Paul Molitor: Figure out what to do with the pitching staff
Right now, the contenders for the five starting rotation spots are Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Tommy Milone, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Tyler Duffy, Jose Berrios and Tyler May. We can assume that Gibson, Hughes and Santana will make it. That leaves two spots for five guys. I'm a big fan of Duffy, he pitched very well down the stretch last season, posting a 3.10 ERA. However, unlike some guys who start out great, advanced stats say it wasn't just a flash in the pan. His FIP was 3.24, along with a respectable 2.65 strikeout per walk ratio, good enough for 47th in the league among starters had he qualified. I'd put him in the fourth spot until he loses it. For the last two, I would go with anyone but Nolasco. He was badly overpaid from the start, and isn't in the plans for the future. It would be better in the short and long term for Milone (quietly productive all last season), Berrios or May to take those spots.
Twins fans: Stop being jerks to Joe Mauer
Joe Mauer had one of the best seasons for a catcher in the history of the game in 2009. He continued to be productive through 2012 and most of 2013 before some bad luck and just being past his prime slowed him down. Even then, he's been an above average on-base guy, posting an OBP of .348 in the last two years when he's been "bad". Also, you can complain about the contract all you want, but I think some of you mindless Mauer haters don't even seem to notice it's down to three years at this point, and above all, why do you care about his contract? Unless you're a member of the Pohlad family, you're not paying for it, so why do care? Yeah, it makes him untradeable but that doesn't matter because it's only for another two years before the contract's expiring.
Norv Turner: Get Cordarrele Patterson more involved in the offense
Bill Musgrave was a horrible offensive coordinator but at least he knew how to get Patterson involved in the offense. Patterson isn't a very good route runner, but in Musgrave's offense he didn't need to be a Stefon Diggs-like deep threat, he got the ball on a lot of screens and reverses. Right now one of the fastest and most talented guys on the team is being wasted doing nothing but returning kickoffs. That needs to change.
Sam Mitchell: Stop the LaVine at point guard experiment
While he's incredibly athletic, Zach LaVine doesn't have a great sense of the game playing his natural shooting guard, much less learning a new position. The Wolves are so much more efficient with Rubio running the point and LaVine on the wing. Mitchell should stop trying to force LaVine at point guard and let Tyus Jones get experience backing up Rubio.
Dan Gladden: Resign
Michael Cuddyer: Replace Gladden as Cory Provus's partner
Let's make this happen.
Kirby Puckett
Tuesday, December 29, 2015
Thursday, December 24, 2015
More Offseason Moves
Phillies-Astros
Phillies get: Mark Appel, Harold Arauz, Thomas Eshelman, Vince Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer
Astros get: Ken Giles, Jonathan Arauz
With the Braves pulling a highway robbery on the Diamondbacks, this deal isn't getting enough credit for being lopsided. Ken Giles is a dominant reliever, but relievers are never worth the kind of package the Astros sent to Philadelphia. It's that simple. Even though he's struggled, Mark Appel was a number one overall pick just a few years ago, and Thomas Eshelman and Harold Arauz are both solid prospects. Every year there's a glut of relievers available at the trade deadline, it's completely unnecessary to blow so much on one good one.
Ben Zobrist to the Cubs
After being underrated, then overrated from being called underrated so often, Zobrist isn't anything right now. Just a solid, versatile player who can get on base and contribute to any team.
Jason Heyward to the Cubs
There's a lot to like about this move for both sides, including the 2-3-4 combination of Heyward, Rizzo and Bryant, delusional Cardinals fans being unable to comprehend the idea of anyone not wanting to be in St. Louis and calling Heyward a "traitor" even though he was only there for one season, the fact that Heyward's only 26, and the flexibility the Cubs now have in the outfield.
Johnny Cueto to the Giants
It was looking like Cueto was going to cost himself a lot of money in the second half of the year with the Royals. Then the playoffs happened, and he proved he can still pitch like the Cincinnati version of himself. I like this fit with the Giants, their massive park will help out Cueto, a terrific bounce-back candidate.
Diamondbacks-Braves
Diamondbacks get: Shelby Miller, Gabe Speier
Braves get: Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte, Aaron Blair
When I first heard about this move, I pictured the negotiations happening like one of the Hangover movies. I pictured Braves GM John Coppolella taking D-Backs GM Dave Stewart to a bar, followed by Stewart blacking out and waking up the next morning to find out he traded Swanson and Inciarte for Shelby freaking Miller. Miller's a solid, young pitcher, but that's it. He isn't worth gutting your farm system for. From the Braves' perspective, this is an absolute pillaging. They just made off with a 21-year-old shortstop with superstar potential along with the underrated Inciarte (.303/.338/.408 with 21 stolen bases last year). In a year where they weren't going to contend anyway, they are well set up for the future.
