of Dodger Stadium. He's still under contract until 2018. I just threw up in my mouth a little.
How many games do the Twins win this year?
I'll say 80. The offense isn't a question. With Dozier, Mauer, Arcia and Plouffe they'll score more than enough runs. As I mentioned above, I'm not as high on Ervin Santana as some are, but he'll be better than he was last year, he'll adjust to not being the same physically as he was a few years ago, Hughes will be Hughes, even if he gets the fifth starter job out of spring training, Pelfrey will probably only have it for a month or less. Overall this adds up to a decent team, which considering the last few years is a huge step forward.
Thursday, February 26, 2015
Going in Opposite Directions
The news that Kevin Garnett possibly coming here all came so suddenly I didn't even have time to react. The first reports surfaced on Thursday morning and by that afternoon it was a reality. By the way, before I go any further, I'd like to announce that this column is not going to have any "Torii Hunter and now Kevin Garnett, what is this 2002?" jokes in it. That's another thing that came suddenly.
Sure, Garnett will be a constant reminder that the Wolves took Thaddeus Young instead of the Heat first rounder in the Wiggins trade that could come back to haunt them, but what he gives them could be just as good.
Garnett will give the Timberwolves an edge nobody else can bring. As talented as this young core is, nobody on the Wolves has a nasty streak to them. KG can get that to rub off on them. Anthony Bennett's sleep walking his way through another game? KG will get his head on straight. DeMarcus Cousins is dirtily pushing around Gorgui, talking trash and just generally being a dick? KG's got Gorgui's back. The things that change cultures can only be learned if someone's leading by example, and that's what he'll bring.
On the other side there's Adrian Peterson and his people, who have been displaying an A-Rodian level of stupidity lately. Keep in mind, this is after Zimmer, Spielman, and various teammates have said they would love to have him back. That didn't keep Peterson from saying he's "uneasy" about returning and saying, "There were people (in the organization) that I trusted, who knew exactly what was said, who weren't heard from." That quote couldn't sum up this entire saga any better. Almost six months after the incident Peterson still doesn't seem to know what he did wrong. As ludicrous as the suspension was*, it was still because he beat his kid with a stick. He's not exactly a martyr.
*I never got to talk about the suspension when it happened but here are my thoughts now: The NFL panicked. They didn't know what to do, so they were hoping that either the Vikings would release him so they could forget about him like Ray Rice, or he wouldn't get his court stuff done until after the season so they wouldn't have to deal with it until later. But then when they reached the plea deal they had no idea what to do.
It only got worse when Peterson's agent, Ben Dogra, got into it verbally with the Vikings VP of Football Operations Mike Brzezinski at the Combine, saying that Peterson will never play for Minnesota again. Once again, it's best not to do things like that when you don't have moral high ground.
The way things are going, sports in Minnesota might be strikingly similar to 2002 by this summer: Torii Hunter and Kevin Garnett are the heroes, and nobody cares who Adrian Peterson is.
Sure, Garnett will be a constant reminder that the Wolves took Thaddeus Young instead of the Heat first rounder in the Wiggins trade that could come back to haunt them, but what he gives them could be just as good.
Garnett will give the Timberwolves an edge nobody else can bring. As talented as this young core is, nobody on the Wolves has a nasty streak to them. KG can get that to rub off on them. Anthony Bennett's sleep walking his way through another game? KG will get his head on straight. DeMarcus Cousins is dirtily pushing around Gorgui, talking trash and just generally being a dick? KG's got Gorgui's back. The things that change cultures can only be learned if someone's leading by example, and that's what he'll bring.
On the other side there's Adrian Peterson and his people, who have been displaying an A-Rodian level of stupidity lately. Keep in mind, this is after Zimmer, Spielman, and various teammates have said they would love to have him back. That didn't keep Peterson from saying he's "uneasy" about returning and saying, "There were people (in the organization) that I trusted, who knew exactly what was said, who weren't heard from." That quote couldn't sum up this entire saga any better. Almost six months after the incident Peterson still doesn't seem to know what he did wrong. As ludicrous as the suspension was*, it was still because he beat his kid with a stick. He's not exactly a martyr.
