Kirby Puckett

Kirby Puckett

Sunday, April 1, 2018

MLB Preview 2018! AL Edition

I'm a little late. Don't worry, I was late last year and the predictions sure as hell weren't any better than usual. Asterisk denotes wildcard.
East
New York Yankees
This is the worst. A season after I thought my Yankees hate had peaked they go out and get the best slugger in the game. I could see Stanton and Judge combining for 115 homers this year. Another prediction: Greg Bird has a breakout season. The starting rotation will be good enough. They can give up four runs in six innings before handing it off to Kahnle, Betances, Chapman and Robertson. Not that it will matter because the lineup will have already scored eight runs. This is going to suck.
Boston Red Sox*
J.D. Martinez was my favorite signing of the offseason. This was a quietly really good lineup all year and now they're getting better. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts both had mildly disappointing seasons last year, but they're both young and have shown the ability to play better than that, so I think they'll bounce back. The biggest question mark is pitching. Chris Sale will be great as usual, and Drew Pomeranz was a nice surprise, but David Price and Rick Porcello need to return to form for the Bosox to hang with the Yankees.
Toronto Blue Jays
The back end of the East is surprisingly weak this year. The Blue Jays have just run out of gas. Encarnacion and Bautista are gone, Donaldson and Tulowitzki aren't who they used to be. They had their shot in the 2015 ALCS and it's over now. If I'm Ross Atkins I'm getting rid of Donaldson, Russell Martin and Kendrys Morales, hanging on to Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar and Marcus Stroman and trying to go big in next year's free agent class.
Baltimore Orioles
Things the Orioles need to happen to surprise this year: Manny Machado has a career year (conceivable), Tim Beckham shows why he was a number one pick (also conceivable given his reworked swing. He's trying to follow J.D. Martinez and Josh Donaldson as guys who put the ball in the air more), Chance Sisco has a great rookie year (possible) and they get a little help from their starting pitching (not as likely).
Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Archer will be better than he was last year. I don't think he's ever returning to his 2015 form, but he'll be solid. But the most important part of the Rays is the outfield. The reunion we've been waiting for.. Denard Span and Carlos Gomez together again at last. Kevin Pillar between them, this could be a great- oh, never mind.
Central
Cleveland Indians
I don't know what happened against the Yankees in the ALDS. It might have been that this is a young team and the pressure and expectations got to them. I don't know if they just had the bad luck of their pitching failing them at the wrong time. I do know one thing: the Indians in the regular season were really good. Over the offseason they lost Jay Bruce but added Yonder Alonso. We'll see if Francisco Lindor can combine the power he showed last year with the average he had the previous two years. They're going to roll through the next six months.
Minnesota Twins*
Losing Jorge Polanco for the first 80 games is going to hurt. Polanco was great as the three hitter in August and September. Beyond that, I think this will be better than last season. It would be hard for the pitching to be worse, but if Odorizzi figures it out and the Gibson that showed up after the All-Star break isn't an illusion this could be a lot of fun.
Chicago White Sox
I kind of like this lineup. Avisail Garcia broke out last year and Yoan Moncada will be fun. I'm also a much bigger Nicky Delmonico fan than most. On the pitching side, Lucas Giolito is finally healthy. This isn't their year, but the White Sox could be fun down the road.
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City had a pretty strange 2017. They looked like the Bad News Bears in April, going 7-16 before turning it around and even making a brief push for a wildcard. But without Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez (for at least a month or two) they don't have much of a shot this season. They're bringing back enough guys from that mediocre team that they can be less than mediocre in a weak division.
Detroit Tigers
As ugly as this roster is, Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera are still on it, and even at a combined 157 years old they still scare the living daylights out of me in any big situation. Nick Castellanos has quietly become a solid third baseman, but there just isn't much on this team.
West
Houston Astros
Houston continues to do everything right. After writing the book of how to build a winner from the ground up last year they added a chapter titled "Don't be Complacent After Winning the World Series". Gerrit Cole is a bounce-back candidate. I think he'll benefit from a change of scenery. Everyone's returning from the lineup. The Astros will playing deep into October.
Los Angeles Angels
I was a big believer in Shohei Ohtani this winter. After seeing him in Spring Training, I am somewhat less of a believer. I don't have a ton to analyze other than to say he just hasn't looked that good. This will be an interesting subplot throughout the season. Most of my other Angels thoughts are here.
Seattle Mariners
I really want to pick the Mariners to make the playoffs. I love Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano and Dee Gordon. But ultimately, I don't trust James Paxton and the rest of the pitching staff to do enough to keep the Mariners competitive.
Texas Rangers
I'd be a lot more excited about the Rangers if it was five years ago. To make a run Elvis Andrus, Cole Hamels, Shin-Soo Choo and Doug Fister will all have to discover a time machine buried in an oil field or something. Willie Calhoun and Nomar Mazara could be fun, but that's about it.
Oakland Athletics
The A's have a few guys with some Todd Frazier potential. That's about it. This is the closest thing the AL has to the Marlins.
Awards
MVP: Mike Trout
This is something like the fifth year in a row I've chosen Trout. And you know what? I'm not stopping picking him. He's the best player in baseball and no one else is particularly close. He would have won last year if he hadn't gotten injured. There's no reason the expect anything else in 2018.
Cy Young: Chris Sale
The fact that he seems to fall off at the end of every year is a bit concerning, but I think this is finally the year he wins it.
Rookie of the Year: Shohei Ohtani
After Spring Training I'm not feeling great about this pick. But I figure he'll at least be good at one thing and that will be enough for him to win it.
Playoffs
Wildcard Game: Twins over Red Sox
ALDS: Astros over Twins, Indians over Yankees
ALCS: Indians over Astros

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