Phillies get: Mark Appel, Harold Arauz, Thomas Eshelman, Vince Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer
Astros get: Ken Giles, Jonathan Arauz
With the Braves pulling a highway robbery on the Diamondbacks, this deal isn't getting enough credit for being lopsided. Ken Giles is a dominant reliever, but relievers are never worth the kind of package the Astros sent to Philadelphia. It's that simple. Even though he's struggled, Mark Appel was a number one overall pick just a few years ago, and Thomas Eshelman and Harold Arauz are both solid prospects. Every year there's a glut of relievers available at the trade deadline, it's completely unnecessary to blow so much on one good one.
Ben Zobrist to the Cubs
After being underrated, then overrated from being called underrated so often, Zobrist isn't anything right now. Just a solid, versatile player who can get on base and contribute to any team.
Jason Heyward to the Cubs
There's a lot to like about this move for both sides, including the 2-3-4 combination of Heyward, Rizzo and Bryant, delusional Cardinals fans being unable to comprehend the idea of anyone not wanting to be in St. Louis and calling Heyward a "traitor" even though he was only there for one season, the fact that Heyward's only 26, and the flexibility the Cubs now have in the outfield.
Johnny Cueto to the Giants
It was looking like Cueto was going to cost himself a lot of money in the second half of the year with the Royals. Then the playoffs happened, and he proved he can still pitch like the Cincinnati version of himself. I like this fit with the Giants, their massive park will help out Cueto, a terrific bounce-back candidate.
Diamondbacks-Braves
Diamondbacks get: Shelby Miller, Gabe Speier
Braves get: Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte, Aaron Blair
When I first heard about this move, I pictured the negotiations happening like one of the Hangover movies. I pictured Braves GM John Coppolella taking D-Backs GM Dave Stewart to a bar, followed by Stewart blacking out and waking up the next morning to find out he traded Swanson and Inciarte for Shelby freaking Miller. Miller's a solid, young pitcher, but that's it. He isn't worth gutting your farm system for. From the Braves' perspective, this is an absolute pillaging. They just made off with a 21-year-old shortstop with superstar potential along with the underrated Inciarte (.303/.338/.408 with 21 stolen bases last year). In a year where they weren't going to contend anyway, they are well set up for the future.
Sunday, December 6, 2015
Offseason Moves
David Price to the Red Sox
I have two uncles, an aunt and two cousins who live in Boston. They get very defensive if you compare the Red Sox to the Yankees as far as spending money goes. But I don't care because that's who they've become. Every year in free agency they just throw a ton of money at whoever they can without thinking about how they'll actually fit in. Last year they signed Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, even though they played the same position and they had to move Hanley to left field. Now they're signing an excellent, reliable pitcher for seven years and 217 million and have nobody to put around him. Aside from 2013, their last five years have been an absolute garbage can fire in Boston. That 2013 season was the one year they didn't spend a ton of money in the offseason. They signed Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, Shane Victorino and Koji Uehara to relatively small contracts. It worked because they all had a specific role, and the Sox have gotten away from that recently. This is ending badly.
Nori Aoki to the Mariners
Aoki's been one of the most underrated players in the league since he was with Milwaukee, batting a career .287/.353/.386 and averaging 20 stolen bases per year. While he's never had much power, the Mariners don't need a lot of firepower. They need someone to get on for Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager. And Aoki can do that.
Jordan Zimmermann to the Tigers
Zimmermann had a slightly underwhelming season with the Nats last year, so 110 million seems like a bit much, but he still had an ERA of 3.66. At the very least he's a solid number two starter, a number one if he rebounds.
Mike Pelfrey to the Tigers
I have to seriously question the fact that anyone in the Tigers' front office watched Mike Pelfrey more than once ever. The Twins took a risk on him in 2013 with a one year deal. He was terrible. For some bizarre reason, Terry Ryan gave him a two year extension, which worked out about how you would expect it to. It wasn't just that Pelfrey was horrible, it was how he was horrible. Nobody wasted more run support than Pelfrey, who apparently felt it was sporting to allow the opposing team to score right after the Twins had a big inning and the Tigers gave this man TWO YEARS. As a Twins fan, nothing makes me happier than knowing Mike Pelfrey is pitching for someone else in the AL Central.