*I never got to talk about the suspension when it happened but here are my thoughts now: The NFL panicked. They didn't know what to do, so they were hoping that either the Vikings would release him so they could forget about him like Ray Rice, or he wouldn't get his court stuff done until after the season so they wouldn't have to deal with it until later. But then when they reached the plea deal they had no idea what to do.
It only got worse when Peterson's agent, Ben Dogra, got into it verbally with the Vikings VP of Football Operations Mike Brzezinski at the Combine, saying that Peterson will never play for Minnesota again. Once again, it's best not to do things like that when you don't have moral high ground.
The way things are going, sports in Minnesota might be strikingly similar to 2002 by this summer: Torii Hunter and Kevin Garnett are the heroes, and nobody cares who Adrian Peterson is.
Friday, February 13, 2015
Tigers Out of Time
The Detroit Tigers have had a pretty big World Series window in the last few years, but now, because of bad luck and decisions it might be closing quickly.
GM Dave Dombrowski's first mistake was during the 2013 offseason when he traded Doug Fister to Washington for utility player Steve Lombardozzi. Fister was and still is one of the most underrated pitchers in the league, posting a 3.67 ERA the year before. Most people's initial reaction to the deal was confusion. Why would he trade a solid, back end starter like Fister for an unproven infielder like Lombardozzi? The fact that they later swapped Lombardozzi for Alex Gonzalez (who played nine games before retiring) does nothing to make the situation clearer. To make a bad situation worse, Fister went on to have a terrific season for the Nationals, going 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA.
Dombrowski's second screw up was just a few months ago, dealing Rick Porcello to the Red Sox for Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes is a good player, but has been slightly overrated after his much hyped defection from Cuba. Last year in 51 games he hit .269/.296/.423 in a park practically built for right handed power hitters.
Compare that with Porcello. He was one of the most underrated pitchers in the league last year with an ERA of 3.43. Now, throw the fact that Justin Verlander is nowhere near in 2012 form and you have a thin starting rotation. Yes, I know he had surgery last winter and wasn't able to have the same offseason routine, but I also know that even before that in 2013 he wasn't the same, posting a respectable but nowhere near other worldly 3.46 ERA. There's also no denying his fastball doesn't have the same zip as it used to. According to Fangraphs, his fastball was almost 2.5 MPH slower last year than in was in 2012. Without Porcello, past David Price and Anibal Sanchez (if he's healthy) there are going to be some serious questions on the staff.
I can't believe I've gotten this far in a column criticizing the Tigers without bringing up the doomed from the start Victor Martinez four year 68 million dollar contract that hasn't even kicked in yet. Putting it that way's a little harsh, Martinez was excellent last year, turning back the clock with a .335/.409/.565 batting line and 32 homers while also helping form the most terrifying middle of the lineup in the league with Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez. But he had also made five trips to the DL in his career, including one to the sixty day just a few years before, not to mention the fact that he's 36 years old. If his body doesn't go soon, his skills will. Still, this one goes somewhere between a bad decision and bad luck because 1) this could be one of their last shots at a World Series because of their aging core, and 2) if they hadn't given him that kind of money and years, some other team would have.
Speaking of big contracts, Miguel Cabrera has a doozy as well. Unlike Martinez, this was a good investment at the start and probably will be for a few years. But then it keeps going.... and going.... and going, all the way until 2023. I don't think I need to explain what this means.
All this couldn't be happening at a worse time for Detroit. The central, what used to be the weakest division in the league is strengthening. Obviously there are the reigning American League champs Kansas City Royals, who even after losing James Shields will be dangerous. The Indians won 85 games last year and are returning pretty much the same team from last year. And now even the White Sox, who have been dormant since 2008 could be a contender, adding Jeff Samardzija and Melkey Cabrera. Add all that up and the Tigers could be watching the playoffs this year for the first time in four years.
