My NL preview is a litttle late. Sue me. Here are the predictions.
East
1. Washington Nationals
I broke down the Nationals last week. You can see most of my thoughts on them here.
2. New York Mets
This is a solid overall team, with a potentially elite rotation if everyone stays healthy. That said, I'm just not sure they have enough to take down the Nationals. They'll need a MVP-caliber season from Cespedes, some production from Curtis Granderson and Jose Reyes in addition to everyone staying healthy.
3. Atlanta Braves
If I had to choose a team to surprise people, I'd go with the Braves. Dansby Swanson has the potential to be right up there with Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor for top young shortstops in baseball. From there, Freddie Freeman quietly had a monster season last year, hitting .304/.400/.569 with 34 homers and Ender Inciarte is one of the most underrated players in the league, hitting .281 last year and saving 15 runs with his glove. The biggest question is pitching. Beyond Julio Teheran, they're going to need R.A. Dickey to turn back the clock and Bartolo Colon to be consistent at age 43.
4. Miami Marlins
This isn't a bad lineup, especially with the 3-4-5 combination of Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna. That said, the staff was already thin before the death of Jose Fernandez, and when Edinson Volquez and Wei-Yin Chen are your top starters you're going to have problems.
5. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are like the Twins of the NL: They have a few exciting players that'll be fun to watch this year, that said, very few of them are pitchers and contention is out of the question until they shore up the rotation. Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco will be enjoyable, but if they're not up feel free to change the channel.
Central
1. Chicago Cubs
I don't even have anything to say about the Cubs. They're bringing back everyone from last years team except Dexter Fowler, who they're replacing with a full year of Kyle Schwarber. If everyone stays healthy I don't see any scenario where they don't make the World Series again.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
The Redbirds savvily added Dexter Fowler, both bringing in the leadoff hitter they need while also taking away a key contributor from their biggest rival. Overall, this roster isn't quite as strong as some recent Cardinal teams, particularly beyond Carlos Martinez in the rotation but this is the St. Louis Cardinals were talking about. They find a way to win infuriatingly often and with unknown players.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
If I trusted Josh Bell a tiny bit more I would have taken the Pirates over the Cardinals. First base is a gaping hole in Pittsburgh and I'm just not sure he'll be able to put together an entire productive season at the plate. Andrew McCutchen wasn't quite as bad as it seemed last season, but I think he is better this year regardless; he had a career low BABIP last season.
4. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds ahve the potential to be good in a year or two. Joey Votto continues to be one of the best hitters in the league, and Devin Mesoraco is a solid backstop. Billy Hamilton made strides last year, to the point that he's no longer a complete liability with the bat. As with many teams, the problem is in pitching. Robert Stephenson and Brandon Finnegan both have the potential to be good, but to expect that this year is too much, especially in this division.
5. Milwaukee Brewers
This most important of the Brewers' season will be what that they can get for Ryan Braun at the trade deadline. Needless to say, that isn't a good thing. Other important parts of the Brewers season, in descending order: Orlando Arcia's development, Jonathan Villar continuing to hit, Bernie Brewer's mustache, and their fans not breaking too many things before the Packer season starts.
West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
I currently have an irrational hatred for the Dodgers for refusing to budge and give up any more than Jose De Leon in a potential Dozier trade this offseason. Dozier would have joined a potent lineup with Justin Turner and Corey Seager. Instead, Los Angeles cashed that De Leon trade chip in on Logan Forsythe, who isn't as good as Dozier but hit .268 with a .333 on base percentage and adequate defense in Tampa Bay.
2. San Francisco Giants
Their even year magic ended last season, but this is still a pretty good team. They added Mark Melancon to remedy their biggest problem: blowing leads. There's no reason to think he's meltdown on opening day is an indicator for the rest of the season. Beyond him. this is a pretty steady and balanced roster that should contend for a playoff spot.
3. Colorado Rockies
The lineup is good. Obviously. This is Denver. D.J. LeMahieu is one of the most underrated second basemen in the league, hitting .348 last year and posting a miniscule 12.4% strikeout rate, very valuable given today's strikeout crazy time. The biggest question mark is the pitching. Both Tyler Anderson and Jon Gray posted better fielding-independent numbers than their ERAs would suggest but the key here will be rookies Jeff Hoffman and Kyle Freeland. Hoffman, the centerpiece of the Troy Tulowitzki trade, is starting the year in the minors but figures to be up eventually. Freeland is a former first rounder who was solid in the minors. If they play to their potential Colorado could be dangerous.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
I actually kind of like this roster. Paul Goldschmidt keeps quietly putting up huge numbers and being one of the best overall players in the league. Speaking of underrated, A.J. Pollock's back after being injured for most of last season. Still, Zack Greinke doesn't seem to be coming back anytime soon, and beyond Goldschmidt and Pollock, the lineup is pretty thin.
5. San Diego Padres
The Friars have a starting lineup that will be good in 2019 and a pitching rotation that would have been good in 2013. They also have someone named Kevin Quackenbush. So that's fun.
Awards
MVP: Starling Marte
I'm going with a bit of a surprise for MVP, but Marte has been one of the best outfielders in baseball for the last few years. Last season he hit .311/.362/.456, stole 47 bases and was arguably the best defensive outfielder in the NL. I predict he takes another step forward in 2017, bringing a little more power like he did in 2015 when he hit 19 homers and takes home the award in a pretty wide open NL field.
Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
I'm taking Kershaw for the same reason I chose Mike Trout to win MVP in the AL: He is so indisputably better than everyone else I'm taking him every year until someone proves to be better than him.
Rookie of the Year: Dansby Swanson
I was really surprised when I saw Swanson didn't lose his eligibility last year. As one of the few rookies with an impressive big league resume already, he's the obvious choice.
Playoffs
Wild card game: Giants over Cardinals
NLDS: Cubs over Cardinals, Dodgers over Nationals
NLCS: Cubs over Dodgers
World Series: Indians over Cubs
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