Zack Greinke to the Diamondbacks
After getting rejected by Johnny Cueto, the D-Backs weren't discouraged, frying an even better fish. Greinke will now bring some pitching to a team with a quietly terrific lineup led by Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock. $207 million is a lot of money to pay, but given what the Red Sox gave Price and how close the team is to contending, this is a good deal.
I have two uncles, an aunt and two cousins who live in Boston. They get very defensive if you compare the Red Sox to the Yankees as far as spending money goes. But I don't care because that's who they've become. Every year in free agency they just throw a ton of money at whoever they can without thinking about how they'll actually fit in. Last year they signed Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, even though they played the same position and they had to move Hanley to left field. Now they're signing an excellent, reliable pitcher for seven years and 217 million and have nobody to put around him. Aside from 2013, their last five years have been an absolute garbage can fire in Boston. That 2013 season was the one year they didn't spend a ton of money in the offseason. They signed Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, Shane Victorino and Koji Uehara to relatively small contracts. It worked because they all had a specific role, and the Sox have gotten away from that recently. This is ending badly.
Nori Aoki to the Mariners
Aoki's been one of the most underrated players in the league since he was with Milwaukee, batting a career .287/.353/.386 and averaging 20 stolen bases per year. While he's never had much power, the Mariners don't need a lot of firepower. They need someone to get on for Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager. And Aoki can do that.
Jordan Zimmermann to the Tigers
Zimmermann had a slightly underwhelming season with the Nats last year, so 110 million seems like a bit much, but he still had an ERA of 3.66. At the very least he's a solid number two starter, a number one if he rebounds.
Mike Pelfrey to the Tigers
I have to seriously question the fact that anyone in the Tigers' front office watched Mike Pelfrey more than once ever. The Twins took a risk on him in 2013 with a one year deal. He was terrible. For some bizarre reason, Terry Ryan gave him a two year extension, which worked out about how you would expect it to. It wasn't just that Pelfrey was horrible, it was how he was horrible. Nobody wasted more run support than Pelfrey, who apparently felt it was sporting to allow the opposing team to score right after the Twins had a big inning and the Tigers gave this man TWO YEARS. As a Twins fan, nothing makes me happier than knowing Mike Pelfrey is pitching for someone else in the AL Central.
Zack Greinke to the Diamondbacks
After getting rejected by Johnny Cueto, the D-Backs weren't discouraged, frying an even better fish. Greinke will now bring some pitching to a team with a quietly terrific lineup led by Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock. $207 million is a lot of money to pay, but given what the Red Sox gave Price and how close the team is to contending, this is a good deal.
Saturday, November 28, 2015
Philly's Bizarre Strategy
Things are looking good as a Timberwolves fan. Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns have reinvigorated the franchise. Right now they're 7-8 after going 16-66 last year. Contrast that with the Philadelphia 76ers. At the moment they're 0-16. Last year they started off 0-17 en route to a 18-64 season. It's all because of GM Sam Presti's radical strategy of bottoming out for a high pick to potentially get a franchise player. It's a good strategy in theory, the more top picks you have the more likely you are to get a great player, but history says it just doesn't work.
The draft started in 1950, and since then the worst five teams were the '12 Bobcats, '73 Sixers, '93 Mavericks, '98 Nuggets and '87 Clippers. The Bobcats ended up with the number two overall pick and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. They've made the playoffs once since then as an eight seed in 2014 when they were swept by the Heat. The Sixers were rewarded for they're abysmal season in '73 with Doug Collins. 'Nuff said. They went on to make the playoffs four years later but mainly because they acquired Julius Erving. After the Mavericks went 11-71 in 1998 they didn't end up with Chris Webber, who went number one that year, but Jamal Mashburn. They would make the playoffs eight years later The Nuggets chose Raef LaFrentz, the Clippers took Reggie Williams. I could go on and on. My point is just being terrible doesn't work.
Need some more evidence? The top ten leaders in the NBA's average draft position is eighth overall. Yeah, it includes a few number one picks, most were outside the top five.
Obviously the ultimately goal for any franchise in any sport is to win a championship. If the Sixers are planning on doing that it will have been in a pretty uncommon way. Last year's champs, the Warriors best player was the seventh pick in his draft. (exactly one pick after Jonny Flynn. Damn you David Kahn) They took their second best player 11th. They took their third best player 35th. The finals MVP was an offseason acquisition. Before the Warriors the Spurs were champions. They had the first pick in 1997 when they took Tim Duncan and haven't picked in the lottery since then. Before that the Heat rode LeBron, Wade and Bosh to two straight Championships. Going back to 2011, the Mavericks beat the Heat. The Mavs hadn't drafted in the lottery in ten years. The two years before that the Lakers won with Kobe Bryant, who had been there since 1996 and Pau Gasol, who they had gotten in a lopsided trade with Memphis. If you want to go farther back than that, the Celtics won in 2008 after trading for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen.
