Let's get this first part out of the way before we start: I'm not particularly concerned with this upcoming Timberwolves-Rockets playoff series. I get that the Rockets are coming off of their best season since the Hakeem Olajuwon days and have a historically great offense. I know the Wolves are huge underdogs and an eight has only beaten a one three times since the turn of the century. I don't care about that. I used to go to Wolves games when the Target Center was so quiet you could hear the shoes squeaking off the floor and Dante Cunningham was in the starting lineup. Just to be playing in a best-of-seven is plenty for me. With that said, the Timberwolves do seem to be getting overlooked just a tad by the national media going into the series.
Every April, the basketball writers at ESPN make their picks for each round of the playoffs. Of the 22 writers who made selections, all 22 had the Rockets winning. One had them winning in seven games. The other 21 had them in four or five. Again, I get that the Timberwolves have an uphill battle, but that seems extreme.
For starters, the Wolves aren't a typical eight seed. When Jimmy Butler went down with a meniscus injury on February 23, they were 36-26 and one game behind the Spurs for third place in the conference. The Rockets would be favored against any other team in the West, but it's hard to picture them being considered a slam-dunk like they are now if this was a typical one-three matchup that would happen in the second round and would have been plausible if Minnesota had the roster they're using now for the entire season.
Another thing to keep in mind: James Harden has never exactly been known as a killer in the playoffs. For his career, he averages three fewer points, one fewer assist and shoots at a roughly four percent clip worse in the playoffs than he does in the regular season. This doesn't mean that trend will automatically continue into this year, but it is something to watch for.
The biggest key for the Wolves is Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins has taken a lot of heat this year for various reasons. He takes possessions off on defense, he plays too passively, he settles for jump shots. All that's true. But if the Andrew Wiggins that played against Denver in the regular season finale shows up to this series it will be competition. Offensively that night, Wiggins was patient but not passive on offense, shooting 5-for-9 and scoring 18 points. More importantly, his defense showed why he was considered a lockdown defender coming out of Kansas in 2014. He embraced his role on the team and did enough to contribute to the season-saving victory.
Keeping the Rockets pick-and-roll game in check will be essential if the Wolves want any shot at keeping the series competitive. With Butler most likely guarding Harden Wiggins will need to provide some help defense to contain it.
If I had wanted to keep this column shorter I could have only mentioned one reason the Wolves will be competitive and it would have been two words long: Jimmy Butler. Butler is capable of getting hot at any point and swinging a game by himself. We saw it in December against the Nuggets when he went for 39 including 12 in overtime. As good as the Rockets are they aren't a great defensive team. If Harden folds under the pressure of being the one seed, Wiggins plays well like he has at points this year and Butler goes off, there's no reason this series can't at least be interesting. Let's get this started.
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