There are some certainties in the American league right now. One is that the Royals will win the Central. Another is that either the Blue Jays or Yankees will take the East with the other claiming the first wildcard. The second wildcard is where things get interesting. Five teams (Rangers, Twins, Angels, Orioles and Rays) are within three games of that spot*. Here's a look at them.
*At least at the time I started writing this. Since then the Orioles have gone into a massive slump and almost fallen out of contention
Texas Rangers
Why they'll make it
The Rangers deserve a break at some point. They lost the World Series two years in a row this decade, coming one strike away twice in 2011 against the Cardinals. The next year they lost in the one game playoff and haven't been back since. Then last year they were favored in the West, when a miserable rash of injuries hit either knocking out or impairing Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo and Derek Holland. Then at the beginning of this year, Yu Darvish had to have Tommy John surgery, shelving him all season. Going beyond karmic reasons, their rotation now boasts one of the top combination of 1-2-3 starters in the league with Cole Hamels, Yovani Gallardo and Colby Lewis. Prince Fielder has come back from his injury to hit .316/.380/.474 with 17 homers. Mitch Moreland is having an unusually good season, Adrian Beltre has had his usual solid season.
Why they won't
Since coming to the Lone Star State, Hamels has posted a decent ERA of 3.89, but his FIP is lagging behind at 4.21, implying he's been getting somewhat lucky. Those balls being put in play hard could find holes at any time. Hopefully for Texas that time won't be during a crucial game in late September.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Why they'll make it
I don't know, maybe because they have the best overall player of this generation and one of the greatest first basemen of all time.
Why they won't
The rest of the roster. Outside Trout and Pujols, C.J. Cron and Kole Calhoun are the only other active players in the lineup with an OPS+ over 100. Overall they make up an offense that's last in the AL in park adjusted offense. The pitching hasn't much better. Two fifths of their rotation are Jared Weaver and Matt Shoemaker, each sporting ERAs above four. As the Twins are proving right now with Mike "I've sucked my entire career and still suckered Ryan into giving me a two year extension" Pelfrey and Ervin "Somehow I contributed more while suspended" Santana*, it's hard to win when your offense has to score al least five runs twice a week, especially this offense.
*I wrote that before Sunday night's gem against the Astros. We'll see how it works out.
Baltimore Orioles
Why they'll make it
Manny Machado has had a breakout year, batting .289/.355/.496 out of the leadoff spot. Their suspect starting rotation has been helped by a dominant bullpen, led by Zach Britton, Brad Brach and Darren O'Day, all of whom have ERAs under 2.70 and are striking out at least ten batters per nine innings.
Why they won't
The O's are already on their way out. They've lost ten of their last 11, which, from the Twins perspective is good, (four game sweep in Baltimore) and infuriating. (Damn it, Orioles would it kill you to beat the Rangers once so taking 2/3 from the Astros isn't a complete waste?) Much of the slump can be chalked up to a lack of hitting. In those ten losses, the Orioles haven't scored more than three runs in any of those games. Particularly slumping are the guys with the highest expectations. Adam Jones is hitting .245/.275/.408 in the last two weeks. Machado's hitting .204/.271/.296, and Chris Davis has a line of .178/.288/.289 with over three times as many strikeouts (25) as hits (8).
Tampa Bay Rays
Why they'll make it
Kevin Kiermaier has developed into one of more underrated players in the game, swatting a league leading 12 triples while also leading all center fielders in defensive runs saved with 35. That helps out an excellent pitching staff. Led by Chris Archer they all have ERAs under four.
Why they won't
As good as their pitching is, the Rays might not have enough hitting to keep up. Logan Forsythe is leading the team in batting at .281 and nobody's hitting more than 15 homers. If they make it it'll be with a lot of 1-0 and 2-1 games.
Minnesota Twins
Why they'll make it
Young talent. Eddie Rosario is raw, but is hitting .272 and has a cannon in the outfield. Byron Buxton, the future, the five tool stud who's supposed to own the game someday, hasn't done as well. But that's ok. Two things to remember with Buck and his near impossible to achieve expectations. 1) He's 21 years old. 2) We have to be patient. It took Aaron Hicks over three years before he figured it out. But none of that matters right now because of Miguel Sano. The powerful righty is hitting .287/.398/.591 and showing unprecedented patience. The biggest difference between Sano and Buxton is how Sano lays off breaking balls in the dirt. Buxton swings through them just like Rosario, Vargas, Arcia and a lot of young hitters. The future's in good hands.
Why they won't
Any stat nerd will tell you that the Twins are getting lucky this year because of their high batting average with runners in scoring position. Also, their rotation is atrocious. Take Sano out of the lineup and it becomes horribly stagnant and there's a nagging feeling that they just aren't that good. But they just keep winning.
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