In one paragraph I just went back to 2008, using a few minutes of sloppy research and a bunch of thoughts of the top of my head to point out how every champion was formed. They all had one thing in common: they were built on more than just drafting. So Sam Presti can keep dealing away every tangible asset for more picks, but the Sixers could have the most desolate future of anyone in the league.
Oh yeah, I forgot about you Brooklyn Nets.
The draft started in 1950, and since then the worst five teams were the '12 Bobcats, '73 Sixers, '93 Mavericks, '98 Nuggets and '87 Clippers. The Bobcats ended up with the number two overall pick and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. They've made the playoffs once since then as an eight seed in 2014 when they were swept by the Heat. The Sixers were rewarded for they're abysmal season in '73 with Doug Collins. 'Nuff said. They went on to make the playoffs four years later but mainly because they acquired Julius Erving. After the Mavericks went 11-71 in 1998 they didn't end up with Chris Webber, who went number one that year, but Jamal Mashburn. They would make the playoffs eight years later The Nuggets chose Raef LaFrentz, the Clippers took Reggie Williams. I could go on and on. My point is just being terrible doesn't work.
Need some more evidence? The top ten leaders in the NBA's average draft position is eighth overall. Yeah, it includes a few number one picks, most were outside the top five.
Obviously the ultimately goal for any franchise in any sport is to win a championship. If the Sixers are planning on doing that it will have been in a pretty uncommon way. Last year's champs, the Warriors best player was the seventh pick in his draft. (exactly one pick after Jonny Flynn. Damn you David Kahn) They took their second best player 11th. They took their third best player 35th. The finals MVP was an offseason acquisition. Before the Warriors the Spurs were champions. They had the first pick in 1997 when they took Tim Duncan and haven't picked in the lottery since then. Before that the Heat rode LeBron, Wade and Bosh to two straight Championships. Going back to 2011, the Mavericks beat the Heat. The Mavs hadn't drafted in the lottery in ten years. The two years before that the Lakers won with Kobe Bryant, who had been there since 1996 and Pau Gasol, who they had gotten in a lopsided trade with Memphis. If you want to go farther back than that, the Celtics won in 2008 after trading for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen.
In one paragraph I just went back to 2008, using a few minutes of sloppy research and a bunch of thoughts of the top of my head to point out how every champion was formed. They all had one thing in common: they were built on more than just drafting. So Sam Presti can keep dealing away every tangible asset for more picks, but the Sixers could have the most desolate future of anyone in the league.
Oh yeah, I forgot about you Brooklyn Nets.
Monday, November 16, 2015
Signing an Asian Prospect, Attempt Number Two
As you've likely heard by now, the Twins have won the rights to negotiate with Korean star Byung-ho Park with a bid of $12.85 million. This is the second time, the Twins have won the rights to an Asian player, the first being the infamous Tsuyoshi Nishioka. The Twins signed the highly touted Japanese middle infielder on December 16, 2010 and released him on September 28, 2012. Between those dates he hit .215/.267/.236. He also had a WAR of -2.4. In other words, you and I contributed more to the Twins than he did in that span. Go ahead and give yourself a pat on the back.
I spent the day researching Park and found out several things. 1. He flips his bat after almost every homer. This will irritate the crap out of Brian McCann when Park comes to the big leagues. Needless to say, this is a good thing.* 2. It is incredibly fun to watch someone hit homers and throw his bat as far as he can all while a very excited man screams in Korean in the background. 3. As for how he actually plays, it's hard to tell from just highlights, but there were several times he demonstrated the ability to hit the ball hard the other way. He can also field pretty well for someone his size (6'1", 236) so I wouldn't be surprised if Mauer played more DH this year.
*After I wrote that it came out that Park won't be flipping his bat in the majors. Disappointing.
A few days after getting the rights to Park the Twins traded Hicks to the Yankees. It was a fine deal for both teams, the Twins ended up with catcher John Ryan Murphy. Murphy should help the Twins' abysmal catching situation, with Kurt Suzuki batting .240/.296/314 last year. Murphy, a former second round draft pick, batted .277 last year in 67 games in 2015. Those two will likely begin the season platooning behind the plate but I could the job gradually becoming more and more Murphy's as the season progresses.