GM Dave Dombrowski's first mistake was during the 2013 offseason when he traded Doug Fister to Washington for utility player Steve Lombardozzi. Fister was and still is one of the most underrated pitchers in the league, posting a 3.67 ERA the year before. Most people's initial reaction to the deal was confusion. Why would he trade a solid, back end starter like Fister for an unproven infielder like Lombardozzi? The fact that they later swapped Lombardozzi for Alex Gonzalez (who played nine games before retiring) does nothing to make the situation clearer. To make a bad situation worse, Fister went on to have a terrific season for the Nationals, going 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA.
Dombrowski's second screw up was just a few months ago, dealing Rick Porcello to the Red Sox for Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes is a good player, but has been slightly overrated after his much hyped defection from Cuba. Last year in 51 games he hit .269/.296/.423 in a park practically built for right handed power hitters.
Compare that with Porcello. He was one of the most underrated pitchers in the league last year with an ERA of 3.43. Now, throw the fact that Justin Verlander is nowhere near in 2012 form and you have a thin starting rotation. Yes, I know he had surgery last winter and wasn't able to have the same offseason routine, but I also know that even before that in 2013 he wasn't the same, posting a respectable but nowhere near other worldly 3.46 ERA. There's also no denying his fastball doesn't have the same zip as it used to. According to Fangraphs, his fastball was almost 2.5 MPH slower last year than in was in 2012. Without Porcello, past David Price and Anibal Sanchez (if he's healthy) there are going to be some serious questions on the staff.
I can't believe I've gotten this far in a column criticizing the Tigers without bringing up the doomed from the start Victor Martinez four year 68 million dollar contract that hasn't even kicked in yet. Putting it that way's a little harsh, Martinez was excellent last year, turning back the clock with a .335/.409/.565 batting line and 32 homers while also helping form the most terrifying middle of the lineup in the league with Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez. But he had also made five trips to the DL in his career, including one to the sixty day just a few years before, not to mention the fact that he's 36 years old. If his body doesn't go soon, his skills will. Still, this one goes somewhere between a bad decision and bad luck because 1) this could be one of their last shots at a World Series because of their aging core, and 2) if they hadn't given him that kind of money and years, some other team would have.
Speaking of big contracts, Miguel Cabrera has a doozy as well. Unlike Martinez, this was a good investment at the start and probably will be for a few years. But then it keeps going.... and going.... and going, all the way until 2023. I don't think I need to explain what this means.
All this couldn't be happening at a worse time for Detroit. The central, what used to be the weakest division in the league is strengthening. Obviously there are the reigning American League champs Kansas City Royals, who even after losing James Shields will be dangerous. The Indians won 85 games last year and are returning pretty much the same team from last year. And now even the White Sox, who have been dormant since 2008 could be a contender, adding Jeff Samardzija and Melkey Cabrera. Add all that up and the Tigers could be watching the playoffs this year for the first time in four years.
Thursday, January 29, 2015
Early Twins Lineup Projection
Before I start this column, I just want to talk about Scherzer inking a seven year, 210 million dollar deal with the Nationals. While it's generally regarded as an overpay whenever a pitcher gets that much money and especially that many years. As we've seen from guys like Johan Santana, their arms can go out at any time. But, as smart as it seems to decide not to them those kinds of deals, if you want to sign somebody as good as Scherzer you're going to have to do it because there will always be another team willing to do it. Mike Rizzo's basically saying, "We're willing to have a huge untradeable burden on our team for a few years if it'll help us win a World Series right now." Which is why I like the deal for Washington. They're absurdly deep on the mound, with Tanner Roark moving to the bullpen. Now on to the original column.
SS Danny Santana
I've been on the Santana bandwagon since day one and I'm not getting off anytime soon. While he'll almost certainly regress at least a little from last year with his unsustainable .405 BABIP, he's still an excellent fielder and base runner. On top of that, his batting average on balls in play has been around the .320 range his entire career throughout the minors, meaning he's been getting a little lucky, but not as lucky as someone who has a lower career average.
1B Joe Mauer
Much like how Santana will probably regress next year, I'm almost positive Mauer will do better assuming he stays healthy. My goofy theory for his first half struggles last year: He was under a lot of pressure to make the all star game. After the break, he seemed to loosen up and hit like the Mauer of old. I bet he hits around the .310/.400/415 range.
