1. Boston Red Sox
How does the phrase "David Price third starter" sound? Even if he's not as good as he used to be this team is loaded. Mookie Betts will be an MVP candidate again, and an improved pitching staff with Chris Sale and a full season of Andrew Benintendi should compensate for losing David Ortiz. Also: I'm calling it right now. I think we see the good version of Pablo Sandoval this year.
2. Toronto Blue Jays*
The East gets pretty tough here. The Sox are clearly the class of the division, but then the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Orioles are all tightly bunched together looking for second place. Toronto's going to miss Edwin Encarnacion, but Buatista and Donaldson lead a lineup that should score enough runs for a capable pitching staff. They won't be as good as last year, but that's okay.
3. New York Yankees
Here's a team that's really hard to project. The one thing we know for sure is that the bullpen is going to be dominant. What we don't know is whether Gary Sanchez will be able to build on his unbelievable rookie year or how he or Greg Bird will fare in a full big league season. There's a lot to like here, but there are just too many questions.
4. Baltimore Orioles
Manny Machado is a stud, but ultimately Baltimore is going to need pitching if they want to contend. Best case scenario: Machado wins MVP, Adam Jones is an All-Star, and Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo hit enough homers to compensate for a somewhat weak starting rotation. Worst case scenario: Davis and Trumbo combine for approximately 700 strikeouts, the Orioles go into a freefall without a legitimate number one starter and Machado flees for New York in the offseason.
5. Tampa Bay Rays
With the exception of Kevin Kiermaier, everyone on this team peaked at least two years ago: Matt Duffy, Evan Longoria, Chris Archer. The East is a strong division and there just isn't room for the Rays to contend.
1. Cleveland Indians
The defending AL champs have a chance to be even better this year. They signed Edwin Encarnacion to a reasonable three year 60 million dollar deal and they'll get Michael Brantley and his five tools back at some point. Throwing them onto a team that didn't lose anyone from last season? This could be fun.
2. Kansas City Royals
I really wanted to pick the Royals to win the Central but couldn't quite justify it with the Indians making improvements. Regardless, the Royals had my favorite trade of the offseason, flipping one year of a closer (Wade Davis) to the Cubs for a 25 year old power hitting outfielder in Jorge Soler. If Soler plays to his potential, this could be a very dangerous lineup along with Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas.
3. Detroit Tigers
A year ago, it looked like the Tigers run of dominance was coming to an end. Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera were a combined 69 years old, Justin Verlander had clearly peaked several years earlier and it was only a matter of time before they had to rebuild. A year later, Martinez and Cabrera haven't shown any signs of slowing down, Verlander had a resurgence, getting healthier, increasing his velocity and becoming a Cy Young contender again. Even better, young Nick Castellanos (.285/.331/.496) and Michael Fulmer (3.06 ERA) emerged to provide some much needed youth in Detroit. I may have them in third, but this is a tough division and I wouldn't sleep on them.
4. Minnesota Twins
This entire site is devoted to the Twins, so I won't waste my thoughts here. There's a longer column coming soon.
5. Chicago White Sox
Every GM should study the White Sox offseason as a lesson on how to rebuild. In the span of two days, they flipped a top pitcher that they only had one year of control left on and a very good but not great outfielder into arguably the top pitching and hitting prospects in the game, along with a pitcher who can hit triple digits. Nothing's going to happen this year, but stay tuned on the Sox.
1. Texas Rangers
This is a pretty complete overall team. Cole Hamels should contend for a Cy Young. That along with a lineup with no holes in it should be enough to win a division that's solid but unspectacular.
2. Houston Astros*
Very similar to the Rangers, there's a deep and talented lineup in Houston, particularly with a terrifying top three in George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa. The biggest question here is hitting. Dallas Keuchel probably isn't going to contend for a Cy Young again but Lance McCullers is only going to keep getting better. Ultimately this is a very good team, but to ascend a level they're going to need to add some pitching.
3. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have emerged as the trendy pick to make the playoffs this season but it's going to be tough with two objectively better rosters in their division. The Cano-Seager-Cruz combination should put up some runs, but there isn't enough depth lower in the order and Felix Hernandez won't be able to do it himself as far as the pitching staff goes.
4. Los Angeles Angels
This is a sneaky-good team. Beyond Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, they have some solid OBP guys with Yunel Escobar and Kole Calhoun and Cameron Maybin quietly had a very solid season last year, hitting .315/.383/.418 in 391 plate appearances. However, there just isn't enough pitching for a playoff run. As a Twins fan, I say this pretty confidently: Don't trust Ricky Nolasco as your number two starter. You will be disappointed.
5. Oakland Athletics
This is a terrible team playing in a terrible ballpark. Don't watch the A's unless you're really missing
MVP: Mike Trout
Yeah, it's a safe pick, but he's the best player in the league and there isn't even a close second. I'm taking Trout until someone proves to be better.
Cy Young: Corey Kluber
Michael Brantley returning should only provide more defense behind him, Chris Sale wasn't quite up to his otherworldly standards last season, I'll take someone proven.
Rookie of the Year: Andrew Benintendi
It's always tough to predict ROY because it could easily be someone who doesn't make an opening day roster. I'll go with Benintendi just because it's a sure thing that he'll get at bats barring an injury.
Wild card: Blue Jays over Astros
ALDS: Indians over Blue Jays, Red Sox over Rangers
ALCS: Indians over Red Sox
NL coming tomorrow. Stay tuned.