While I like that Terry Ryan's addressing the catching problem, I'm going to miss Hicks. All of last year I wanted to see the outfield combination of Rosario-Buxton-Hicks. All three of them can fly and have powerful arms. Now it's looking like Sano will be put in one of the corner outfield spots with Rosario filling the other and Buxton in center. That's not an awful idea, Sano's young and athletic enough that I think he can handle the outfield, I just have two major problems with it.
The first is how much the outfield defense will suffer replacing Hicks with Sano. I mentioned above how much ground the Rosario-Buxton-Hicks trio could cover, and the Royals have taught us how underrated it is having three good fielders in the grass. More importantly, Hanley Ramirez and the Red Sox have taught us how miserable it can be having an inept corner outfielder. While Sano will almost certainly be better than Hanley, we won't know for sure if he can make the adjustment until the season starts.
My second issue is that who they traded. After the Twins acquired the rights to Park, it became clear Hicks, Plouffe, or Rosario would have to go. I love Trevor Plouffe, he's a fine player and has turned himself into a reliable hitter and decent fielder in the last few years, but this is the best we're going to see from Plouffe. He's been in the league for five years and he 29 years old. The Twins had a nice surprise year last season but they're still a few years from contending. And Plouffe will never be anything but solid, hitting around .240 with homerun numbers in the low 20s and a lot of doubles.
Meanwhile Hicks is only 25 years old and had a breakout season last year, hitting .256/.323/.398 and a red-hot stretch in July when he hit .346/.424/.577. More importantly, Hicks has two elite skills that Plouffe lacks. One is fielding. Plouffe has improved at third base throughout his career but he'll never be Manny Machado there. Hicks on the other had has always been a terrific fielder, posting a UZR of 2.4 last year. The other skill Hicks has is speed, last year he was 13-16 on stolen bases. Plouffe has less than 13 stolen bases in his career.
The Twins made one good move, which lead to an extremely questionable one. We'll see how this plays out.
I spent the day researching Park and found out several things. 1. He flips his bat after almost every homer. This will irritate the crap out of Brian McCann when Park comes to the big leagues. Needless to say, this is a good thing.* 2. It is incredibly fun to watch someone hit homers and throw his bat as far as he can all while a very excited man screams in Korean in the background. 3. As for how he actually plays, it's hard to tell from just highlights, but there were several times he demonstrated the ability to hit the ball hard the other way. He can also field pretty well for someone his size (6'1", 236) so I wouldn't be surprised if Mauer played more DH this year.
*After I wrote that it came out that Park won't be flipping his bat in the majors. Disappointing.
A few days after getting the rights to Park the Twins traded Hicks to the Yankees. It was a fine deal for both teams, the Twins ended up with catcher John Ryan Murphy. Murphy should help the Twins' abysmal catching situation, with Kurt Suzuki batting .240/.296/314 last year. Murphy, a former second round draft pick, batted .277 last year in 67 games in 2015. Those two will likely begin the season platooning behind the plate but I could the job gradually becoming more and more Murphy's as the season progresses.
While I like that Terry Ryan's addressing the catching problem, I'm going to miss Hicks. All of last year I wanted to see the outfield combination of Rosario-Buxton-Hicks. All three of them can fly and have powerful arms. Now it's looking like Sano will be put in one of the corner outfield spots with Rosario filling the other and Buxton in center. That's not an awful idea, Sano's young and athletic enough that I think he can handle the outfield, I just have two major problems with it.
The first is how much the outfield defense will suffer replacing Hicks with Sano. I mentioned above how much ground the Rosario-Buxton-Hicks trio could cover, and the Royals have taught us how underrated it is having three good fielders in the grass. More importantly, Hanley Ramirez and the Red Sox have taught us how miserable it can be having an inept corner outfielder. While Sano will almost certainly be better than Hanley, we won't know for sure if he can make the adjustment until the season starts.
My second issue is that who they traded. After the Twins acquired the rights to Park, it became clear Hicks, Plouffe, or Rosario would have to go. I love Trevor Plouffe, he's a fine player and has turned himself into a reliable hitter and decent fielder in the last few years, but this is the best we're going to see from Plouffe. He's been in the league for five years and he 29 years old. The Twins had a nice surprise year last season but they're still a few years from contending. And Plouffe will never be anything but solid, hitting around .240 with homerun numbers in the low 20s and a lot of doubles.
Meanwhile Hicks is only 25 years old and had a breakout season last year, hitting .256/.323/.398 and a red-hot stretch in July when he hit .346/.424/.577. More importantly, Hicks has two elite skills that Plouffe lacks. One is fielding. Plouffe has improved at third base throughout his career but he'll never be Manny Machado there. Hicks on the other had has always been a terrific fielder, posting a UZR of 2.4 last year. The other skill Hicks has is speed, last year he was 13-16 on stolen bases. Plouffe has less than 13 stolen bases in his career.