2B Brian Dozier
One of the most unorthodox players in the league, Dozier's a power hitting second baseman who makes up for his low batting average with a very high walk rate. I'm slightly concerned that only five of his 23 homers came after the all star break, but he kept his on base skills all the way through and is a terrific fielder.
RF Torii Hunter
He hit .298/.319/.446 last year in Detroit, but his contributions will be more off the field. I can't think of a better mentor for Aaron Hicks, and overall it'll just be fun to have him in a Twins uniform again.
I wrote that just after the he signed with the Twins and everything there's still true.
3B Trevor Plouffe
After a quietly putting together a solid season (.258 80 RBI 40 doubles 110 OPS+) the Twins will eventually have to decide what to do when Sano comes up. I asked Terry Ryan about this at Twinsfest and his response was pretty noncommittal, but he mentioned that if Plouffe continues to play well, they could try to fit both into the lineup. It's a pretty good idea in theory, but that's how we ended up with the Plouffe in right field debacle a few years ago. We'll see how it turns out.
C Kurt Suzuki
I'm fine with Suzuki, but I thought and still think the Twins should have traded him at the deadline last year. He posted a .310 batting average on balls in play, much higher than his career average on .274, and he tailed off in the second half, hitting just .253. He's a great defensive catcher, but he's probably already peaked. It would have been better for the Twins to at least get something for him.
DH Kennys Vargas
I'm a huge Vargas fan. Anytime you have a guy with as much raw power as him who can still slap it the other way, you've got a keeper. He chased a lot of pitches in the dirt last year, something common for young hitters he'll likely be able to improve.
SS Danny Santana
I've been on the Santana bandwagon since day one and I'm not getting off anytime soon. While he'll almost certainly regress at least a little from last year with his unsustainable .405 BABIP, he's still an excellent fielder and base runner. On top of that, his batting average on balls in play has been around the .320 range his entire career throughout the minors, meaning he's been getting a little lucky, but not as lucky as someone who has a lower career average.
1B Joe Mauer
Much like how Santana will probably regress next year, I'm almost positive Mauer will do better assuming he stays healthy. My goofy theory for his first half struggles last year: He was under a lot of pressure to make the all star game. After the break, he seemed to loosen up and hit like the Mauer of old. I bet he hits around the .310/.400/415 range.
2B Brian Dozier
One of the most unorthodox players in the league, Dozier's a power hitting second baseman who makes up for his low batting average with a very high walk rate. I'm slightly concerned that only five of his 23 homers came after the all star break, but he kept his on base skills all the way through and is a terrific fielder.
RF Torii Hunter
He hit .298/.319/.446 last year in Detroit, but his contributions will be more off the field. I can't think of a better mentor for Aaron Hicks, and overall it'll just be fun to have him in a Twins uniform again.
I wrote that just after the he signed with the Twins and everything there's still true.
3B Trevor Plouffe
After a quietly putting together a solid season (.258 80 RBI 40 doubles 110 OPS+) the Twins will eventually have to decide what to do when Sano comes up. I asked Terry Ryan about this at Twinsfest and his response was pretty noncommittal, but he mentioned that if Plouffe continues to play well, they could try to fit both into the lineup. It's a pretty good idea in theory, but that's how we ended up with the Plouffe in right field debacle a few years ago. We'll see how it turns out.
C Kurt Suzuki
I'm fine with Suzuki, but I thought and still think the Twins should have traded him at the deadline last year. He posted a .310 batting average on balls in play, much higher than his career average on .274, and he tailed off in the second half, hitting just .253. He's a great defensive catcher, but he's probably already peaked. It would have been better for the Twins to at least get something for him.
DH Kennys Vargas
I'm a huge Vargas fan. Anytime you have a guy with as much raw power as him who can still slap it the other way, you've got a keeper. He chased a lot of pitches in the dirt last year, something common for young hitters he'll likely be able to improve.
LF Oswaldo Arcia
Last year was one of the worst seasons of my fandom of the Twins. Not just because of the losses, but because of the lack of personality on the team. Arcia however, was one of the few fun people on the team with his mohawk and towering homers he would flip his bat after. However, his excitement didn't translate to production, as he hit just .231/.302/.452 and an unsightly .198/.261/.313 line against lefties. If there's any consolation, he hit a lot better in the second half than the first, with a .239/.290/.517 line along with 17 of his 20 homers.
CF Aaron Hicks
This is Hicks's make or break season. If he doesn't at least show some progress this year I don't think he ever will. I'm still hesitantly optimistic about him for the same reasons I am about Dozier. Namely, his batting eye (he posted a .341 OBP last year) and fielding. He struggled a lot against righties last season, (.178/.300/.212 compared to .279/.410/.382 against right handed pitchers) so I'd love to see him platoon with Arcia in right in a few years.
Last year was one of the worst seasons of my fandom of the Twins. Not just because of the losses, but because of the lack of personality on the team. Arcia however, was one of the few fun people on the team with his mohawk and towering homers he would flip his bat after. However, his excitement didn't translate to production, as he hit just .231/.302/.452 and an unsightly .198/.261/.313 line against lefties. If there's any consolation, he hit a lot better in the second half than the first, with a .239/.290/.517 line along with 17 of his 20 homers.
CF Aaron Hicks
This is Hicks's make or break season. If he doesn't at least show some progress this year I don't think he ever will. I'm still hesitantly optimistic about him for the same reasons I am about Dozier. Namely, his batting eye (he posted a .341 OBP last year) and fielding. He struggled a lot against righties last season, (.178/.300/.212 compared to .279/.410/.382 against right handed pitchers) so I'd love to see him platoon with Arcia in right in a few years.
Saturday, January 17, 2015
Trout on the Downswing?
There are lots of things we don't know about Mike Trout. But let's start with some things we do know. 1) He had quite possibly the best rookie season of all time in 2012, 2) he got even better his second year, becoming a more selective hitter and leading the league in walks 3) He had a massively underwhelming 2014, his batting average dropping 36 points, stealing half as many bases and his on base percentage falling 55 points, and 4) despite everything I mentioned in the last section he's still without a doubt the best player in the AL.
Think about that last point for a second. There's no one else in the league who could regress that much and still be that great. Of course, that also means people pay a lot less attention to it than they would anyone else. So should the Angels be concerned?
What I didn't mention in the first paragraph is that Trout's power numbers have increased, going from 27 to 36 homers and 97 to 111 RBI. Unfortunately, that's come at the expense of just about everything else. He made way less contact, his strikeouts spiking to a league leading 184 and his zone contact rate fell from .89% to .85%. In other words, he swung and missed at pitches in the strike zone four percent more often last year than 2013. While that may not seem like a lot, it comes out to about 124 pitches he wiffed on in 2014 he hit in 2013.
His concentration on power also has also affected what happens when he puts the ball in play. While going for more homers, 47.2% of balls he put in play were fly balls, up from 35.6% the year before. That caused his percentage of line drives to go down, dipping from 23 to 18.9%.
All of this is happening despite the fact that he saw more fastballs last year than in 2013. Last year, 62.4% of all the pitches he saw were fastballs, up from 60.5% in '13. I can't think of a single explanation for why this happened. It's possibly just a coincidence, but it doesn't matter whether it is or not, what matters is that he wasn't taking advantage of having more opportunities.
After looking at all this information, I'm sure Trout's skills aren't eroding. He's changed his mental approach. Which means he could change it at any time. So, to answer his question in the title, no, he's not getting worse. The best case scenario is a rich man's version of 2013. He's the five tool phenom he knew he could be. Anything's possible. The worst is pretty much last year. He decides he wants to be a power hitter and it comes at the expense of his hitting and base running. I hope he chooses the first route, but with Mike Trout, you can't go wrong either way.
Think about that last point for a second. There's no one else in the league who could regress that much and still be that great. Of course, that also means people pay a lot less attention to it than they would anyone else. So should the Angels be concerned?