The Twins made one good move, which lead to an extremely questionable one. We'll see how this plays out.
Monday, November 9, 2015
Free Agency Preview
Zack Greinke
David Price
There isn't a ton to say about these guys. They're both great, and they're both going to get a ton of money this offseason. For Price, all signs are pointing to him signing with the Cubs. As for Greinke, I would be very surprised if he did anything but the stay with the Dodgers. For the most part, I'm against giving pitchers big contracts. They almost always end badly. That said, if they sign with the Cubs and Dodgers respectively, it won't be too bad because those are both teams who have chances to make the playoffs during their time there. Bottom line: If you have a roster with a chance to go all the way soon, go ahead and sign him, if not, don't. It will end badly.
Johnny Cueto
Cueto self-destructed during the last half of the season, but because of two good starts in the playoffs, he's going to get paid like none of that happened. As ridiculous as that sounds, it's still a good gamble. He's only 29 and his time with the Royals could have been just a hiccup. As I mentioned, above, it's rarely a good idea to sign a pitcher to a long contract, but teams may have no choice for him. He'll get a big deal from someone contending.
Mike Pelfrey
His performance the last few years makes him an ideal fit for the Yomuri Giants of the Nippon Baseball League in Japan.
Jordan Zimmermann
Much like everyone else on the Nats, Zimmermann had an underwhelming season last year, going 13-10 with a 3.66 ERA. That said, even if he never comes back to his 2014 form, he's a reliable number two or three starter for any team looking for a starter but doesn't want to spend a ton of money, like Baltimore.
Matt Wieters
Wieters will never fulfill the expectations people had for him as a rookie, but he's a solid bat from the catching position if he's healthy, batting a career .258/.320/.422. The Twins have been rumored to be interested in getting him, needing somebody after Kurt Suzuki's disastrous season. Wieters excels in Suzuki's biggest weakness (and there are a lot of them) which is throwing out runners. Wieters threw out 31% last year, which would've been eighth in the league if he had qualified. I wouldn't be surprised if he got around three years for 31 million.
Chris Davis
After and unprecedented 53 homer season in 2013 and the follow up year from hell, we have a pretty good idea of who he is. He'll give you power, walks and not a lot else.
Yoenis Cespedes
The second half MVP is drawing interest from the Giants and Angels among others. He's a candidate to get 200 million.
Denard Span
Span was on of the reasons the Nationals disappointed so much last year, injuries forced him to play just 61 games. He was steady in those, however, batting .301/.365/.431. The Mets are supposedly interested in him. If he goes there he'll likely get something like the 4 year $60 Million deal they gave Curtis Granderson.
Dexter Fowler
Fowler is an interesting case. Along with having one of the best names in the league, he's flown under the radar for several years now, as a leadoff hitter and speed threat for several horrible Rockies and one Astros team. That changed this year when he was the catalyst for the power-hitting Cubs. He'll be 30 next year, so he should be good for the next few years.
Jason Heyward
Heyward's been in the league so long it's easy to forget he's only 26. Up until last year he was underperforming, always playing solid, but being capable of doing so much more. Last year he received whatever treatment the Cardinals give all of their players and became the guy he's been teasing us with since 2010: The statistician's best friend who draws a ton of walks, steal bases and cover a ton of ground in center field. I'd argue that he has the most value of anyone in this class.
Justin Upton
If I were a GM, there would be several rules I'd have for myself which I would make sure never to break. These are things like "don't sign a pitcher for longer than four years unless you absolutely have to" and "Don't give up on your prospects too soon". I mention this because another one of them would be "never sign or trade for a member of the Upton family under any circumstances". The are unrelentingly inconsistent, sign them and they will disappoint. Some sucker will give Justin 100 million. I'm betting on the Nationals. After a season from hell last year, Mike Rizzo is going to be making some big move this offseason, and they've got the money for it.
David Price
There isn't a ton to say about these guys. They're both great, and they're both going to get a ton of money this offseason. For Price, all signs are pointing to him signing with the Cubs. As for Greinke, I would be very surprised if he did anything but the stay with the Dodgers. For the most part, I'm against giving pitchers big contracts. They almost always end badly. That said, if they sign with the Cubs and Dodgers respectively, it won't be too bad because those are both teams who have chances to make the playoffs during their time there. Bottom line: If you have a roster with a chance to go all the way soon, go ahead and sign him, if not, don't. It will end badly.