What I didn't mention in the first paragraph is that Trout's power numbers have increased, going from 27 to 36 homers and 97 to 111 RBI. Unfortunately, that's come at the expense of just about everything else. He made way less contact, his strikeouts spiking to a league leading 184 and his zone contact rate fell from .89% to .85%. In other words, he swung and missed at pitches in the strike zone four percent more often last year than 2013. While that may not seem like a lot, it comes out to about 124 pitches he wiffed on in 2014 he hit in 2013.
His concentration on power also has also affected what happens when he puts the ball in play. While going for more homers, 47.2% of balls he put in play were fly balls, up from 35.6% the year before. That caused his percentage of line drives to go down, dipping from 23 to 18.9%.
All of this is happening despite the fact that he saw more fastballs last year than in 2013. Last year, 62.4% of all the pitches he saw were fastballs, up from 60.5% in '13. I can't think of a single explanation for why this happened. It's possibly just a coincidence, but it doesn't matter whether it is or not, what matters is that he wasn't taking advantage of having more opportunities.
After looking at all this information, I'm sure Trout's skills aren't eroding. He's changed his mental approach. Which means he could change it at any time. So, to answer his question in the title, no, he's not getting worse. The best case scenario is a rich man's version of 2013. He's the five tool phenom he knew he could be. Anything's possible. The worst is pretty much last year. He decides he wants to be a power hitter and it comes at the expense of his hitting and base running. I hope he chooses the first route, but with Mike Trout, you can't go wrong either way.
Sunday, January 11, 2015
Calm Down about the Hall of Fame and Other Things on my Mind
The Hall of Fame elections, the most enjoyable part of the most boring baseball month of the year have just come and gone. The least enjoyable part is what happens after: Approximately 5,000 articles about why someone voted for player A, didn't vote for player B, whether you should vote for guys who took PEDs or not, Keith Olbermann's annual "they should shut down the hall of fame because the guys I like aren't there" rant and Jayson Stark using not one but two articles to express his disgust of the ten player per ballot rule. Now here's my take: Calm down.
I love the Hall of Fame. I was lucky enough to go there when I was twelve, and it's by far the most important one between the four main sports, but with that said, it still doesn't really matter that much. Barry Bonds is the home run king and, the directions the game's headed, will still be it more quite some time whether we like it or not. Regardless of what happens, most people's perception of him won't change if he makes it in. It's all ceremonial. It's a great honor, but that's all. I believe that Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza and Jeff Bagwell should all be in there, but I'm not getting bent out of shape about it.
I know I defended him a few weeks ago, but what the hell is Billy Beane doing? I've liked most of his moves, especially the Norris trade, but I don't even know how to react to him trading for Ben Zobrist. Oakland's clearly building for the future, so why would they trade a top shortstop prospect and former first round pick like Daniel Robertson for him? He hit .310/.402/.471 last year with 15 homers. Zobrist is a good, versatile player, but it just doesn't add up. What's especially perplexing about it is that the A's traded another shortstop prospect, Addison Russell last summer in the trade for Jeff Samardzija, making Robertson even more valuable.
I love the Hall of Fame. I was lucky enough to go there when I was twelve, and it's by far the most important one between the four main sports, but with that said, it still doesn't really matter that much. Barry Bonds is the home run king and, the directions the game's headed, will still be it more quite some time whether we like it or not. Regardless of what happens, most people's perception of him won't change if he makes it in. It's all ceremonial. It's a great honor, but that's all. I believe that Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza and Jeff Bagwell should all be in there, but I'm not getting bent out of shape about it.
I know I defended him a few weeks ago, but what the hell is Billy Beane doing? I've liked most of his moves, especially the Norris trade, but I don't even know how to react to him trading for Ben Zobrist. Oakland's clearly building for the future, so why would they trade a top shortstop prospect and former first round pick like Daniel Robertson for him? He hit .310/.402/.471 last year with 15 homers. Zobrist is a good, versatile player, but it just doesn't add up. What's especially perplexing about it is that the A's traded another shortstop prospect, Addison Russell last summer in the trade for Jeff Samardzija, making Robertson even more valuable.
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