Johnny Cueto
Cueto self-destructed during the last half of the season, but because of two good starts in the playoffs, he's going to get paid like none of that happened. As ridiculous as that sounds, it's still a good gamble. He's only 29 and his time with the Royals could have been just a hiccup. As I mentioned, above, it's rarely a good idea to sign a pitcher to a long contract, but teams may have no choice for him. He'll get a big deal from someone contending.
Mike Pelfrey
His performance the last few years makes him an ideal fit for the Yomuri Giants of the Nippon Baseball League in Japan.
Jordan Zimmermann
Much like everyone else on the Nats, Zimmermann had an underwhelming season last year, going 13-10 with a 3.66 ERA. That said, even if he never comes back to his 2014 form, he's a reliable number two or three starter for any team looking for a starter but doesn't want to spend a ton of money, like Baltimore.
Matt Wieters
Wieters will never fulfill the expectations people had for him as a rookie, but he's a solid bat from the catching position if he's healthy, batting a career .258/.320/.422. The Twins have been rumored to be interested in getting him, needing somebody after Kurt Suzuki's disastrous season. Wieters excels in Suzuki's biggest weakness (and there are a lot of them) which is throwing out runners. Wieters threw out 31% last year, which would've been eighth in the league if he had qualified. I wouldn't be surprised if he got around three years for 31 million.
Chris Davis
After and unprecedented 53 homer season in 2013 and the follow up year from hell, we have a pretty good idea of who he is. He'll give you power, walks and not a lot else.
Yoenis Cespedes
The second half MVP is drawing interest from the Giants and Angels among others. He's a candidate to get 200 million.
Denard Span
Span was on of the reasons the Nationals disappointed so much last year, injuries forced him to play just 61 games. He was steady in those, however, batting .301/.365/.431. The Mets are supposedly interested in him. If he goes there he'll likely get something like the 4 year $60 Million deal they gave Curtis Granderson.
Dexter Fowler
Fowler is an interesting case. Along with having one of the best names in the league, he's flown under the radar for several years now, as a leadoff hitter and speed threat for several horrible Rockies and one Astros team. That changed this year when he was the catalyst for the power-hitting Cubs. He'll be 30 next year, so he should be good for the next few years.
Jason Heyward
Heyward's been in the league so long it's easy to forget he's only 26. Up until last year he was underperforming, always playing solid, but being capable of doing so much more. Last year he received whatever treatment the Cardinals give all of their players and became the guy he's been teasing us with since 2010: The statistician's best friend who draws a ton of walks, steal bases and cover a ton of ground in center field. I'd argue that he has the most value of anyone in this class.
Justin Upton
If I were a GM, there would be several rules I'd have for myself which I would make sure never to break. These are things like "don't sign a pitcher for longer than four years unless you absolutely have to" and "Don't give up on your prospects too soon". I mention this because another one of them would be "never sign or trade for a member of the Upton family under any circumstances". The are unrelentingly inconsistent, sign them and they will disappoint. Some sucker will give Justin 100 million. I'm betting on the Nationals. After a season from hell last year, Mike Rizzo is going to be making some big move this offseason, and they've got the money for it.
Saturday, October 31, 2015
Observations Before Game Four
The Mets have looked overwhelmed
Last night's victory notwithstanding, the Royals have just overpowered the Mets so far. It's weird to say that considering the Mets are an Alex Gordon homer from being up 2-1 right now, but game two showed exactly why the Royals are up in this series. They saw 142 pitches and swung and missed six of them, they went 5-12 with runners in scoring position and Johnny Cueto, who's been pitching more like Mike Pelfrey than the guy he was on the Reds, gave up just two Lucas Duda singles en route the first World Series complete game since Jack Morris on 1991. I've been saying Royals in five since the beginning, and I'm sticking with that.
The Royals are the standard of how to build a contender
I mean, not counting the 20 or so years of futility before they got good. I mean going back to 2006, when Dayton Moore got the job as GM in Kansas City. Part of the reason this team is so good is because Moore knew what type of team to construct and stuck to the plan. KC had already taken Alex Gordon with the second overall pick the year before.
After whiffing on Luke Hochevar with the number one overall in 2006. Moore chose Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer numbers two and three in 2007 and 2008 respectively. In 2009, Zack Greinke had an ERA of 2.16 and won the Cy Young. Unfortunately, the Royals were still terrible and after the 2010 campaign he requested a trade. Moore dealt him to the Brewers for a group of players including Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain. Then he laid low and let everyone develop until this year, when he traded for Cueto and Ben Zobrist. Now they're two games from being champions. Well done, Mr. Moore.
Bartolo Colon pitching makes the world a better place
But you already knew that.
The power outage in game one was actually great
After there was a power outage in Fox's truck, we were sent to MLB International's feed of the game, with Matt Vasgersian and John Smoltz as the announcers. That inning and a half was terrific. They were a lot more relaxed than the Fox guys, Vasgersian just said what was happening, while Smoltz gave some pretty good analysis. Then Fox decided their viewers couldn't go fifteen minutes without hearing Joe Buck and Harold Reynolds and moved them into the MLB International area.
That was annoying. For as long as I can remember, Joe Buck has irritated the crap out of me. From the holier than thou reaction to Randy Moss mooning the Lambeau Field crowd to going out of his way to mention it when a pitcher has a no-hitter going to him not even attempting to be objective when his beloved Cardinals are playing. Reynolds is a good choice for a color guy in theory, he's charismatic and funny. Until he starts analyzing and says absolutely nothing of value. That leaves Tom Verducci. He's good, but can rarely get a word in with Reynolds saying the first thing that crosses his mind after every pitch.
David Wright deserves this
In a lot of ways he's the Met's version of Joe Mauer. Wright had his breakout year in 2005 when he was 22, Mauer a year later as a 23-year-old. They both had rough, injury filled years in 2011but still looked like easy future hall-of-famers before their production sloped downward quickly in 2014. They've both dealt with some unfair criticism from the over expecting local media. But last night, when Wright launched that homer into the left field seats, none of that mattered. He had been the face of the franchise for ten years and he had finally proved himself.
Last night's victory notwithstanding, the Royals have just overpowered the Mets so far. It's weird to say that considering the Mets are an Alex Gordon homer from being up 2-1 right now, but game two showed exactly why the Royals are up in this series. They saw 142 pitches and swung and missed six of them, they went 5-12 with runners in scoring position and Johnny Cueto, who's been pitching more like Mike Pelfrey than the guy he was on the Reds, gave up just two Lucas Duda singles en route the first World Series complete game since Jack Morris on 1991. I've been saying Royals in five since the beginning, and I'm sticking with that.
The Royals are the standard of how to build a contender
I mean, not counting the 20 or so years of futility before they got good. I mean going back to 2006, when Dayton Moore got the job as GM in Kansas City. Part of the reason this team is so good is because Moore knew what type of team to construct and stuck to the plan. KC had already taken Alex Gordon with the second overall pick the year before.
After whiffing on Luke Hochevar with the number one overall in 2006. Moore chose Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer numbers two and three in 2007 and 2008 respectively. In 2009, Zack Greinke had an ERA of 2.16 and won the Cy Young. Unfortunately, the Royals were still terrible and after the 2010 campaign he requested a trade. Moore dealt him to the Brewers for a group of players including Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain. Then he laid low and let everyone develop until this year, when he traded for Cueto and Ben Zobrist. Now they're two games from being champions. Well done, Mr. Moore.
Bartolo Colon pitching makes the world a better place
But you already knew that.
The power outage in game one was actually great
After there was a power outage in Fox's truck, we were sent to MLB International's feed of the game, with Matt Vasgersian and John Smoltz as the announcers. That inning and a half was terrific. They were a lot more relaxed than the Fox guys, Vasgersian just said what was happening, while Smoltz gave some pretty good analysis. Then Fox decided their viewers couldn't go fifteen minutes without hearing Joe Buck and Harold Reynolds and moved them into the MLB International area.
That was annoying. For as long as I can remember, Joe Buck has irritated the crap out of me. From the holier than thou reaction to Randy Moss mooning the Lambeau Field crowd to going out of his way to mention it when a pitcher has a no-hitter going to him not even attempting to be objective when his beloved Cardinals are playing. Reynolds is a good choice for a color guy in theory, he's charismatic and funny. Until he starts analyzing and says absolutely nothing of value. That leaves Tom Verducci. He's good, but can rarely get a word in with Reynolds saying the first thing that crosses his mind after every pitch.
David Wright deserves this
In a lot of ways he's the Met's version of Joe Mauer. Wright had his breakout year in 2005 when he was 22, Mauer a year later as a 23-year-old. They both had rough, injury filled years in 2011but still looked like easy future hall-of-famers before their production sloped downward quickly in 2014. They've both dealt with some unfair criticism from the over expecting local media. But last night, when Wright launched that homer into the left field seats, none of that mattered. He had been the face of the franchise for ten years and he had finally proved himself.
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